Publication: Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
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2023-06-06
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2023-06-06
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Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.
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“World Bank. 2023. Global Economic Prospects, June 2023. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39846 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2011(2011-06)The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth. Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. Several annexes address regional and sartorial issues in much greater detail.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-06)The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2010(Washington, DC, 2010-06)Market nervousness concerning the fiscal positions of several European high-income countries poses a new challenge for the world economy. This arises as the recovery is transitioning toward a more mature phase during which the influence of rebound factors (such as fiscal stimulus) fades, and gross domestic product (GDP) gains will increasingly depend on private investment and consumption. So far evolving financial developments in Europe have had limited effects on financial conditions in developing countries. Although global equity markets dropped between 8 and 17 percent, there has been little fallout on most developing-country risk premia. And despite a sharp deceleration in bond flows in May, year-to-date capital flows to developing countries during the first 5 months of 2010 are up 90 percent from the same period in 2009. The economic impact on long-term growth in developing countries of a forced pullback from growth-enhancing infrastructure and human-capital investment due to lower fiscal revenues, weaker official development assistance (ODA), and sluggish capital flows, are difficult to gauge, as are the effects on private sector growth of tighter financial sector regulations, and increased competition for capital from high-income sovereigns. Global economic prospects: crisis, finance and growth estimated that just the latter two factors could reduce developing country growth rates by between 0.2 and 0.7 percent for a period of 5 to 7 years.Publication Global Economic Prospects : Financial Markets Outlook, June 2014(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-06)External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed, bringing down average borrowing costs to their lowest level since the spring of 2013. Stock markets have also recovered rapidly from a significant sell-off in January/February, despite rising geopolitical tensions and evidence of disappointing activity in the first quarter of the year. As presented in the June 2014 edition of Global Economic Prospects, a more favorable global environment is reflected in upward revisions to capital inflow forecasts for developing countries, now projected to remain broad-ly stable as a percentage of GDP in 2014 and 2015, at around 5.6 percent, before declining again in 2016, to 5.1 percent. While baseline forecasts assume an orderly in-crease in long-term interest rates in high-income countries, the risk of more abrupt adjustments from current low levels has recently increased. Escalating geopolitical tensions or financial stress in some developing countries could also potentially trigger a sudden re-pricing of risk. Despite the recent narrowing of current account deficits in some developing countries, many remain vulnerable to a sharp increase in borrowing costs and/or significant currency depreciations, which could put additional strain on corporate and bank balance sheets.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2010(World Bank, 2010)The world economy is emerging from the throes of a historically deep and synchronized recession provoked by the bursting of a global financial bubble. The consequences of the initial bubble and the crisis have been felt in virtually every economy, whether or not it participated directly in the risky behaviors that precipitated the boom-and-bust cycle. And while growth rates have picked up, the depth of the recession means that it will take years before unemployment and spare capacity are reabsorbed. This year's global economic prospects examines the consequences of the crisis for both the short and medium term growth prospects of developing countries. It concludes that the crisis and the regulatory reaction to the financial excesses of the preceding several years may have lasting impacts on financial markets, raising borrowing costs and lowering levels of credit and international capital flows. As a result, the rate of growth of potential output in developing countries may be reduced by between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points annually over the next five to seven years as economies adjust to tighter financial conditions. Overall, the level of potential output in developing countries could be reduced by between 3.4 and 8 percent over the long run, compared with its pre-crisis path. The report further finds that the very liquid conditions of the first half of the decade contributed to the expansion in credit available in developing countries and that this expansion was responsible for about 40 percent of the approximately 1.5 percentage point acceleration of the pace at which many developing-country economies could grow without generating significant inflation. While developing countries probably cannot reverse the expected tightening in international financial conditions, there is considerable scope for reducing domestic borrowing costs, or increasing productivity and thereby regaining the higher growth path that the crisis has derailed.
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