Publication: Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
Date
2008-01
ISSN
Published
2008-01
Author(s)
Wang, Jinxia
Mendelsohn, Robert
Dinar, Ariel
Huang, Jikun
Rozelle, Scott
Zhang, Lijuan
Abstract
Several studies addressing the supply
and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can
largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However,
these studies do not consider the effects of climate change.
This paper examines whether near future expected changes in
climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors
analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net
crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both
rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from
8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the
Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely
to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very
different in each region. The mid latitude region of China
may benefit from warming but the southern and northern
regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More
precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the
wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar
responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer
temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely
to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and
are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct
effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not
capture the effects of change in water flow which will be
very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself
if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the
likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the
losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future
climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water,
there may be large damages not addressed in this study.
Citation
“Wang, Jinxia; Mendelsohn, Robert; Dinar, Ariel; Huang, Jikun; Rozelle, Scott; Zhang, Lijuan. 2008. Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4470. © Washington, DC: World Bank. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/611167dd-47df-5670-afa0-a9664a3db24f License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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