Publication: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, January 2025
Loading...
Date
2025-02-04
ISSN
Published
2025-02-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
November economic activity data suggests gradual growth, driven by strong external demand, particularly for goods exports and tourism, as well as a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal stimulus. While tourism remained a key growth driver, with a notable increase in arrivals, manufacturing continued to contract, particularly in the automotive sector. Amid stronger private consumption, inflation picked up but stayed below the central bank's target. On the policy front, the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate and the government introduced measures to alleviate household debt pressures. The Thai baht appreciated due to the rising current account surplus, despite ongoing portfolio outflows.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2025. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, January 2025. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42757 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, April 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-01)Thailand's economic activity showed mixed signals in February. A sharp contraction in private investment offset steady consumption and strong exports due to rising uncertainty. Goods exports remained a key driver, bolstered by robust shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid rising global trade uncertainties. However, mounting risks from international trade uncertainty are a concern. The tourism recovery softened, influenced by seasonal factors and a decline in Chinese arrivals. Additionally, the recent earthquake may negatively impact future tourist numbers. Inflation continued to decline in March, prompting further monetary easing. Financial markets weakened as risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty eroded investor confidence, resulting in Thai baht depreciation despite a substantial current account surplus.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, March 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-24)Thailand’s economy grew by 3.2 percent year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by a rebound in public investment and strong electronics exports, while private consumption saw a modest boost from fiscal stimulus. High-frequency indicators in January suggest continued expansion, supported by strong goods exports, improving investment, and a tourism rebound despite global trade uncertainty. The Bank of Thailand lowered the policy rate to 2.0 percent in February to ease debt pressures, while inflation remained within target. Despite a stronger current account balance, financial markets fluctuated, with the Thai baht depreciating in early March on general US dollar strength.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC, 2022-07-19)The economy showed better-than-expected signs of improvement in Q2 2022 due to stronger domestic demand, a rebound in the tourism sector, and continuing expansion of goods exports. However, rising inflationary pressure and slowing global demand are creating significant headwinds to the outlook. The economy is expected to grow at 2.9 percent in 2022 and 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation surged to a 14-year high in June, prompting the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to signal interest rate normalization. The fiscal deficit remained large as the government continued to ramp up measures to counter the impact of the rising cost of living and the pandemic, including through support for the tourism sector and lower-income groups as well a s subsidies on energy prices. The Thai banking system remains resilient, despite deteriorated asset quality. The Thai baht continued to depreciate in July as investor confidence waned and the current account deficit persisted.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-24)The economy decelerated slightly. Manufacturing and private consumption weakened while exports and tourism continued to support growth. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in 2024, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year driven by increased budget execution and goods exports. Despite low government investment disbursement, the THB 10,000 cash handouts for low-income households may stimulate growth. However, flooding poses downside risks to growth and may add to price pressure. Inflation edged up due to fresh food and core inflation. The Thai baht appreciated due to expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and a current account surplus. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-09-23)The economy picked up in Q3 2022, as mobility, tourist inflows, and employment improved, in line with a projected strengthening domestic recovery in H2. However, goods exports softened due to weakened global demand. Inflation remained the highest among the major ASEAN economies, driven by supply-side factors, while demand-pull pressure remained muted. The authorities responded with social assistance as well as food and fuel subsidies. While the fiscal consolidation path has been largely maintained thus far, additional borrowing to support energy subsidies may be needed. The recently announced average minimum wage increase of 5 percent is intended to help alleviate the pressure of elevated costs on lower income groups. While the magnitude is not large compared to past wage and inflation developments, it may contribute to inflation and underemployment. The Thai baht depreciated due to expectations of the Fed tightening and the widening current account deficit.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course provides the first comprehensive analysis of the pandemic’s toll on poverty in developing countries. It identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. Fiscal policies offset the impact of COVID-19 on poverty in many high-income countries, but those policies offset barely one quarter of the pandemic’s impact in low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries. Improving support to households as crises continue will require reorienting protective spending away from generally regressive and inefficient subsidies and toward a direct transfer support system—a first key priority. Reorienting fiscal spending toward supporting growth is a second key priority identified by the report. Some of the highest-value public spending often pays out decades later. Amid crises, it is difficult to protect such investments, but it is essential to do so. Finally, it is not enough just to spend wisely - when additional revenue does need to be mobilized, it must be done in a way that minimizes reductions in poor people’s incomes. The report highlights how exploring underused forms of progressive taxation and increasing the efficiency of tax collection can help in this regard. Poverty and Shared Prosperity is a biennial series that reports on global trends in poverty and shared prosperity. Each report also explores a central challenge to poverty reduction and boosting shared prosperity, assessing what works well and what does not in different settings. By bringing together the latest evidence, this corporate flagship report provides a foundation for informed advocacy around ending extreme poverty and improving the lives of the poorest in every country in the world. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/poverty-and-shared-prosperity.Publication World Development Report 2017(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-01-30)Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? This book addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.Publication Supporting Youth at Risk(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06)Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.Publication Four Decades of Poverty Reduction in China(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Regardless of the poverty line used, the speed and scale of China’s poverty reduction are historically unprecedented. Over the past 40 years, the number of people in China with incomes below US$1.90 per day—the international poverty line as defined by the World Bank to track global extreme poverty—has fallen by close to 800 million, accounting for almost three-quarters of the global reduction in extreme poverty. In 2021, China declared that it had eradicated extreme poverty according to its national poverty threshold, and that it had built a “moderately prosperous society in all respects.” However, a significant number of people remain vulnerable, with incomes below a threshold more typically used to define poverty in upper-middle-income countries. China has set a new goal of approaching common prosperity by 2035, which can help keep the policy focus on the vulnerable population. Four Decades of Poverty Reduction in China: Drivers, Insights for the World, and the Way Ahead explores the key drivers of China’s poverty alleviation achievements and considers the lessons of China’s experience for other developing countries. The report also makes suggestions for China’s future policies. China’s approach to poverty reduction was based on two pillars. The first aimed for broad-based economic transformation to open new economic opportunities and raise average incomes. The second was the recognition that targeted support was needed to alleviate persistent poverty; this support was initially provided to disadvantaged areas and later to individual households. The success of China’s economic development and the associated reduction of poverty also benefited from effective governance, which helped coordinate multiple government agencies and induce cooperation from nongovernment stakeholders. To illustrate the role of broad-based economic transformation for poverty alleviation, separate sections of the report analyze growing agricultural productivity, incremental industrialization, managed urbanization and rural-to-urban migration, and the role of infrastructure.