Publication:
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, September 2024

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (384.17 KB)
56 downloads
English Text (22.21 KB)
5 downloads
Date
2024-10-23
ISSN
Published
2024-10-23
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Economic activity improved, driven by external demand for exports and tourism. Manufacturing growth turned positive, supported by a surge in goods exports. However, internal drivers weighed on growth. Private consumption growth decelerated, impacted by stricter credit conditions. The acceleration of fiscal spending proved slower than expected, but a higher FY25 budget spending could support growth. The revised digital wallet is expected to boost gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Thai baht appreciated driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus. Inflation remained among the lowest in emerging markets, falling to 0.4 percent, due to lower energy prices; core inflation remained subdued due to weak domestic demand.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2024. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, September 2024. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42285 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-16) World Bank
    The economy slowed more than expected due to sluggish external demand and delayed budget approval. Expanding private consumption and tourism continued to drive services growth, albeit at a slower pace. Inflation increased due to the removal of energy subsidies and elevated food prices but remained the lowest among emerging markets. The delayed budget approval led to minimal public spending in Q1. However, the recent enactment of the FY24 budget and the upcoming rollout of the Digital Wallet cash transfer in Q4 buoyed the near-term growth outlook. Despite a current account surplus, the Thai baht depreciated in April due to a delay to the Fed’s easing cycle and concerns over the Thai economy and the fiscal implications of the Digital Wallet.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-03) World Bank
    Growth accelerated in Q2 to 2.3 percent, slightly above expectations, but the recovery continued to lag ASEAN peers. In June, data indicated a subdued recovery, with activity slowing and consumer confidence declining amid heightened political uncertainty. While manufacturing growth expanded modestly for the full quarter, June activity data shows a renewed decline, and the growth in tourist arrivals slowed. The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-24) World Bank
    The economy decelerated slightly. Manufacturing and private consumption weakened while exports and tourism continued to support growth. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in 2024, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year driven by increased budget execution and goods exports. Despite low government investment disbursement, the THB 10,000 cash handouts for low-income households may stimulate growth. However, flooding poses downside risks to growth and may add to price pressure. Inflation edged up due to fresh food and core inflation. The Thai baht appreciated due to expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and a current account surplus. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, 17 January 2024
    (Washington, DC, 2024-01-22) World Bank
    The economy sustained its gradual recovery, buoyed by strong private consumption and improving goods exports but hampered by contracting manufacturing production. The economy is projected to grow 2.5 percent in 2023 and accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024. Inflation remained negative for the third consecutive month and stayed well below peers, primarily due to falling energy and food prices as well as energy subsidies. The marginal increase in the minimum wage for 2024 is unlikely to exert significant pressure on inflation. The planned fiscal stimulus measures are expected to provide a short-term boost to growth but will delay fiscal consolidation. In December, the Thai baht appreciated against major trading partners, although net foreign portfolio outflows were the largest in three months.
