Publication:
Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies

Abstract
A structural growth slowdown is underway across the world: at current trends, the global potential growth rate is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened, not only because of a series of shocks to the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. These challenges call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska, editors. 2024. Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39497 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Latin America and the Caribbean's Long-Term Growth
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09) World Bank
    This semiannual report examines short-run and long-run challenges for economic growth for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The first part of this report provides an overview of recent economic developments, including an analysis of the sources of external risks for short-term economic activity in the region, and an in-depth look at whether LAC can leverage its deepening connections with China and turn it into an important (but not the only one) source of long-term growth. It also discusses policy response options for the short and long-term horizons. The second part of the report documents and analyzes the emergence, over the last decade, of a downward trend in education earnings premia (the additional earnings associated with a higher level of education), which is believed to reflect a re-balancing between higher supply and lower demand for skills.
  • Publication
    On the Long-Term Holistic Development Framework Principle of the CDF : An Evaluation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01) Gadir Ali, Ali Abdel; Disch, Arne
    The Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) is an initiative by the World Bank's President James D. Wolfensohn (1999), to enhance the effectiveness of the partners of development of the developing countries in bringing about desired development outcomes. According to the CDF Secretariat (2000) the CDF is 'an approach by which countries can achieve more effective poverty reduction. It emphasizes the interdependence of all elements of development, social, structural, human, governance, environmental, economic and financial.' The framework is articulated around four major principles: long-term, holistic development framework; country ownership of development programs and policies; country-led partnership among various stakeholders; and, results orientation. The remainder of this paper is organized in five sections. Section two offers an analytical framework suitable for the formulation of a holistic, long-term poverty reduction strategy. The framework is used as a benchmark against which the implementation of the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework (LTHDF) is evaluated. Section three provides a cursory and highly selective reading of the implementation of the CDF long-term holistic development framework in the six pilot countries. In this section it is assumed that the poverty reduction strategy papers provide the embodiment of the CDF principle irrespective of whether countries state this explicitly or not. Section four provides an evaluation of the implementation of the CDF principle while section five provides an evaluation of the response of donors to the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework. This section is based on a survey instrument that has been designed to elicit these responses. Section six offers a few concluding remarks and proposes a number of hypotheses that can be tested in future evaluation of the CDF.
  • Publication
    Using Lebanon's Large Capital Inflows to Foster Sustainable Long-Term Growth
    (World Bank, 2012-01-01) World Bank
    This report aims to provide a diagnostic of the Lebanese economy and policy advice to a broad audience. To that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of foreign inflows and of the economy over the past decades is undertaken. Specifically, this report attempts to provide a vision for where would Lebanon be in 15 to 20 years if needed structural reforms are implemented. This report provides a quantification of the growth impact of these reforms, taken individually or combined. By doing so, it gives both an indication on the opportunity costs of not reforming and provides a vision on what the development stage could be in Lebanon in 15 to 20 years if reforms are implemented. The report includes a set of econometric simulations and analysis aiming: 1) to establish the relation between the dynamic of foreign financial inflows and deposits over a period of 20 years, 2) to establish the relation between deposits as proxy for foreign financial inflows from one side; and oil price as proxy for regional wealth, macroeconomic and security stability, and policy variables from the other side and, 3) to estimate the relation between economic fluctuations from one side; and bank lending as one of the channels of transmission of foreign financial inflows, and debtor interest rate from the other side.
  • Publication
    Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Dennis, Allen; Baffes, John
    It is becoming increasingly apparent that the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity price increases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar to the ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) and the 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character. From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy, fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices went up by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled. Such price increases, especially in food commodities, not only fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmed government officials, leading to calls for coordinated policy actions. This paper examines the relative contribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers to price changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-form econometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The drivers include stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturing prices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interest rate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates (approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios, 0.25 for the oil price, -1.25 for the exchange rate, and much less for others), the paper estimates the contribution of these drivers to food price increases from 1997-2004 to 2005-12. It concludes that most of the price increases are accounted for by crude oil prices (more than 50 percent), followed by stock-to-use ratios and exchange rate movements, which are estimated at about 15 percent each. Crude oil prices mattered most during the recent boom period because they experienced the largest increase.
