Publication:
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2024

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (327.15 KB)
85 downloads
English Text (24.62 KB)
11 downloads
Date
2024-12-24
ISSN
Published
2024-12-24
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The economy decelerated slightly. Manufacturing and private consumption weakened while exports and tourism continued to support growth. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in 2024, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year driven by increased budget execution and goods exports. Despite low government investment disbursement, the THB 10,000 cash handouts for low-income households may stimulate growth. However, flooding poses downside risks to growth and may add to price pressure. Inflation edged up due to fresh food and core inflation. The Thai baht appreciated due to expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and a current account surplus. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2024. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2024. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42584 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, August 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-03) World Bank
    Growth accelerated in Q2 to 2.3 percent, slightly above expectations, but the recovery continued to lag ASEAN peers. In June, data indicated a subdued recovery, with activity slowing and consumer confidence declining amid heightened political uncertainty. While manufacturing growth expanded modestly for the full quarter, June activity data shows a renewed decline, and the growth in tourist arrivals slowed. The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, 30 July 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-31) World Bank
    Recent indicators of economic activity point to a gradual recovery, supported by improvement in manufacturing production, goods exports, and tourism. The number of tourist arrivals expanded, nearing pre-pandemic levels. However, private consumption moderated. Growth is projected to accelerate from 1.9 percent in 2023 to 2.4 percent in 2024. The Bank of Thailand has maintained a neutral policy rate and anticipates inflation to return to its target by Q4 2024. The banking sector remained stable with adequate buffers, though vulnerabilities in household debt and small and medium enterprise (SME) non-performing loans (NPLs) persist. The government has approved a flagship Digital Wallet program, expected to boost gross domestic product (GDP) in the short term and rolled out a soft loan program to support SMEs. The Thai baht depreciated due to delays in the Fed’s easing cycle and ongoing concerns about the Thai economy.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-04) World Bank
    November economic activity data suggests gradual growth, driven by strong external demand, particularly for goods exports and tourism, as well as a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal stimulus. While tourism remained a key growth driver, with a notable increase in arrivals, manufacturing continued to contract, particularly in the automotive sector. Amid stronger private consumption, inflation picked up but stayed below the central bank's target. On the policy front, the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate and the government introduced measures to alleviate household debt pressures. The Thai baht appreciated due to the rising current account surplus, despite ongoing portfolio outflows.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, April 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-01) World Bank
    Thailand's economic activity showed mixed signals in February. A sharp contraction in private investment offset steady consumption and strong exports due to rising uncertainty. Goods exports remained a key driver, bolstered by robust shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid rising global trade uncertainties. However, mounting risks from international trade uncertainty are a concern. The tourism recovery softened, influenced by seasonal factors and a decline in Chinese arrivals. Additionally, the recent earthquake may negatively impact future tourist numbers. Inflation continued to decline in March, prompting further monetary easing. Financial markets weakened as risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty eroded investor confidence, resulting in Thai baht depreciation despite a substantial current account surplus.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, February 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-11) World Bank
    Thailand's economic recovery lagged further behind ASEAN peers as growth was a disappointing 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter and resulted in slower annual growth of 1.9 percent in 2023. Growth was hampered by weak external sector and delayed budget approval. In December, economic activity softened due to weak manufacturing, investment, and goods export. Inflation remained negative for the third consecutive month due to falling energy and food prices as well as energy subsidies. In this context, the Bank of Thailand held its policy rate. The fiscal deficit decreased due to the delayed budget approval. In January, the Thai baht remained stable against major trading partners, despite significant net foreign portfolio outflows.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17) Izvorski, Ivailo; Kasyanenko, Sergiy; Lokshin, Michael M.; Torre, Iván
    Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Services Unbound
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09) World Bank
    Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Kenya Country Economic Memorandum
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-31) World Bank
    Kenya’s economy has been growing solidly but maintaining and increasing growth will depend on increasing private investment and productivity. Between 2010 and 2019, Kenya maintained a steady annual growth rate of 5 percent and the economy was able to rebound relatively rapidly from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, productivity growth did not make much of a contribution to output growth, and growth has been lower than that of some other, fast-growing middle-income countries. This points to the potential for Kenya to increase growth via productivity gains, by expanding the role of the private sector and, especially, accelerating private investment. Doing this has become more urgent as the Government's fiscal space to invest has shrunk, making it crucial also for the sustainability of growth to identify new opportunities for the private sector to contribute. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) focuses on the question of how seizing opportunities in Kenya’s services sector can contribute more effectively to long-term economic growth. This report argues that growing the services sector should not be seen as an alternative to industrialization, but rather as an enabler of economy-wide growth, including in manufacturing, and in agriculture too. It focuses on five channels through which services contribute to jobs, economic transformation and inclusion: (i) the need to SHIFT the services sector to higher value-added activities; (ii) how to LINK services better to other economic activities to grow its enabling role; (iii) how to BOOST the productivity of the sector through technology and increasing competition; (iv) how to TRADE more services through removing regulatory barriers to trade and investment; and finally (v) how to SECURE people’s economic livelihoods better, especially those working in lower-skilled and economically more vulnerable services subsectors. Growing the contribution of services will require a program of structural reforms and complementary efforts.