Publication: Kyrgyz Republic Economic Update, Winter 2016: A Resilient Economy on a Slow Growth Trajectory
Loading...
Published
2016-12
ISSN
Date
2017-01-31
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The first part of the Economic Update analyzes recent macroeconomic trends and presents an assessment of the country’s short- and medium-term outlook. The Kyrgyz economy has remained resilient to the adverse regional environment, but growth prospects are modest and adjustments needed.Overall, the macroeconomic situation improved slightly since the shock stemming from Russia’s recession hit in [late 2014]. In the medium term, growth prospects should improve as remittances and the external demand environment recover.However, although risks have moderated, they remain elevated. The main sources of risk relate to possible adverse developments in neighboring economies, principally related to oil prices and exchange rate dynamics. This implies the need to rebuild fiscal buffers over the next 2-3 years through a mix of expenditure consolidation and revenue mobilization. The Special Focus Section discusses tax revenue reforms, presenting the findings of a recent World Bank Tax Administration Diagnostics Assessment (TADAT).
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2016. Kyrgyz Republic Economic Update, Winter 2016: A Resilient Economy on a Slow Growth Trajectory. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25973 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Kyrgyz Republic Economic Update No. 8, Fall/Winter 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02-07)Real GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent in January-November 2018 from 3.7 percent in the same period of 2017. This deceleration was the result of slower growth in both gold production and non-gold industry. Export performance remains weak, largely on account of a sharp slowdown in gold exports, and in spite of trade opportunities within the Eurasian Economic Union. Attracting private investment remains a challenge. Recent developments point to limited progress in addressing structural issues over the past few years. While the Kyrgyz Republic was able to avoid an external shock driven recession in 2014-15, the economy remains vulnerable to external economic shocks given its high dependence on an undiversified export base, workers’ remittances, and foreign aid.The fiscal position has improved with a strong tax revenue performance and cuts to capital outlays. This has helped keeping public debt under control following a sharp increase in 2014-15. With inflation pressures low, the monetary policy stance remains relaxed. The National Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in May 2018 to support economic growth and has maintained a managed float of the exchange rate.Going forward, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate slowly to 3.9 percent by 2020 supported by all the major sectors – industry, agriculture, construction and services. On the demand side, growth is projected to be driven by private consumption, investment and exports. The economy will continue to benefit from large remittance inflows and firming external demand. Strong remittances will support average consumption growth of around 3 percent in 2018–20. However, the current account deficit is projected to remain elevated at about 9 percent of GDP, reflecting structural constraints, the significant import content of public investment, and an indirect feed-through effect of remittances via imports. To rebuild fiscal buffers, the authorities are committed to reducing the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2020.Publication Armenia Country Economic Update, Winter 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03)Following an initial spike in early 2018, Armenia’s economic performance slowed during the rest of the year, but still estimated to have above 5 percent growth for the year. Inflationary pressures remained low, while the external balances deteriorated. The overperformance of the fiscal accounts reflected strong revenue collection, sound control over current spending, and underperformance of capital expenditure. The outlook, however, is more conservative.Publication Cote d'Ivoire Economic Update, March 2015(World Bank, Abidjan, 2015-03)First in a series, which aims to analyze the recent economic and financial situation in Côte d'Ivoire, this report analyzes the main macroeconomic developments and structural policies of the country from 2013 until mid-2014. It also reflects on the underlying factors of the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire since the end of the post-election crisis, to assess the likelihood of sustained economic growth and significant poverty reduction in the country. Finally, the report analyzes the effects of declining oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar against the euro and the CFA franc on the Ivorian economy. This edition does not examine the impact of strong economic growth on the Ivoirian population's well-being indicators such as, poverty, employment and inequality. Within the scope of this report, the objective is to understand the factors contributing to the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire. This economic update is targeted toward a larger audience, in order to stimulate constructive debate on public policy in the country and between the country and its development partners.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Economic Update No. 6, Fall/Winter 2017(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-12)The Kyrgyz economy appears to have recovered from the 2014-2015 external shocks. Over the first nine months of 2017, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by five percent, year-on-year, thanks to improvements in the external environment and a continued expansionary fiscal policy, which were mirrored by a strong gold production and a strengthening in domestic demand. The Kyrgyz economy performed robustly over 2017. Macroeconomic policies were supportive to growth, but the fiscal stance has deteriorated significantly and inflation has tilted upwards. Growth is estimated to have decelerated toward the end of 2017, and expected to pick up in 2018. The economy is expected to remain dependent on remittances. Private inflows will continue to support household incomes and boost domestic demand, but they also come with challenges. The first part of this Economic update analyzes recent macroeconomic trends and presents an assessment of the country’s short- and medium-term outlook. The Special Focus section discusses recent trends in labor migration and the implications of remittance dependence for macroeconomic policies.Publication Kyrgyz Republic : Moderating Growth and a Challenging Outlook(Washington, DC, 2014-10)Political developments at home and abroad have been prominent this year. Domestically, a new government was formed quickly after one of the coalition parties withdrew the support to Prime Minister Satylbaldiev in March, 2014. The new government, led by Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbayev, represents the same coalition of political parties providing continuity on most policies but also a fresh momentum for reforms in key sectors. The next round of parliamentary elections is scheduled for the autumn 2015. Internationally, the Kyrgyz Republic has made firm commitments towards accession to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia while tensions have appeared in relations with some neighbors. Growth has slowed down significantly and we have revised our projection for real GDP growth to 3 percent for 2014 as a whole from the 4 percent we projected in April. Despite robust government investment and gold exports, economic activity has moderated as the slowdown in Russia, the winding down of operations at the Manas Transit Center and increased tensions in trade relations with neighbors are affecting remittances and non-gold exports. Economic activity has been further affected by the poor agriculture harvest while difficulties expected in ensuring stable energy supply in the winter may add a further drag on activity in the rest of the year. Fast growth rates in credit to the private sector and in construction are leveling off as businesses report a more difficult operating environment.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.