  • Publication
    Vietnam Macro Monitoring, May 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank
    Industrial production showed a significant increase, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growing by 2.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) and 8.9 percent year-on-year (y/y), attributed to improved exports, particularly in manufacturing sectors. Retail sales experienced a modest recovery, growth rate indicated that consumer demand remains relatively weak. Both exports and imports experienced a surge, with exports and imports growing. The y/y growth rates were also substantial, suggesting increased demand from trade partners. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments and disbursements were solid, with the majority of FDI flowing into manufacturing and real estate sectors. Inflation rates remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4.4 percent y/y and core inflation slightly moderating. The Vietnamese Dong (VND) continued to face depreciation pressure against the US Dollar (USD), and the interbank interest rates reflected a tightening of liquidity by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Public revenue collection improved, but public expenditures and investment disbursements showed a slower pace. The government and SBV proposed measures to support the economy, including extending VAT reduction, reducing lending interest rates, and advancing the implementation of revised real estate laws. The report also notes that while there is a recovery in external demand, domestic demand and consumption show mixed signs. The authorities' measures aim to support the economy, but there are concerns about the impact of a strong US dollar and interest rate reductions on the exchange rate. The recommendation is to continue supporting aggregate demand through capital expenditures.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Supply-Side Regulatory Drivers for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23) Ereshchenko, Viktoriya; Popic, Elena
    The brief is the first in a two-part series that provides an overview of the electricity sector's demand and supply side environmental regulations. This brief focuses on supply-side regulations and investigates their role in promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy integration. Energy efficiency and renewable energy are recognized as main contributors to sustainability and resilience within electricity supply systems. Yet the importance of supply-side regulations has been studied to a lesser extent in the existing literature. This brief aims to help fill this gap. Analysis of global data suggests that comprehensive energy efficiency mandates for utilities are associated with lower transmission and distribution losses and, thus, higher efficiency in the electricity supply system. Additionally, the analysis reveals a positive and significant association between robust regulations on electricity network connection and use, and the share of renewable energy in electricity capacity. These results underscore the importance of policies promoting energy efficiency programs and establishing robust regulatory frameworks governing network connection and use. The second brief in this two-part series will cover demand-side policy measures on environmental sustainability and will also present new B-READY data on the environmentally sustainable use of energy.
  • Publication
    Finance and Prosperity 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-29) World Bank
    While financial sector risks in the larger and higher per capita countries are moderate, half of lower-income countries face significant risks over the next 12 months. Nearly 70 percent of countries facing high financial sector risks are currently not adequately prepared to handle financial stress. The report also identifies a particular risk facing financial sectors in several countries: a large and growing exposure to sovereign debt. This exposure surged to its highest level in the past decade. Finally, the report looks at how countries can enable more climate finance through the banking sector without compromising on the important goals of financial sector stability and inclusion for underserved people.
  • Publication
    South Asia Development Update, October 2024: Women, Jobs, and Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-10) World Bank
    South Asia’s growth is on track to exceed earlier expectations, in a broad-based upturn. The region is expected to remain the fastest-growing among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Several risks could upend this generally promising outlook, including extreme weather events, social unrest, and policy missteps, such as reform delays. But South Asian countries also have considerable untapped potential that could help them further boost productivity growth and employment and adapt to climate change. In particular, with about two-thirds of the region’s working-age women out of the labor force, raising female employment rates to those of men could increase per capita income by as much as one-half. Measures to accelerate job creation, remove obstacles to women working, and equalize gender rights would be more effective if combined with a shift toward social norms that looked more favorably on working women. Also, most South Asian countries rank among the EMDEs least open to global trade and investment. Greater openness could boost women’s employment, spur the growth of firms, and allow the region to take better advantage of the reshaping of global supply chains and trade. Reducing the cost of conducting business could help the region better harness large-scale remittance inflows.
  • Publication
    Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17) Izvorski, Ivailo; Kasyanenko, Sergiy; Lokshin, Michael M.; Torre, Iván
    Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update, October 2024: Jobs and Technology
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-07) World Bank
    East Asia and the Pacific, seen in the context of the world economy, stands out as a paragon of development. Despite the recent ravages of the pandemic and the persistent tensions of geopolitics, the region is growing at stably high rates and the benefits are widely shared. But compared to its own past and potential, the region’s economic performance is less impressive. Growth is still below pre-pandemic rates, except in Indonesia, and output has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels in several countries, especially in the Pacific. This Economic Update highlights three key developments: shifting regional growth dynamics as China’s growth slows, changing trade patterns due to global tensions, and the impact of technologies such as robots, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms on jobs. The report calls for productivity-enhancing structural reforms to strengthen domestic growth drivers through; deeper international trade agreements to foster more open and stable trade regimes; deeper technical, digital, and soft skills while addressing impediments to labor mobility, factor price distortions and expanding social protection for workers in the digital informal economy to boost productivity and employment.