Publication: Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
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Date
2024-06-11
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1014-8906
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2024-06-11
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After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
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“World Bank. 2024. Global Economic Prospects, June 2024. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41536 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. 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These conditions can broadly be categorized as (a) stable, progressive and predictable laws and institutions; (b) efficient labor and financial markets; (c) macroeconomic and financial stability; (d) social and environmental sustainability; (e) effective integration into the European infrastructure networks ensuring competitive cost and quality; and (f) a dynamic business-oriented environment which facilitates the production of high value added goods and promotes the adoption of efficient processes and innovative technologies. This Report proposes a reform strategy for faster economic growth through European integration. Other key inputs for creating a favorable investment climate and consolidating growth prospects include skilled labor, efficient financial markets, and high-quality cost-efficient infrastructure services. Croatia has already achieved substantial progress in these areas. 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Similarly, market-oriented energy, transport, and communications are crucial to enhance the global competitiveness of the Croatian economy and to foster its integration into the European economy while creating opportunities for FDI.
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Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. 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