Economic Updates and Modeling

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  • Publication
    Morocco Economic Monitor, Summer 2024: Unlocking the Potential of the Private Sector to Spur Growth and Job Creation
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-17) World Bank
    This report includes a special focus chapter focused on the dynamics of the Moroccan private sector. It is based on the results of an analysis jointly conducted with the Moroccan Observatory of Small and Medium Enterprises (OMTPME) which exploits a comprehensive database on formal firms. The productivity performance of the private sector has been lackluster, primarily due to a worsening of allocative efficiency. Larger firms tend to exhibit a lower productivity than their smaller peers, suggesting that markets are not sufficiently rewarding more efficient and innovative firms. In addition, Moroccan SMEs struggle to grow, and the density of High Growth Firms remains very low. This is problematic feature of the private sector given that in other settings such firms have been shown to disproportionately contribute to job creation. Addressing the constraints facing the private sector would help overcome the disappointing job creation capacity that the Moroccan economy has exhibited in recent years.
  • Publication
    Chad Economic Update April 2024 - Special chapter Hosting Refugees in an Inclusive Manner
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-16) World Bank
    The Chad Economic Update is a World Bank report series produced once a year, that assesses recent economic and social developments and prospects in Chad. The Economic Update also provides an in-depth examination of a selected policy issue, outlining its current challenges and potential going forward. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Chad’s evolving economy.
  • Publication
    Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2024: Sustaining Growth Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-12) World Bank
    The Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country. The IEM’s coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged on Iran.
  • Publication
    Thailand Economic Monitor, July 2024: Unlocking the Growth Potential of Secondary Cities
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank Group
    The economic recovery faltered due to global and domestic headwinds as growth fell to 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2024 Q1. The current account remained positive at 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q1 2024 but underlying weaknesses persist. Inflation has turned positive but remained the lowest among emerging markets due to energy subsidies and a weak recovery. The financial system remained stable amid improving but weak profitability, although risks associated with high levels of household debt persist. The fiscal stance has become less expansionary as capital spending lapsed due to the delayed budget. The economy is projected to recover in 2024 supported by sustained private consumption as well as tourism and goods exports recovery. Thailand faces the mounting challenge of reconciling fiscal sustainability and short-term stimulus. Empowering Thailand’s secondary cities would be a significant paradigm shift. The possibilities suggested in this chapter cannot be realized through marginal adjustments to existing policies. An intergovernmental fiscal policy that puts more responsibility and accountability on local government, and frees communities to plan the futures, will require systemic change. The transition will require legislative and institutional reforms to grant LAOs increased authority while ensuring greater accountability. It will require local planning processes that are responsive and adaptable to market demands for land, housing, labor, and transportation.
  • Publication
    Tanzania Economic Update - Harnessing the Opportunity for a Climate Smart and Competitiveness Livestock Sector in Tanzania
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank
    Tanzania has managed a steadily robust growth path amid multiple external shocks, with low and stable inflation by regional standards. While poverty reduction has progressed slowly, the government increased public spending on goods, services, and transfers during the first eight months (8M) of FY2023/24 to enhance the provision of priority social services. Domestic revenue observed double-digit growth, indicating the government’s commitment to revenue mobilization and fiscal consolidation. The current-account deficit narrowed, driven by increased imports and a surge in foreign exchange earnings from the tourism sector. However, foreign exchange challenges persist, which has motivated the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) to raise the policy rate and implement other prudent monetary policies. Over the medium term, the economy is set to grow at around 6 percent, supported by escalated private investments resulting from a strengthened business environment. A positive macroeconomic outlook and an enhanced agricultural productivity have contributed to the estimated decline in poverty. Major risks to the outlook include incomplete implementation of reforms, climate change, and a deterioration of the global economy.
  • Publication
    Somalia Economic Update, Ninth Edition: Addressing Climate Change Challenges for Economic Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-08) World Bank
    The 9th edition of the World Bank’s Somalia Economic Update (SEU) assesses key economic developments, prospects, and policies in Somalia. The Update is intended for a wide audience including policy makers, business leaders, the community of analysts and professionals engaged in economic debate, and the public. This SEU addresses climate change challenges for economic growth. It highlights the urgent need of the Government of Somalia to support sustained and long-term growth, anchored on macroeconomic stability and broad-based structural reforms, while laying the groundwork for sustainable development and enhanced climate resilience, ensuring a more secure future for its people.
  • Publication
    Benin Economic Update: Adapting to Climate Change for Sustainable and Resilient Economic Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-03) World Bank
    Economic growth remained strong and resilient at 6.4 percent in 2023 from 6.3 percent in 2022, despite the various shocks the country faced, including adverse climate conditions, policy changes in Nigeria, and border closures with Niger affecting trade. On the supply side, the agriculture sector's growth improved slightly, growing by 5.1 percent, while the service sector is estimated to have grown by 6.6 percent. The primary sector did not return to pre-pandemic growth levels in 2023, with cotton production still below 2021 levels, partially compensated by higher production of other industrial crops and food. The secondary sector, particularly the manufacturing industry and construction, although recording a moderation in their dynamism, continues to support growth. On the demand side, investment remains strong and is the main driver of growth. Private consumption growth fell due to rising prices, particularly of gasoline (kpayo), while public consumption increased to maintain the well-being of the population and support economic growth. Benin's average GDP growth in 2021-23 was higher than in 2010-19 and compared favorably with regional peers. Growth is projected to stabilize at 6.2 percent between 2024 and 2026 (average 3.5 percent per capita terms), driven by investment and the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ) expansion.
  • Publication
    CEMAC Economic Barometer, May 2024, Vol. 6
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-02) World Bank
    The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a semi-annual World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of (i) recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, and (ii) key development and reform priorities in the CEMAC region, followed by (iii) a brief assessment at the country level.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2024: Unleashing Indonesia’s Business Potential
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-24) World Bank
    At 5.1 percent in Q1-2024, GDP growth remains resilient surpassing the middle-income countries’ average. Robust private consumption accounted for 57 percent of GDP growth. This reflects consumer confidence supported by softening inflation in nonfood products, the hike in civil servant wages, and robust performance in consumer services. Public consumption rebounded in Q1-24 driven by election related and social spending. This rebound outweighs the negative contribution to growth of net exports as weak global demand and commodities price volatility have dampened exports earnings.
  • Publication
    Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2024: Livelihoods Under Threat
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-20) World Bank
    Myanmar’s economy continues to face significant challenges in 2024. Economic activity has been constrained by elevated conflict, increased macroeconomic volatility, and a challenging business environment. In addition to its ongoing impacts on household livelihoods and agricultural production, conflict continues to disrupt land border trade with China and Thailand, as well as domestic supply chains. Myanmar’s economy continues to face a range of constraints including elevated conflict, trade and logistics disruptions, rapidly rising prices, and shortages of a range of key inputs including labor, electricity, and imported inputs. Conflict has led to substantial displacement among affected populations, disrupted the transport of goods within the country, and blocked cross-border trade. The activation of the conscription law in February has reportedly prompted significant migration out of major urban areas toward rural border areas and to Thailand, with some firms reporting labor shortages as a result. Continued exchange rate depreciation and constrained access to import licenses has resulted in higher prices and ongoing shortages of imported inputs. And electricity outages have worsened further as gas-powered supply falters, with firms forced to use expensive diesel-powered generators to substitute for grid-based power. The economic outlook remains very weak, implying little respite for Myanmar’s households over the near to medium term.