Policy Research Working Papers

Report Series: Policy Research Working Papers

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. Titles are submitted from units around the World Bank for internal review and inclusion in this series which is managed by the Development Economics Research Support unit. These are pre-print drafts prior to review and publication in formal journals.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 8006

Taxation and Capital Structure : Evidence from a Transition Economy

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Klapper, Leora ; Tzioumis, Konstantinos

The authors examine the effects of taxation on financing policy using the corporate tax reform in 2001 in Croatia as a natural experiment. Since the extant literature on tax effects on capital structure studies listed firms in developed countries, it is worth investigating whether the same results apply to privately-held, small and medium size firms in transition economies. The findings provide significant evidence that lower taxes have affected the capital structure of Croatian firms, resulting in increased equity levels and decreased long-term debt levels. The authors also find that smaller and more profitable firms were more likely to reduce their debt levels. These findings are consistent with the trade-off theory of capital structure, which suggests that lower taxes decrease the incentive to hold debt due to decreasing interest tax deductibility.
The Market for Retirement Products in Australia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Brunner, Gregory Gordon ; Thorburn, Craig

Australia introduced a mandatory retirement savings scheme in 1992. This built on pre-existing voluntary occupational plans. The new scheme has been very successful in expanding coverage and mobilizing large financial savings that are equal to close to 100 percent of GDP. However, Australia does not impose restrictions on payout options. The payout phase used to be dominated by lump sum withdrawals, which accounted for 80 percent of benefit payments as recently as 2002. But pension payments increased in recent years and now represent 45 percent of total payments. The vast majority of these pension payments take the form of term annuities and allocated annuities. The latter are similar to phased withdrawals in Chile but run for fixed terms of up to 25 years rather than for lifetime terms. The demand for life annuities and lifetime phased withdrawals is very limited. The paper discusses the factors that have shaped the pattern of demand for retirement products, including the availability of the universal age pension and the effect of clawback provisions, the impact of the high level of home ownership, and the widespread preference of retiring workers for reliance on self-annuitization. The paper also reviews the prudential regulation of superannuation funds and life insurance companies.
The Market for Retirement Products in Sweden

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Palmer, Edward

Far-reaching changes in the regulation of financial markets and the organization of public pensions in the 1980s and 1990s transformed the landscape for retirement products in Sweden. First, banking and insurance were extensively deregulated in the 1980s, while the securities markets experienced major expansion. Insurance received a large boost from the authorization of unit-linked products in the early 1990s. Second, the public pension system was reformed. Survivor benefits for widows were eliminated from the public pillar in the late 1980s, leading to a large increase in demand for term life insurance. The old defined benefit public pension system was replaced by a notional or nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) scheme, while a funded defined contribution (FDC) component was also created in the public pillar. The four occupational pension funds that cover the majority of Swedish workers were also converted into FDC schemes. This paper reviews the implications of these changes for the Swedish annuity market. It discusses the regulation of payout options in Sweden, highlighting the compulsory use of life annuities in the public pillar and the preference for term annuities in the occupational funds. It examines the performance of providers of retirement products, including the PPM, and reviews the increasing focus on risk-based regulation and supervision. The paper also emphasizes Sweden's success in moving in the direction of increased funding and privatization of old age insurance, while maintaining its basic character as a highly developed welfare state.
Export Surges : The Power of a Competitive Currency

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Freund, Caroline ; Pierola, Martha Denisse

How can countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, the authors examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least seven years. They find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation-which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued-and a reduction in exchange rate volatility. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. The authors examine why the exchange rate is so important in developing countries and find that the depreciation leads to a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation generates more entries into new export products and new markets, and the percentage of new entries that fail after one year declines. These new products and new markets are important, accounting for 25 percent of export growth during the surge in developing countries. The authors argue that maintaining a competitive currency leads firms to expand the product and market space for exports, inducing a large reorientation of the tradable sector.
Political Alternation as a Restraint on Investing in Influence : Evidence from the Post-Communist Transition

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Milanovic, Branko ; Hoff, Karla ; Horowitz, Shale

The authors develop and implement a method for measuring the frequency of changes in power among distinct leaders and ideologically distinct parties that is comparable across political systems. The authors find that more frequent alternation in power is associated with the emergence of better governance in post communist countries. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that firms seek durable protection from the state, which implies that expected political alternation is relevant to the decision whether to invest in influence with the governing party or, alternatively, to demand institutions that apply predictable rules, with equality of treatment, regardless of the party in power.
Are Women More Credit Constrained? Experimental Evidence on Gender and Microenterprise Returns

