Publication: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, February 2024
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2024-03-11
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2024-03-11
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Thailand's economic recovery lagged further behind ASEAN peers as growth was a disappointing 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter and resulted in slower annual growth of 1.9 percent in 2023. Growth was hampered by weak external sector and delayed budget approval. In December, economic activity softened due to weak manufacturing, investment, and goods export. Inflation remained negative for the third consecutive month due to falling energy and food prices as well as energy subsidies. In this context, the Bank of Thailand held its policy rate. The fiscal deficit decreased due to the delayed budget approval. In January, the Thai baht remained stable against major trading partners, despite significant net foreign portfolio outflows.
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“World Bank. 2024. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, February 2024. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41165 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, July 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-24)The economy maintained moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and tourism. Declining inflation alleviated pressure on living costs and supported private consumption. However, goods exports as well as manufacturing production and investment contracted due to weak external demand. Public debt remained stable;a decrease in budget deficit financing was offset by increased borrowing to support the State Oil Fund. In June, the Thai baht depreciated compared to major ASEAN currencies, primarily due to an all-year high current account deficit.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, 30 July 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-31)Recent indicators of economic activity point to a gradual recovery, supported by improvement in manufacturing production, goods exports, and tourism. The number of tourist arrivals expanded, nearing pre-pandemic levels. 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Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in 2024, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year driven by increased budget execution and goods exports. Despite low government investment disbursement, the THB 10,000 cash handouts for low-income households may stimulate growth. However, flooding poses downside risks to growth and may add to price pressure. Inflation edged up due to fresh food and core inflation. The Thai baht appreciated due to expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and a current account surplus. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, February 2014(Bangkok, 2014-02-11)The Thai economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis compared to countries like Malaysia and China. Growth in 2013 is projected to be 3 percent with slower than expected performance in all components of gross domestic product (GDP) - consumption, investment, next exports, and government spending. Growth is projected to be 4.0 percent in 2014 as the global economy recovers. Exports should accelerate and may well be helped by the tapering of the United States (U.S.) quantitative easing (QE) as the baht depreciates. Taking a longer perspective, there remains visible inequality in public service delivery and human achievement outcomes. Addressing the regional disparities is important for Thailand not only from a social equity perspective, but also from a competitiveness and economic growth perspective. As the population ages, Thailand is seeking to move to a high income economy. Such a transition will require a much broader base of healthy and high skilled citizens. 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The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.
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