Publication:
High-Speed Rail, Regional Economics, and Urban Development in China

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (682.32 KB)
862 downloads
English Text (35.75 KB)
37 downloads
Date
2013-01
ISSN
Published
2013-01
Author(s)
Salzberg, Andrew
Ying, Jin
Fang, Wanli
Editor(s)
Abstract
Traditional economic evaluations of major transport infrastructure investments focus on the direct costs and benefits arising from travel, including user time savings, operator cost savings, and reductions in externalities including air pollution, noise, and accidents. There is an emerging consensus that major transport investments may have significant impacts that are not well captured by this type of conventional cost-benefit analysis. In China, the World Bank transport team has supported both econometric studies and on-the-ground surveys that begin to identify and quantify these impacts in the context of China's emerging High Speed Rail (HSR) program. Based on this and other research, the Bank team has begun to pilot a methodology to evaluate wider economic development benefits for several HSR projects, and has found them to be significant - of the same order as, but additional to the direct transport benefits that are traditionally measured. Crucially, these benefits of larger and better connected markets accrue to businesses and individuals even when they themselves do not travel. This paper highlights this research and methodology and the policy implications related to maximizing these benefits in practice.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Salzberg, Andrew; Bullock, Richard; Ying, Jin; Fang, Wanli. 2013. High-Speed Rail, Regional Economics, and Urban Development in China. China Transport Topics;No. 8. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25484 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    High-Speed Rail
    (World Bank, Beijing, 2010-07) Amos, Paul; Bullock, Dick; Sondhi, Jitendra
    A high-speed rail service can deliver competitive advantage over airlines for journeys of up to about 3 hours or 750 km, particularly between city pairs where airports are located far from city centres. One suitable type of corridor is that which connects two large cities 250-500 km apart. But another promising situation is a longer corridor that has very large urban centres located, say, every 150-300 km apart. On these longer corridors, typical of some being built in China, high-speed rail has the ability to serve multiple city-pairs, both direct and overlapping. The overall financial performance of high-speed train services depends on enough people being able to pay a premium to use them. In Japan there is a surcharge for high-speed rail which doubles the fare on conventional services. China high-speed train fares are about three times conventional train fares. But in order to generate the required volume of passengers it will usually be necessary not only to target the most affluent travelers but also to adopt a fare structure that is affordable for the middle income population and, if any spare capacity still exists, to offer discount tickets with restrictions on use and availability that can fill otherwise unused seats. The combination of supportive features that exist on the eastern plains of China including very high population density, rapidly growing disposable incomes, and the prevalence of many large cities in reasonable proximity to one another (creating not just one city-pair but a string of such pairs) are not found in most developing countries. Nor could all countries assemble the focused collective capacity building effort and the economies of scale in construction costs that arise when a government can commit the country, politically and economically, to a decades-long program over a vast land area. Even in China, the sustainability of railway debt arising from the program as it proceeds will need to be closely monitored and payback periods will not be short, as they cannot be for such "lumpy" and long-lived assets. But a combination of those factors that create favorable conditions of both demand and supply comes together in China in a way that is distinctly favorable to delivering a successful high-speed rail system.
  • Publication
    Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Spatial Proximity and Productivity in an Emerging Economy
    (World Bank, Beijing, 2013-06-30) Jin, Ying; Bullock, Richard; Fang, Wanli
    This paper contains an initial reconnaissance of the situation in Yunfu, prior to the NanGuang project construction. It provides a brief overview of the trajectory of economic development in Yunfu from an economy that was dominated by primary industries to that by secondary industries. The development of local transport infrastructure is reviewed, as is the more detailed structure of local industries, with special emphasis on dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. The experience of high speed rail development impact elsewhere was drawn upon to reflect on the possible regional economic outcomes that might emerge following the opening of the Nanning-Guangzhou high speed rail. The structure of and the approach to a before and after monitoring study is considered. The remainder of the paper is divided into six parts. Part two gives a brief overview of the economic development in Yunfu municipality since its establishment in 1994. Part three describes local transport links and infrastructure. Part four provides a description of the internal structure of local industries, with special emphasis on the dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. Part five discusses possible regional economic impacts associated with the forthcoming high-speed rail line and part six summarizes a proposal for the next steps.