  • Publication
    Long-Term Growth Prospects in Peru
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-09) Barco, Daniel; Celiku, Bledi; Chávez, Paulo; Mendes, Arthur; Pennings, Steven; Resk, Elena
    This paper uses the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model and extensions to study Peru’s long-term growth prospects and its potential to attain high-income economy status. Under a business-as-usual baseline, Peru’s potential GDP growth declines slowly from 2.1 to 1.7 percent over the next two decades, due mostly to demographic factors. In this baseline, it takes more than half a century to reach high income status. To accelerate growth, the paper considers moderate and ambitious reform scenarios for the non-resource sector through faster total factor productivity (TFP) growth, human capital growth, and higher investment rates. The ambitious reform path accelerates growth to an average of 4.3 percent in the simulation period (2024–50), allowing Peru to reach high-income status by 2045. The paper also considers a Global Green Transition scenario, where Peru takes advantage of higher global demand for copper from clean technologies. In that scenario, higher copper prices, greater exploration, improved mining technology, and reinvested copper windfalls increase baseline growth to 3.1 percent by 2035. If Peru were able to harness the global green transition and implement ambitious reforms in the non-resource sector, growth could accelerate to an average of 5 percent, and the country could reach high-income status by 2042.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Women, Business and the Law 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-02) World Bank
    “Women, Business and the Law 2023” is the ninth in a series of annual studies measuring the laws and regulations that affect women’s economic opportunity in 190 economies. The project presents eight indicators structured around women’s interactions with the law as they move through their lives and careers: Mobility, Workplace, Pay, Marriage, Parenthood, Entrepreneurship, Assets, and Pension. The 2023 edition identifies barriers to women’s economic participation and encourages reform of discriminatory laws. This year, the study also includes research, a literature review, and analysis of 53 years of reforms for women’s rights. Examining the economic decisions that women make throughout their working lives as well as tracking regulatory changes from 1970 to today, the study makes an important contribution to research and policy discussions about the state of women’s economic opportunities. By presenting powerful examples of change and highlighting the gaps still remaining, “Women, Business and the Law 2023” is a vital tool in ensuring economic empowerment for all. Data in “Women, Business and the Law 2023” are current as of October 1, 2022.
  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-25) World Bank
    The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and increasing metals-intensive investments in the energy transition. Commodity prices are forecast to soften marginally in 2024 and 2025 but remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels. Unlike most other prices, crude oil prices are expected to increase in 2024, mainly reflecting geopolitical tensions. The key risk to commodity price projections relates to the possibility of a broadening of the Middle East conflict, which could lead to significantly higher oil prices, thus reigniting global inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, food insecurity worsened markedly last year, reflecting elevated food prices and armed conflicts around the world. Should such conflicts worsen, global hunger could rise substantially. Heightened uncertainty around the commodity price outlook underscores the importance of forecast accuracy. A Special Focus section evaluates the performance of five approaches used to forecast prices of three commodities—aluminum, copper, and oil. It concludes that there is no “one-approach-beats-all.” Macroeconometric models tend to be more accurate at longer horizons, mainly due to their ability to account for the impact of structural changes. It is, however, critical to incorporate judgment and information that cannot be accounted for by statistical approaches. This highlights the importance of employing a wide range of approaches when forecasting commodity prices.
  • Publication
    State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21) World Bank
    This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.
  • Publication
    Bangladesh Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank Group
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. This CCDR identifies near-term policy and investment priorities that will support Bangladesh to continue progress in building resilience to the effects of climate change. Section 1 describes Bangladesh’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change and outlines estimates of the cost of mitigation and adaptation investments through 2030. Section 2 lays out the Government of Bangladesh’s existing climate commitments and plans, and evaluates the institutional capacities required to meet them. Section 3 highlights priority sector-level interventions to build climate resilience while meeting development goals. Section 4 presents potential synergies between decarbonization and development. Section 5 discusses the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of climate scenarios and identifies priority actions to support adaptation and growth. The CCDR provides additional analysis to prioritize actions to accelerate climate-resilient development in line with Bangladesh’s goals.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11) World Bank
    After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.