Publication: Fragility and Conflict: On the Front Lines of the Fight against Poverty
Loading...
Files in English
21,694 downloads
610 downloads
1,810 downloads
Date
2020-02-27
ISSN
Published
2020-02-27
Editor(s)
Abstract
Fragility and conflict pose a critical threat to the global goal of ending extreme poverty. Between 1990 and 2015, successful development strategies reduced the proportion of the world’s people living in extreme poverty from 36 to 10 percent. But in many fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), poverty is stagnating or getting worse. The number of people living in proximity to conflict has nearly doubled worldwide since 2007. In the Middle East and North Africa, one in five people now lives in such conditions. The number of forcibly displaced persons worldwide has also more than doubled in the same period, exceeding 70 million in 2017. If current trends continue, by the end of 2020, the number of extremely poor people living in economies affected by fragility and conflict will exceed the number of poor people in all other settings combined. This book shows why addressing fragility and conflict is vital for poverty goals and charts directions for action. It presents new estimates of welfare in FCS, filling gaps in previous knowledge, and analyzes the multidimensional nature of poverty in these settings. It shows that data deprivation in FCS has prevented an accurate global picture of fragility, poverty, and their interactions, and it explains how innovative new measurement strategies are tackling these challenges. The book discusses the long-term consequences of conflict and introduces a data-driven classification of countries by fragility profile, showing opportunities for tailored policy interventions and the need for monitoring multiple markers of fragility. The book strengthens understanding of what poverty reduction in FCS will require and what it can achieve.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Corral, Paul; Irwin, Alexander; Krishnan, Nandini; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Vishwanath, Tara. 2020. Fragility and Conflict: On the Front Lines of the Fight against Poverty. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33324 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity in Contexts Affected by Fragility, Conflict, and Violence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03)In recent years, the world has seen a sharp rise in violence based on sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) in countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV). Today, consensual same-sex sexual acts and other aspects of SOGI remain criminalized in many of the countries experiencing the most pressing humanitarian crises, and those with the largest numbers of refugees and internally displaced people. In light of this, this discussion paper analyzes some of the development and protection challenges that sexual and gender minorities cope with in FCV-affected environments. The paper devotes special attention to the intersections between SOGI-based exclusion and access to basic services; to the challenges experienced by sexual and gender minorities in conditions of forced displacement; and to sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) as a frequently used weapon against these vulnerable groups. This paper contributes to the evidence base related to the most vulnerable in FCV-affected environments, and knowledge on SOGI-based exclusion vis-à-vis the development-humanitarian-peace nexus.Publication Pioneering Firms in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03)The role of 'first movers' in fragile states is critical: they grow and diversify markets in ways that no other firms do, generating disproportionate impact in terms of development and stability. But pioneer firms are rare in fragile states. This study documents their profile, their challenges, and the barriers that prevent them from realizing their potential. The study also explores the rationale for development finance institutions to support them, and proposes new ways to offset costs, risks, and the "unknown unknowns" that generate radical uncertainty. Through a process of social learning and resetting negative self-fulfilling investor narratives, development finance institutions can help pioneering firms shift the growth trajectory of fragile and conflict-affected states.Publication The International Finance Corporation’s Engagement in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08-26)Fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) pose a major challenge for development and for reaching the Bank Group’s twin goals. Enabling appropriate private sector activities can be a means to break free of the fragility trap by supporting economic growth, promoting local employment and income earning opportunities, generating government revenues, and delivering goods and services. However, the private sector faces substantial constraints in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). This report takes stock of available evidence regarding the effectiveness of IFC’s support in FCS. It aims to inform IFC’s strategy in FCS as IFC seeks to scale up its activities in FCS as part of its commitments under the Capital Increase Package, and to provide inputs for the Bank Group’s Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) strategy currently being developed.Publication The Lives and Livelihoods of Syrian Refugees in the Middle East(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)The Syrian crisis has led to rapid and large-scale population displacement. This paper has two main aims. (i) It documents the size and