Publication: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2025
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2025-10-22
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2025-10-23
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Fiscal conditions remained stable, with a modest widening of the deficit to 3.1 percent of GDP. New stimulus measures are expected to support short-term demand without breaching the public debt ceiling. Inflation stayed negative, reflecting lower energy and food prices amid subdued domestic demand. The central bank kept the policy rate unchanged, citing limited policy space. Thailand’s growth momentum has slowed further as manufacturing activity and services weakened as projected. Tourism remained subdued, largely due to fewer Chinese visitors. Goods exports also slowed as earlier front-loaded orders faded, particularly in agriculture and industrial goods. The Thai baht depreciated in early October as the US dollar appreciated and the current account turned negative.
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“World Bank. 2025. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2025. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43890 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-24)The economy decelerated slightly. Manufacturing and private consumption weakened while exports and tourism continued to support growth. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in 2024, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year driven by increased budget execution and goods exports. Despite low government investment disbursement, the THB 10,000 cash handouts for low-income households may stimulate growth. However, flooding poses downside risks to growth and may add to price pressure. Inflation edged up due to fresh food and core inflation. The Thai baht appreciated due to expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and a current account surplus. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-04)November economic activity data suggests gradual growth, driven by strong external demand, particularly for goods exports and tourism, as well as a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal stimulus. While tourism remained a key growth driver, with a notable increase in arrivals, manufacturing continued to contract, particularly in the automotive sector. Amid stronger private consumption, inflation picked up but stayed below the central bank's target. On the policy front, the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate and the government introduced measures to alleviate household debt pressures. The Thai baht appreciated due to the rising current account surplus, despite ongoing portfolio outflows.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, April 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-01)Thailand's economic activity showed mixed signals in February. A sharp contraction in private investment offset steady consumption and strong exports due to rising uncertainty. Goods exports remained a key driver, bolstered by robust shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid rising global trade uncertainties. However, mounting risks from international trade uncertainty are a concern. The tourism recovery softened, influenced by seasonal factors and a decline in Chinese arrivals. Additionally, the recent earthquake may negatively impact future tourist numbers. Inflation continued to decline in March, prompting further monetary easing. Financial markets weakened as risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty eroded investor confidence, resulting in Thai baht depreciation despite a substantial current account surplus.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-09)Thailand’s economic performance remained mixed in March with stable private consumption and robust exports offset by weak private investment amid rising uncertainty. While fiscal stimulus supported consumption, softening consumer confidence and weak manufacturing production pose risks to the outlook. The tourism recovery slowed, with fewer tourist arrivals particularly from China. Inflation turned negative for the first time in over a year, prompting the Bank of Thailand to lower its policy rate amid a dimmer economic outlook. Financial markets experienced volatility due to global trade uncertainty. The Thai baht depreciated against the US dollar in early April, before notably appreciating in the following weeks.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, March 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-24)Thailand’s economy grew by 3.2 percent year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by a rebound in public investment and strong electronics exports, while private consumption saw a modest boost from fiscal stimulus. High-frequency indicators in January suggest continued expansion, supported by strong goods exports, improving investment, and a tourism rebound despite global trade uncertainty. The Bank of Thailand lowered the policy rate to 2.0 percent in February to ease debt pressures, while inflation remained within target. Despite a stronger current account balance, financial markets fluctuated, with the Thai baht depreciating in early March on general US dollar strength.
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