Publication: Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies
Loading...
Files
25,657 downloads
2,578 downloads
1,296 downloads
1,093 downloads
887 downloads
Date
2024-02-01
ISSN
Published
2024-02-01
Author(s)
Unknown author
Editor(s)
Abstract
A structural growth slowdown is underway across the world: at current trends, the global potential growth rate is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened, not only because of a series of shocks to the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. These challenges call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska, editors. 2024. Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39497 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Latin America and the Caribbean's Long-Term Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09)This semiannual report examines short-run and long-run challenges for economic growth for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The first part of this report provides an overview of recent economic developments, including an analysis of the sources of external risks for short-term economic activity in the region, and an in-depth look at whether LAC can leverage its deepening connections with China and turn it into an important (but not the only one) source of long-term growth. It also discusses policy response options for the short and long-term horizons. The second part of the report documents and analyzes the emergence, over the last decade, of a downward trend in education earnings premia (the additional earnings associated with a higher level of education), which is believed to reflect a re-balancing between higher supply and lower demand for skills.Publication On the Long-Term Holistic Development Framework Principle of the CDF : An Evaluation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)The Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) is an initiative by the World Bank's President James D. Wolfensohn (1999), to enhance the effectiveness of the partners of development of the developing countries in bringing about desired development outcomes. According to the CDF Secretariat (2000) the CDF is 'an approach by which countries can achieve more effective poverty reduction. It emphasizes the interdependence of all elements of development, social, structural, human, governance, environmental, economic and financial.' The framework is articulated around four major principles: long-term, holistic development framework; country ownership of development programs and policies; country-led partnership among various stakeholders; and, results orientation. The remainder of this paper is organized in five sections. Section two offers an analytical framework suitable for the formulation of a holistic, long-term poverty reduction strategy. The framework is used as a benchmark against which the implementation of the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework (LTHDF) is evaluated. Section three provides a cursory and highly selective reading of the implementation of the CDF long-term holistic development framework in the six pilot countries. In this section it is assumed that the poverty reduction strategy papers provide the embodiment of the CDF principle irrespective of whether countries state this explicitly or not. Section four provides an evaluation of the implementation of the CDF principle while section five provides an evaluation of the response of donors to the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework. This section is based on a survey instrument that has been designed to elicit these responses. Section six offers a few concluding remarks and proposes a number of hypotheses that can be tested in future evaluation of the CDF.Publication Using Lebanon's Large Capital Inflows to Foster Sustainable Long-Term Growth(World Bank, 2012-01-01)This report aims to provide a diagnostic of the Lebanese economy and policy advice to a broad audience. To that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of foreign inflows and of the economy over the past decades is undertaken. Specifically, this report attempts to provide a vision for where would Lebanon be in 15 to 20 years if needed structural reforms are implemented. This report provides a quantification of the growth impact of these reforms, taken individually or combined. By doing so, it gives both an indication on the opportunity costs of not reforming and provides a vision on what the development stage could be in Lebanon in 15 to 20 years if reforms are implemented. The report includes a set of econometric simulations and analysis aiming: 1) to establish the relation between the dynamic of foreign financial inflows and deposits over a period of 20 years, 2) to establish the relation between deposits as proxy for foreign financial inflows from one side; and oil price as proxy for regional wealth, macroeconomic and security stability, and policy variables from the other side and, 3) to estimate the relation between economic fluctuations from one side; and bank lending as one of the channels of transmission of foreign financial inflows, and debtor interest rate from the other side.Publication Long-Term Growth Prospects in Peru(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-09)This paper uses the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model and extensions to study Peru’s long-term growth prospects and its potential to attain high-income economy status. Under a business-as-usual baseline, Peru’s potential GDP growth declines slowly from 2.1 to 1.7 percent over the next two decades, due mostly to demographic factors. In this baseline, it takes more than half a century to reach high income status. To accelerate growth, the paper considers moderate and ambitious reform scenarios for the non-resource sector through faster total factor productivity (TFP) growth, human capital growth, and higher investment rates. The ambitious reform path accelerates growth to an average of 4.3 percent in the simulation period (2024–50), allowing Peru to reach high-income status by 2045. The paper also considers a Global Green Transition scenario, where Peru takes advantage of higher global demand for copper from clean technologies. In that scenario, higher copper prices, greater exploration, improved mining technology, and reinvested copper windfalls increase baseline growth to 3.1 percent by 2035. If Peru were able to harness the global green transition and implement ambitious reforms in the non-resource sector, growth could accelerate to an average of 5 percent, and the country could reach high-income status by 2042.Publication Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05)It is becoming increasingly apparent that the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity price increases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar to the ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) and the 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character. From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy, fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices went up by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled. Such price increases, especially in food commodities, not only fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmed government officials, leading to calls for coordinated policy actions. This paper examines the relative contribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers to price changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-form econometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The drivers include stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturing prices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interest rate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates (approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios, 0.25 for the oil price, -1.25 for the exchange rate, and much less for others), the paper estimates the contribution of these drivers to food price increases from 1997-2004 to 2005-12. It concludes that most of the price increases are accounted for by crude oil prices (more than 50 percent), followed by stock-to-use ratios and exchange rate movements, which are estimated at about 15 percent each. Crude oil prices mattered most during the recent boom period because they experienced the largest increase.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06)Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.Publication World Development Report 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018)Every year, the World Bank's World Development Report takes on a topic of central importance to global development. The 2018 Report, Learning to Realize Education's Promise, is the first ever devoted entirely to education. Now is an excellent time for it: education has long been critical for human welfare, but is even more so in a time of rapid economic change. The Report explores four main themes. First, education's promise: Education is a powerful instrument for eradicating poverty and promoting shared prosperity, but fulfilling its potential requires better policies - both within and outside the education system. Second, the learning crisis: Despite gains in education access, recent learning assessments show that many young people around the world, especially from poor families, are leaving school unequipped with even the most foundational skills they need for life. At the same time, internationally comparable learning assessments show that skills in many middle-income countries lag far behind what those countries aspire to. Third, promising interventions to improve learning: Research from areas such as brain science, pedagogical innovations, or school management have identified interventions that promote learning by ensuring that learners are prepared, that teachers are skilled as well as motivated, and that other inputs support the teacher-learner relationship. Fourth, learning at scale: Achieving learning throughout an education system will require more than just scaling up effective interventions. Change requires overcoming technical and political barriers by deploying salient metrics for mobilizing actors and tracking progress, building coalitions for learning, and being adaptive when implementing programs.Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-05-27)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and how they could accelerate the delivery of long-term mitigation goals. Specifically, this includes the use of carbon taxes, emissions trading systems and crediting mechanisms. International cooperation on carbon pricing and the status of work surrounding Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is also canvassed.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11)After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.