Publication: Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, 17 January 2024
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2024-01-22
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2024-01-22
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The economy sustained its gradual recovery, buoyed by strong private consumption and improving goods exports but hampered by contracting manufacturing production. The economy is projected to grow 2.5 percent in 2023 and accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2024. Inflation remained negative for the third consecutive month and stayed well below peers, primarily due to falling energy and food prices as well as energy subsidies. The marginal increase in the minimum wage for 2024 is unlikely to exert significant pressure on inflation. The planned fiscal stimulus measures are expected to provide a short-term boost to growth but will delay fiscal consolidation. In December, the Thai baht appreciated against major trading partners, although net foreign portfolio outflows were the largest in three months.
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“World Bank. 2024. Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, 17 January 2024. Thailand Economic Monitor . © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40942 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC, 2023-03-21)The economy resumed moderate expansion as private consumption and tourism improved at the beginning of 2023, after a disappointing Q4 outturn. However, lingering soft global demand continued to weigh on goods exports, manufacturing, and private investment. Inflation slowed amid easing global energy prices but remained above the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1-3 percent. As a result, authorities extended energy-related subsidies while maintaining monetary policy normalization. The Thai baht depreciated the most among major ASEAN currencies in February as the current account turned deficit due to slowing export of goods while substantial portfolio flows exited the equity and bond markets.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC, 2023-11-13)The economy continued its moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and improving goods exports. However, the tourism recovery decelerated. Inflation remained significantly below peers; raw food prices fell and energy subsidies contained pressure on living costs. The planned fiscal stimulus measures will provide a short-term boost to growth but delay ongoing fiscal consolidation. The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly raised its policy rate to 2.50 percent. In September, the Thai baht depreciated against major trading partners.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03-14)Growth decelerated more than expected to 1.4 percent in Q4 2022 amid the global economic slowdown. Goods trade contracted while manufacturing production and investment weakened. However, robust private consumption and tourism recovery continued to strengthen the outlook. Headline inflation declined but the second-round impact on domestic prices remained. This prompted the Bank of Thailand to continue monetary policy normalization and the government to extend energy-related subsidies. The current account balance returned to surplus in Q4 2022 on the back of substantially improved tourism receipts, supporting the Thai baht.Publication Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor(Washington, DC, 2022-08-23)The economic recovery continued to pick up in Q2 2022, expanding by 2.5 percent (yoy), due to a stronger-than-expected boost in private consumption and tourism, which offset weak goods exports. However, among the major ASEAN economies, Thailand’s recovery has proven to be the slowest and inflation the highest. To tame cost-push inflation, the Bank of Thailand recently began raising rates; however, monetary policy normalization is expected to be gradual as the recovery is not yet complete. The fiscal deficit remained large as the government continued to introduce measures to counter the impact of the rising cost of living and the pandemic. The rising cost of energy subsidies administered by the State Oil Fund may potentially add to public debt levels. The Thai baht strengthened due to expectations of a swifter economic recovery and the decline of the US dollar.Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, April 2011(World Bank, Bangkok, 2011-04)The pace of economic activity is gradually returning to pre-crisis levels. After a roller-coaster of sharp drops, vigorous rebounds and mild contractions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 4.8 percent in the last quarter of 2010 on a seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) basis, closer to pre-crisis, normal levels. For 2010 as a whole, GDP expanded by 7.8 percent from 2009. Growth was broad-based, with significant contributions from external and domestic demands. Thailand's economy is one of the most energy intensive in the region because of the large (and growing) share of energy-intensive manufacturing in the economy and high proportion of cargo transported by trucks. Thailand can reduce its vulnerability to oil price shocks by raising fuel standards, improving tax incentives for conservation and relying more on rail for cargo transport.
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