Publication: Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2021/2022: Economic Recovery during Challenging Times
Date
2021-12-22
ISSN
Published
2021-12-22
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
After suffering a pandemic-driven
slump in 2020, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery is on track,
having sustained quarterly growth throughout Q3 2021.
Reduced COVID-19 cases and the loosening of mobility
restrictions support business activities and maintain the
rebound in consumer demand. However, annual inflation surged
to the highest recorded level since 2016, driven mostly by
food price inflation and large-scale disruptions in global
supply chains, eroding purchasing power, particularly for
lower-income households. We project real GDP growth in the
3.5-4.0 percent range in 2022, although the economy will
remain below the pre-pandemic baseline path for the entire
forecast horizon. Growth will be supported by robust
domestic activity, a supportive fiscal stance, and further
progress in vaccination. Despite the improving economic
outlook, downside risks remain. The risk of another
potential COVID-19 outbreak cannot be ruled out. Rising
inflation is another concern and would require a tighter
monetary stance, potentially affecting domestic borrowing
conditions. Volatile prices and uncertainty over the scale
of demand growth for oil are other risks that could weaken
the current account and pressure the exchange rate.
Citation
“World Bank. 2021. Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2021/2022: Economic Recovery during Challenging Times. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36772 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”