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) de Mel, Suresh ; McKenzie, David ; Woodruff, Christopher

This paper analyzes data from a randomized experiment on mean returns to capital in Sri Lankan micro-enterprises. The findings show greater returns among men than among women; indeed, returns were not different from zero for women. The authors explore different explanations for the lower returns among female owners, and find no evidence that the gender gap is explained by differences in ability, risk aversion, or entrepreneurial attitudes. Differential access to unpaid family labor and social constraints limiting sales to local areas are not important. However, there is evidence that women invested grants differently from men. A smaller share of the smaller grants remained in the female-owned enterprises, and men were more likely to spend the grant on working capital and women on equipment. The gender gap is largest when male-dominated sectors are compared with female-dominated sectors, although female returns are lower than male returns even for females working in the same industries as men. The authors examine the heterogeneity of returns to determine whether any group of businesses owned by women benefit from easing capital constraints. The results suggest there is a large group of high-return male owners and a smaller group of poor, high-ability, female owners who might benefit from more access to capital.
Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices : The Case of Mali

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Joseph, George ; Wodon, Quentin

Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the (short term) impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers (who benefit from an increase in prices) and food consumers (who loose out when the price increases), with a focus on poor producers and consumers. In Mali the impact of a change in the price of rice is not ambiguous because about half of the rice consumed in the country is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is much larger than the positive impact for producers. By contrast, for millet and sorghum, as well as corn, the impact is more ambiguous since much of the consumption is locally produced. Using a recent and comprehensive household survey, this paper provides an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in Mali using both simple statistical analysis and non-parametric methods. The paper finds that rising food prices for rice, millet and sorghum, corn, as well as wheat and bread could together lead to a substantial increase in poverty, with the increase in the price of rice having by far the largest negative impact.
Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization toward Non-Members?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Estevadeordal, Antoni ; Freund, Caroline ; Ornelas, Emanuel

This paper examines the effect of regionalism on unilateral trade liberalization using industry-level data on applied most-favored nation tariffs and bilateral preferences for ten Latin American countries from 1990 to 2001. The findings show that preferential tariff reduction in a given sector leads to a reduction in the external (most-favored nation) tariff in that sector. External liberalization is greater if preferences are granted to important suppliers. However, these "complementarity effects" of preferential liberalization on external liberalization do not arise in customs unions. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about a negative effect of preferential liberalization on external trade liberalization are unfounded.
In Pursuit of Balance : Randomization in Practice in Development Field Experiments

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Bruhn, Miriam ; McKenzie, David

Randomized experiments are increasingly used in development economics, with researchers now facing the question of not just whether to randomize, but how to do so. Pure random assignment guarantees that the treatment and control groups will have identical characteristics on average, but in any particular random allocation, the two groups will differ along some dimensions. Methods used to pursue greater balance include stratification, pair-wise matching, and re-randomization. This paper presents new evidence on the randomization methods used in existing randomized experiments, and carries out simulations in order to provide guidance for researchers. Three main results emerge. First, many researchers are not controlling for the method of randomization in their analysis. The authors show this leads to tests with incorrect size, and can result in lower power than if a pure random draw was used. Second, they find that in samples of 300 or more, the different randomization methods perform similarly in terms of achieving balance on many future outcomes of interest. However, for very persistent outcome variables and in smaller sample sizes, pair-wise matching and stratification perform best. Third, the analysis suggests that on balance the re-randomization methods common in practice are less desirable than other methods, such as matching.
Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices : The Case of Ghana

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Wodon, Quentin ; Tsimpo, Clarence ; Coulombe, Harold

Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the (short term) impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers (who benefit from an increase in prices) and food consumers (who loose out when the price increases), with a focus on poor producers and consumers. In Ghana, the impact of a change in the price of rice is not ambiguous because a large share of the rice consumed is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is much larger than the positive impact for producers. For maize by contrast, the impact is ambiguous since much of the consumption is locally produced. Using a recent and comprehensive household survey, this paper provides an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in Ghana using both simple statistical analysis and non-parametric methods. The paper finds that rising food prices for rice, maize, and other cereals would together lead to an increase in poverty, but that by contrast to a number of other countries, this increase, while not negligible, may not be as large as feared.