  • Publication
    Regional Economic Impact Analysis of High Speed Rail in China : Main Report
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06-25) World Bank
    This report reflects a two-stage work flow designed to fulfill the research objectives: stage one defined the methodology, and stages two tested this methodology and transferred the know-how to the China Railway Corporation and its consultants through case studies. Chapter two summarizes the theoretical framework within which regional economic impacts are discussed and quantified. Chapter three reviews current regional economic impact analyses in China. Chapter four summarizes the approach to practical regional impact assessment in other countries and reviews the relevance of the main methods in the Chinese context. Chapter five summarizes the work that has been carried out by the World Bank to date in estimating regional impacts in China. Chapter six develops a practical approach to quantifying the regional economic impacts of future HSR in China, including methods for data collection, surveys and interviews. Chapter seven presents the implementation of the methodology in the case studies and the interpretation of quantified model results. Chapter eight summarizes the conclusions and the recommendations for further work. In addition, appendices one to three provide further details about existing assessment studies and methodologies. Appendices four and five show the interview and survey forms. A separate report provides a step-by-step how-to guide for a regional economic impact assessment using a four zone generic example model, which as a simple numerical example complements the presentation of the case study applications on Changchun-Jilin HSR and the northern part of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.
  • Publication
    Regional Economic Impact Analysis of High Speed Rail in China : Step by Step Guide
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06-25) World Bank
    This report reflects a two-stage work flow designed to fulfill the research objectives: stage one defined the methodology, and stages two tested this methodology and transferred the know-how to the China Railway Corporation and its consultants through case studies. Chapter two summarizes the theoretical framework within which regional economic impacts are discussed and quantified. Chapter three reviews current regional economic impact analyses in China. Chapter four summarizes the approach to practical regional impact assessment in other countries and reviews the relevance of the main methods in the Chinese context. Chapter five summarizes the work that has been carried out by the World Bank to date in estimating regional impacts in China. Chapter six develops a practical approach to quantifying the regional economic impacts of future HSR in China, including methods for data collection, surveys and interviews. Chapter seven presents the implementation of the methodology in the case studies and the interpretation of quantified model results. Chapter eight summarizes the conclusions and the recommendations for further work. In addition, appendices one to three provide further details about existing assessment studies and methodologies. Appendices four and five show the interview and survey forms. A separate report provides a step-by-step how-to guide for a regional economic impact assessment using a four zone generic example model, which as a simple numerical example complements the presentation of the case study applications on Changchun-Jilin HSR and the northern part of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.
  • Publication
    Turkey - Transport Sector Expenditure Review : Synthesis Report
    (Washington, DC, 2012-10) World Bank
    Turkey is an upper-middle income country with a population of 73 million. It has a diversified economy with a strategic geographical position, located on the southeastern side of Europe and southwestern side of Asia. Continued economic growth, combined with increases in the urban population, will place increasing demands on Turkey's transport infrastructure. High middle income countries such as Turkey typically see very rapid increases in demand for transport services for several decades. Consequently public expenditures on transport sector have increased substantially in Turkey in recent years. Public expenditures on transport have almost doubled from 1.06 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2004 to 1.92 percent in 2010, and the transport sector accounted for the bulk of the increase in total public investments over this period. Turkey's transport sector has been growing both in terms of its size and the quality of the network, and currently compares well with similar middle income countries. However, Turkey's infrastructure quality lags behind the levels of EU countries, particularly in the railroads and ports sector. The need for transport infrastructure improvements is also reinforced by the results of business surveys.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12) Malpass, David
    World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.
  • Publication
    The Journey Ahead
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31) Bossavie, Laurent; Garrote Sánchez, Daniel; Makovec, Mattia
    The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.
  • Publication
    Economic Recovery
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06) Malpass, David; Georgieva, Kristalina; Yellen, Janet
    World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.
  • Publication
    South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02) World Bank
    South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.
  • Publication
    Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) Calleja, Ramon V., Jr.; Mbuya, Nkosinathi V.N.; Morimoto, Tomo; Thitsy, Sophavanh
    The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.