Publication: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, March 2025
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2025-03-24
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2025-03-24
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Thailand’s economy grew by 3.2 percent year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by a rebound in public investment and strong electronics exports, while private consumption saw a modest boost from fiscal stimulus. High-frequency indicators in January suggest continued expansion, supported by strong goods exports, improving investment, and a tourism rebound despite global trade uncertainty. The Bank of Thailand lowered the policy rate to 2.0 percent in February to ease debt pressures, while inflation remained within target. Despite a stronger current account balance, financial markets fluctuated, with the Thai baht depreciating in early March on general US dollar strength.
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“World Bank. 2025. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, March 2025. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42979 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, April 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-01)Thailand's economic activity showed mixed signals in February. A sharp contraction in private investment offset steady consumption and strong exports due to rising uncertainty. Goods exports remained a key driver, bolstered by robust shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid rising global trade uncertainties. However, mounting risks from international trade uncertainty are a concern. The tourism recovery softened, influenced by seasonal factors and a decline in Chinese arrivals. Additionally, the recent earthquake may negatively impact future tourist numbers. Inflation continued to decline in March, prompting further monetary easing. Financial markets weakened as risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty eroded investor confidence, resulting in Thai baht depreciation despite a substantial current account surplus.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-04)November economic activity data suggests gradual growth, driven by strong external demand, particularly for goods exports and tourism, as well as a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal stimulus. While tourism remained a key growth driver, with a notable increase in arrivals, manufacturing continued to contract, particularly in the automotive sector. Amid stronger private consumption, inflation picked up but stayed below the central bank's target. On the policy front, the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate and the government introduced measures to alleviate household debt pressures. The Thai baht appreciated due to the rising current account surplus, despite ongoing portfolio outflows.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC, 2022-07-19)The economy showed better-than-expected signs of improvement in Q2 2022 due to stronger domestic demand, a rebound in the tourism sector, and continuing expansion of goods exports. However, rising inflationary pressure and slowing global demand are creating significant headwinds to the outlook. The economy is expected to grow at 2.9 percent in 2022 and 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation surged to a 14-year high in June, prompting the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to signal interest rate normalization. The fiscal deficit remained large as the government continued to ramp up measures to counter the impact of the rising cost of living and the pandemic, including through support for the tourism sector and lower-income groups as well a s subsidies on energy prices. The Thai banking system remains resilient, despite deteriorated asset quality. The Thai baht continued to depreciate in July as investor confidence waned and the current account deficit persisted.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC, 2022-08-23)The economic recovery continued to pick up in Q2 2022, expanding by 2.5 percent (yoy), due to a stronger-than-expected boost in private consumption and tourism, which offset weak goods exports. However, among the major ASEAN economies, Thailand’s recovery has proven to be the slowest and inflation the highest. To tame cost-push inflation, the Bank of Thailand recently began raising rates; however, monetary policy normalization is expected to be gradual as the recovery is not yet complete. The fiscal deficit remained large as the government continued to introduce measures to counter the impact of the rising cost of living and the pandemic. The rising cost of energy subsidies administered by the State Oil Fund may potentially add to public debt levels. The Thai baht strengthened due to expectations of a swifter economic recovery and the decline of the US dollar.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-03)Growth accelerated in Q2 to 2.3 percent, slightly above expectations, but the recovery continued to lag ASEAN peers. In June, data indicated a subdued recovery, with activity slowing and consumer confidence declining amid heightened political uncertainty. While manufacturing growth expanded modestly for the full quarter, June activity data shows a renewed decline, and the growth in tourist arrivals slowed. The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.
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