Publication: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2024
Loading...
Published
2024-05-16
ISSN
Date
2024-05-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The economy slowed more than expected due to sluggish external demand and delayed budget approval. Expanding private consumption and tourism continued to drive services growth, albeit at a slower pace. Inflation increased due to the removal of energy subsidies and elevated food prices but remained the lowest among emerging markets. The delayed budget approval led to minimal public spending in Q1. However, the recent enactment of the FY24 budget and the upcoming rollout of the Digital Wallet cash transfer in Q4 buoyed the near-term growth outlook. Despite a current account surplus, the Thai baht depreciated in April due to a delay to the Fed’s easing cycle and concerns over the Thai economy and the fiscal implications of the Digital Wallet.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2024. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2024. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41552 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, August 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-03)Growth accelerated in Q2 to 2.3 percent, slightly above expectations, but the recovery continued to lag ASEAN peers. In June, data indicated a subdued recovery, with activity slowing and consumer confidence declining amid heightened political uncertainty. While manufacturing growth expanded modestly for the full quarter, June activity data shows a renewed decline, and the growth in tourist arrivals slowed. The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, September 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Economic activity improved, driven by external demand for exports and tourism. Manufacturing growth turned positive, supported by a surge in goods exports. However, internal drivers weighed on growth. Private consumption growth decelerated, impacted by stricter credit conditions. The acceleration of fiscal spending proved slower than expected, but a higher FY25 budget spending could support growth. The revised digital wallet is expected to boost gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Thai baht appreciated driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus. Inflation remained among the lowest in emerging markets, falling to 0.4 percent, due to lower energy prices; core inflation remained subdued due to weak domestic demand.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, 17 January 2024(Washington, DC, 2024-01-22)The economy sustained its gradual recovery, buoyed by strong private consumption and improving goods exports but hampered by contracting manufacturing production. The economy is projected to grow 2.5 percent in 2023 and accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024. Inflation remained negative for the third consecutive month and stayed well below peers, primarily due to falling energy and food prices as well as energy subsidies. The marginal increase in the minimum wage for 2024 is unlikely to exert significant pressure on inflation. The planned fiscal stimulus measures are expected to provide a short-term boost to growth but will delay fiscal consolidation. In December, the Thai baht appreciated against major trading partners, although net foreign portfolio outflows were the largest in three months.Publication Türkiye Economic Monitor, March 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-03)Türkiye’s economic policies helped quickly recover from the COVID pandemic. The policies being implemented since late 2021 were built on loose monetary policy, prudent fiscal policy, boosting exports and employment, and managed to deliver strong GDP growth in 2022. These policies, -in addition to the rise in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and the global monetary tightening cycle-, however also led to a very rapid increase in inflation, a widening of the current account deficit and the decline in the reserves which in turn affected investors’ risk perception adversely and increased macro financial pressures in the run up to the May 2023 elections. As a consequence, the growth momentum also slowed down starting from the second half of 2022. Following the elections, the new government started a process of normalization in macroeconomic policies in 2023H2 with an emphasis on tightening monetary policy to achieve disinflation. The monetary policy rate hikes, ongoing simplification in the macroprudential policy framework, and the correction in the exchange rate since May 2023 have helped to gradually rebuild confidence in the economy, and the tax hikes have helped reduce the fiscal deficit. The impact of the new policy framework has started to be reflected in the reduction in risk premia, realignment of interest rates, strengthening in foreign exchange reserves, and the improvements in the assessment of credit rating agencies.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, February 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-11)Thailand's economic recovery lagged further behind ASEAN peers as growth was a disappointing 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter and resulted in slower annual growth of 1.9 percent in 2023. Growth was hampered by weak external sector and delayed budget approval. In December, economic activity softened due to weak manufacturing, investment, and goods export. Inflation remained negative for the third consecutive month due to falling energy and food prices as well as energy subsidies. In this context, the Bank of Thailand held its policy rate. The fiscal deficit decreased due to the delayed budget approval. In January, the Thai baht remained stable against major trading partners, despite significant net foreign portfolio outflows.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.