Publication: How China's Farmers Adapt to Climate Change
Loading...
Published
2008-10
ISSN
Date
2012-06-01
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper uses a cross sectional method to analyze irrigation choice and crop choice across 8,405 farmers in 28 provinces in China. The findings show that Chinese farmers are more likely to irrigate when facing lower temperatures and less precipitation. Farmers in warmer places are more likely to choose oil crops, maize, and especially cotton and wheat, and are less likely to choose vegetables, potatoes, sugar, and especially rice and soybeans. In wetter locations, farmers are more likely to choose soybeans, oil crops, sugar, vegetables, cotton, and especially rice, and they are less likely to choose potatoes, wheat, and especially maize. The analysis of how Chinese farmers have adapted to current climate, provides insight into how they will likely adapt when climate changes. Future climate scenarios will cause farmers in China to want to reduce irrigation and shift toward oil crops, wheat, and especially cotton. In turn, farmers will shift away from potatoes, rice, vegetables, and soybeans. However, adaptation will likely vary greatly from region to region. Policy makers should anticipate that adaptation is important, that the magnitude of changes depends on the climate scenario, and that the desired changes depend on the location of each farm.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Wang, Jinxia; Mendelsohn, Robert; Dinar, Ariel; Huang, Jikun. 2008. How China's Farmers Adapt to Climate Change. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6915 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-01)Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study.Publication Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture : Ricardian Approach(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-09)This study uses the Ricardian approach to analyze the impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors. The study analyzes data from 11 of the country's 18 agro-ecological zones, representing more than 74 percent of the country, and survey of 1,000 farmers from 50 districts. Regressing of net revenue on climate, household, and soil variables show that these variables have a significant impact on the farmers' net revenue per hectare.The study carries out a marginal impact analysis of increasing temperature and changing precipitation across the four seasons. In addition, it examines the impact of uniform climate scenarios on farmers' net revenue per hectare. Additionally, it analyzes the net revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models for the years 2050 and 2100. In general, the results indicate that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation are both damaging to Ethiopian agriculture. Although the analysis did not incorporate the carbon fertilization effect, the role of technology, or the change in prices for the future, significant information for policy-making can be extracted.Publication Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe : A Ricardian Approach(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-07)This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country. The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe's smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant to changes in climate, indicating that irrigation is an important adaptation option to help reduce the impact of further changes in climate. An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training and access to credit and aid facilities and help farmers acquire livestock and other important farm assets can help improve net farm performance. Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizers and crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping season can also significantly improve net farm performance across households.Publication Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt : A Ricardian Approach(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-07)This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in addition to three other models, each representing an adaptation option that could be used to reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change. Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios (using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models) were considered. The results from the two climate change scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However, warming may also affect water resources and that would pose another problem for agricultural production. A policy should be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop management, water management, and land management. The favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use efficiency and early maturing varieties.Publication A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-04)This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications "with" and "without" country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones implies that the effects of climate change will vary across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Beyond Unicorns(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-07-28)Similar to many other countries around the world, the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has hit Indonesia hard. Latest estimates suggest that about 5.1 million people—equivalent to 2.4 percent of the working-age population—have lost their jobs, while an additional 24 million have had to work reduced hours due to the pandemic. As many as 50 percent of workers have experienced a reduction in earnings. The impact on living standards has been devastating, with more than 2.2 million Indonesians estimated to have been pushed into COVID-19-induced poverty in 2020. One unexpected silver lining from the crisis, however, has been the turbo-charged adoption of digital technologies. Businesses, both large and small, have flocked to digital technologies to try to ensure the continuity of their operations. School closures have forced students and teachers to adapt and explore digitally enabled remote learning options, including the adoption of a variety of EdTech solutions. HealthTech apps enabling remote consultations and the delivery of medicine have seen unprecedented growth in adoption rates. Confined at home due to mobility restrictions, Indonesians have switched to the internet for their entertainment and social needs, driving sharp growth in the usage of digital media (music and video streaming) and communications applications. With this pandemic-induced flight to digital expected to be permanent to a large extent, there is excitement about an even greater acceleration in what was already the fastest growing digital economy in Southeast Asia. But at the same time questions have also emerged about the possibility of the differential access to and adoption of digital technologies compounding existing inequalities. For a country that considers achieving balanced development one of its key priorities, this is an important new challenge.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.Publication Exploiting Synergies between Rooftop Solar PV and Energy Efficiency Investments in the Built Environment(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-12)The synergies between rooftop solar PV (RPV) and energy efficiency (EE) investments in the built environment include lower specific transaction costs, optimized RPV systems, shorter project payback periods (compared to RPV-only projects), and, for EE, enhanced project visibility. These synergies improve the likelihood of project implementation, which in turn helps to reduce peak demand, increase environmental benefits, improve energy security, and lower energy bills. Because the methods of financing and implementing RPV and EE in the built environment are often similar, it is wise to consider including an EE component when investing in an RPV project, and vice versa.Publication The Sub Prime Crisis : Implications for Emerging Markets(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-09)This paper discusses some of the key characteristics of the U.S. subprime mortgage boom and bust, contrasts them with characteristics of emerging mortgage markets, and makes recommendations for emerging market policy makers. The crisis has raised questions in the minds of many as to the wisdom of extending mortgage lending to low and moderate income households. It is important to note, however, that prior to the growth of subprime lending in the 1990s, U.S. mortgage markets already reached low and moderate-income households without taking large risks or suffering large losses. In contrast, in most emerging markets, mortgage finance is a luxury good, restricted to upper income households. As policy makers in emerging market seek to move lenders down market, they should adopt policies that include a variety of financing methods and should allow for rental or purchase as a function of the financial capacity of the household. Securitization remains a useful tool when developed in the context of well-aligned incentives and oversight. It is possible to extend mortgage lending down market without repeating the mistakes of the subprime boom and bust.