The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (OKR) is The World Bank’s official open access repository for its research outputs and knowledge products.
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Publication Algeria Economic Update, Spring 2025: Accelerating Productivity Gains for Diversified and Resilient Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-20) World BankAlgeria’s economic growth remained robust in 2024 but is expected to slow moderately in 2025. Strong investment momentum and robust growth in household consumption, both fueled by government spending, supported manufacturing and services activity, while agricultural production accelerated. However, growth in domestic demand boosted imports, which, combined with lower hydrocarbon production and exports, weighed on growth. Overall, non-hydrocarbon GDP grew at a pace of 4.8 percent, offsetting the 1.4 percent contraction in GDP from hydrocarbons. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2025, driven by the rebound in growth in the hydrocarbon sectors (+1.6 percent), boosted by the recovery of OPEC production quotas and gas production. Non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to slow (+3.6 percent), driven by the expected consolidation of public spending, which would be more marked for investment. Agricultural production is expected to remain robust despite limited rainfall, offsetting the slowdown in industry and services. The analysis of productivity trends in different sectors offers avenues for reflection to accelerate the structural transformation of the Algerian economy. The public-spending-led growth model resulted in important economic and social achievements in the 2000s, before slowing down in the last decade as the pace of spending growth became unsustainable. In doing so, this growth model has steered employment to low-value-added sectors, including non-commercial services and construction. In addition, a comparative analysis of Algerian productivity suggests a heterogeneous performance, with strong momentum in the agricultural sector contrasting with limited gains in the manufacturing sector. Thus, a growth acceleration could be achieved by increasing productivity gains in the manufacturing and services sectors, on the one hand, and a gradual reallocation of employment to high-value-added sectors on the other, combined with a gradual rebalancing of public spending. Such an economic transformation calls for targeted cross-cutting and sectoral policies to support growth and jobs in the private sector, while equipping workers with the necessary skills.Publication Laying the Foundations for a Sustainable Blue Economy in Ecuador: Assessing the Conservation Priorities and Gaps in the Territorial Sea of Ecuador to Support Marine Spatial Planning and Maximize the Blue Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-20) World BankThis report aims to support Ecuador in identifying priority marine and coastal areas for conservation within its territorial sea, considering its strategic goals as described in its 2015–2030 National Biodiversity Strategy and its commitment to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s “30 x 30 target” of 30 percent of land and marine areas conserved by 2030. The report also offers recommendations and actions that can be taken in the short, middle, and long term to achieve these recommendations.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2025: Turning the Tide?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-20) World BankLebanon’s economic outlook for 2025 is shaped by a fragile stabilization in the political and security environment. This follows the end of the conflict and the resolution of a two year political paralysis with the election of a president and the formation of a reform-oriented government. While this renewed momentum presents an opportunity to begin addressing Lebanon’s overlapping financial, economic, and institutional crises, the outlook remains highly contingent on sustained improvements in the security situation and tangible progress on key reforms. The real GDP contraction for 2024 has been revised downward to 7.1 percent, bringing the cumulative decline since 2019 to nearly 40 percent. The conflict and its aftermath have exacerbated poverty and vulnerability in Lebanon. Agriculture, commerce, and tourism, sectors accounting for 77 percent of economic losses, are key income sources for low-wage and informal workers now at risk. Reconstruction efforts remain slow, constrained by Lebanon’s ongoing financial crisis and a lack of external financing, which is unlikely to materialize without comprehensive reforms. Drawing on two decades of policy dialogue, technical assistance, and World Bank-financed projects, the Special Focus offers a contribution to the government’s reform agenda by outlining a targeted one-year policy action plan. The ministerial statement sets out four high-level overarching priorities: (i) halting financial and economic deterioration and identifying growth enablers; (ii) strengthening social security; (iii) combating waste and corruption; and (iv) preparing a fair parliamentary elections law (the latter falls outside the scope of the Special Focus). To support government reform, the Special Focus offers a comprehensive one-year policy action plan that brings together and distills key lessons from years of World Bank engagement and policy dialogue in Lebanon into a set of feasible, high-impact actions that align with the government’s stated objectives and can be implemented within its limited tenure. Proposed policy actions prioritized restoring macro-financial stability, rebuilding citizens’ trust, and laying the foundation for a new, successful economic development model.Publication Gulf Economic Update, June 2025: Smart Spending, Stronger Outcomes - Fiscal Policy for a Thriving GCC(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-20) Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad; Maseeh, Ashwaq Natiq; Luan, Zhao; Thelejane, Morakane; Ftomova, Olena; Youssef, Hoda; Kawalec, Tobias; Wang, Xinyue; Yacine, Ouahioune; Bogetić, ŽeljkoThis special focus chapter analyzes the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fostering economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. In doing so, the principal focus of the chapter is on fiscal multipliers, which measure the effect of changes in government spending or revenue on the country’s output (GDP). In simple terms, they quantify how much economic activity is generated by each dollar of fiscal policy action. The need to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy is especially relevant for GCC countries given their intensified economic diversification efforts in recent years. Globally, fiscal policy has been playing a growing role, with public expenditure as a share of GDP growing in more than 70 percent of all countries since the Global Financial Crisis. In the GCC, the share of fiscal expenditure in non-hydrocarbon GDP ranges between 36 percent and 84 percent. As public spending is often undertaken through large-scale public investments, this calls for a better understanding of the returns on GDP from those investments, the effectiveness of capital allocation, and whether fiscal policies are well designed to maximize employment and job creation, among other objectives. On the revenue side, most of the income is related to sales of hydrocarbon products, as hydrocarbon sales revenue makes up between 40 and 90 percent of overall government revenues in 2023. The main policy takeaway is that fiscal policy is broadly effective at stabilizing cyclical fluctuations of (non-hydrocarbon) output, especially during times of economic dearth. While fiscal multipliers in the GCC appear to be positive across the board, they are generally weak and less than one, in line with the estimates in the literature for a multitude of other countries. Policymakers should therefore not expect multiplying effects in response to stabilizing fiscal policy measures, which occur for fiscal multipliers that are larger than one. This does not, however, imply a total absence of fiscal policy impact on output. As the estimated multipliers are significantly larger during recessions, the findings make a robust case for adopting countercyclical fiscal policy. Such countercyclical policy should aim at an expansion of demand through fiscal stimulus only during demand-driven downturns.Publication Investment Facilitation: Implementation Handbook for Latin America and the Caribbean(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18) World BankThe World Trade Organization (WTO) Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFD) aims to increase the participation of developing countries and least-developed countries (LDCs) in global investment flows by improving both domestic and international business climates, making it easier for investors across all sectors to conduct business. The IFD Agreement establishes rules that create clear and consistent global standards for investment facilitation measures, enhance transparency between governments and businesses, simplify and accelerate administrative procedures, and provide a global forum to promote best practices and international cooperation. This Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Handbook is structured in such a way that each IFD provision can be reviewed independently, given the different nature of each provision in the Agreement. It offers policymakers focused on specific areas of investment facilitation the steps to conduct a diagnostic regarding the existence and effectiveness of a given measure in their country. It also provides reform implementation measures which, together with case studies and additional resources, make the Handbook a practical, day-to-day guide for implementing reforms. Volume I presents a summary of the Handbook, while Volume II contains a comprehensive analysis of the investment facilitation measures foreseen in the IFD Agreement.