Publication: Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2024-2025: Funding the Future - Boosting Revenues for Lasting Investments
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2025-02-11
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2025-02-11
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Kazakhstan's economy is estimated to have grown by 4.0 percent in 2024. A temporary acceleration to 4.5–5.0 percent growth is projected in 2025, supported by a one-off surge in oil production, export growth, and continued fiscal stimulus. Growth is expected to moderate post-2025 due to persistently low productivity and declining investment, highlighting the need for diversification and new growth levers. Inflation is easing but remains above target, projected at 7.5–8 percent in 2025 and 6 percent in 2026. Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with the deficit expected to remain at 3.1 percent of GDP in 2025 before narrowing to 2.7 percent in 2026. While public debt remains manageable, rising domestic borrowing costs and reliance on the National Oil Fund for fiscal support pose sustainability challenges. The report identifies key downside risks, including declining global oil demand, prolonged budgetary expansion, and the impacts of extreme weather events on agriculture and infrastructure. The special topic section of the report discusses revenue mobilization reforms. Kazakhstan’s tax revenues lag significantly behind its peers, limiting the funding of essential services and long-term growth opportunities. The report outlines a comprehensive tax reform agenda to address fiscal challenges. Proposed reforms include transitioning to a progressive income tax system, phasing out inefficient tax incentives, improving VAT compliance, aligning excise taxes with environmental goals, and enhancing tax administration.
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“World Bank. 2025. Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2024-2025: Funding the Future - Boosting Revenues for Lasting Investments. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42791 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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