timing of the Syrian refugee influx into Jordan, Lebanon, and Kurdistan, characterizing the forced nature of displacement and exploring factors that influenced the decision to flee and subsequently move within the host country. (ii) The paper describes the daily living conditions of refugees after displacement, documenting vulnerability along several dimensions, such as housing access and quality, labor market attachment, and financial security. The data sources include the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' registration database and multi-country, multi-topic surveys conducted in 2015-16.Publication Evolution of Poor Food Access over the Course of the Conflict in the Republic of Yemen(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04)The Republic of Yemen has undergone a profound transformation following the escalation of conflict in March 2015. There has been an increase in violence, a disruption in supply chains due to a tightening of the ports, and a decline in the general economic climate that has left a large share of the population without the income to support their basic needs. These transformations have resulted in widespread food insecurity, where nearly half the population is under the threat of a potential famine. Although the violence has undeniably had a significant impact on the population and local outcomes, the temporal and regional distribution of poor food access suggest that food insecurity of the mobile phone–using population has been primarily driven by factors aside from the localized effects of violence alone. The lack of a strong relationship between violence and poor welfare outcomes contrasts with evidence from other conflict settings, and further contrasts with the rationale underpinning much of the humanitarian and development assistance currently being delivered in the country.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-05-27)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and how they could accelerate the delivery of long-term mitigation goals. Specifically, this includes the use of carbon taxes, emissions trading systems and crediting mechanisms. International cooperation on carbon pricing and the status of work surrounding Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is also canvassed.Publication Women, Business and the Law 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-04)Women, Business and the Law 2024 is the 10th in a series of annual studies measuring the enabling conditions that affect women’s economic opportunity in 190 economies. To present a more complete picture of the global environment that enables women’s socioeconomic participation, this year Women, Business and the Law introduces two new indicators—Safety and Childcare—and presents findings on the implementation gap between laws (de jure) and how they function in practice (de facto). This study presents three indexes: (1) legal frameworks, (2) supportive frameworks (policies, institutions, services, data, budget, and access to justice), and (3) expert opinions on women’s rights in practice in the areas measured. The study’s 10 indicators—Safety, Mobility, Workplace, Pay, Marriage, Parenthood, Childcare, Entrepreneurship, Assets, and Pension—are structured around the different stages of a woman’s working life. Findings from this new research can inform policy discussions to ensure women’s full and equal participation in the economy. The indicators build evidence of the critical relationship between legal gender equality and women’s employment and entrepreneurship. Data in Women, Business and the Law 2024 are current as of October 1, 2023.Publication Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects(World Bank : Washington, DC, 2024-02-01)A structural growth slowdown is underway across the world: at current trends, the global potential growth rate is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened, not only because of a series of shocks to the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. These challenges call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-25)The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and increasing metals-intensive investments in the energy transition. Commodity prices are forecast to soften marginally in 2024 and 2025 but remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels. Unlike most other prices, crude oil prices are expected to increase in 2024, mainly reflecting geopolitical tensions. The key risk to commodity price projections relates to the possibility of a broadening of the Middle East conflict, which could lead to significantly higher oil prices, thus reigniting global inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, food insecurity worsened markedly last year, reflecting elevated food prices and armed conflicts around the world. Should such conflicts worsen, global hunger could rise substantially. Heightened uncertainty around the commodity price outlook underscores the importance of forecast accuracy. A Special Focus section evaluates the performance of five approaches used to forecast prices of three commodities—aluminum, copper, and oil. It concludes that there is no “one-approach-beats-all.” Macroeconometric models tend to be more accurate at longer horizons, mainly due to their ability to account for the impact of structural changes. It is, however, critical to incorporate judgment and information that cannot be accounted for by statistical approaches. This highlights the importance of employing a wide range of approaches when forecasting commodity prices.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11)After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.