Publication: A Proxy Means Test for Targeted Social Protection Programs in Sudan
Loading...
Date
2022-11
ISSN
Published
2022-11
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This study seeks to support the efforts of Sudan in the targeting of the Sudan Emergency Safety Nets Project (SESNP) and any other future safety net programs in Sudan to those most in need. Sudan has faced numerous challenges for several years. Since its separation from South Sudan in 2011, the economy has experienced macroeconomic imbalances that have lasted for over a decade. In addition, the country has faced political instability, internal conflicts, and challenging climatic conditions. All of these challenges pose direct consequences to the poor. More recently, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have only exacerbated the economic and social situation in the country. In this context, the number of poor and vulnerable is expected to have increased considerably since the last reported official poverty rate, which accounted for 61.1% of the population in 2015. In light of these events, there is a growing consensus on the need of social safety net programs in the country. The proposed program, the SESNP, is expected to provide unconditional cash and food transfers to nearly 2 million Sudanese people (i.e., about 5% of the population). To support this program in targeting beneficiaries to improve the poverty impact of the program, we develop a Proxy Mean Tests (PMT) for Sudan based on the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) 2014/2015. The results indicate that the use of a PMT could considerably improve the program in reaching those most in need, while reducing expenditure towards those with adequate resources. This could improve both the poverty impact, as well as the sustainability of the program.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Ervin, Paul; Etang, Alvin; Namara, Suleiman. 2022. A Proxy Means Test for Targeted Social Protection Programs in Sudan. Policy Research Working Papers;10241. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38466 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication Engineering Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-29)As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild.Publication Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence from the Gulf Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21)This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydro-carbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the fiscal space of countries in which that space is significantly dictated by hydrocarbon income, with such shocks being uncorrelated with non-hydrocarbon output at the same time. Using a local projection-instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework, the paper estimates that short-run fiscal expenditure multipliers to be in the ballpark of 0.1–0.4. In addition, the findings show that multipliers are at the upper end of this interval during recessions, indicating that fiscal policy in the Gulf countries is particularly effective during economic downturns.Publication Stress Testing Survey to Survey Imputation: Understanding When Poverty Predictions Can Fail(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21)Accurate and timely poverty measurement is central to development policy, yet the availability of up-to-date high-quality household survey data remains limited—particularly in countries where poverty is most concentrated. Survey-to-survey imputation has emerged as a practical response to this challenge, allowing practitioners to update poverty estimates using recent surveys that lack direct welfare measures by borrowing information from other comprehensive surveys. A critical review of the method is provided, revisiting its statistical underpinnings and testing its limitations through extensive model-based simulations. Through these simulations, the analysis demonstrates how violations of parameter stability, omitted variable bias, and shifts in survey design can introduce substantial errors—particularly when imputing across time or under economic and structural change. Results show that standard corrections such as re-weighting or covariate standardization may fail to eliminate these biases, especially when imputing across time or under structural change. The performance of alternative model specifications is also evaluated under various methods, including performance under heteroskedastic errors, non-normality. The findings offer practical guidance for practitioners on when survey-to-survey imputation is likely to succeed, when it should be reconsidered, and how to communicate its limitations transparently in the context of poverty monitoring and policy design.Publication The Future of Poverty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15)Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication A Proxy Means Test for Sri Lanka(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)This paper intends to inform the effort of the Sri Lankan government to reform the targeting efficacy of its social protection programs, in particular, Samurdhi, which currently distributes benefits based on self-reported income. The paper develops a proxy means test for Sri Lanka based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016 and evaluates its performance for targeting benefits of Samurdhi. The paper considers a range of models and policy parameters that could be applied depending on data availability and country preferences. The results indicate that switching to a proxy means test could considerably improve the targeting performance of Samurdhi and would significantly improve the poverty impact of the program. The analysis finds that the performance of the proposed proxy means test model suffers when the coefficients are estimated from samples smaller than 1,000 households. However, the analysis does not find a similar loss of model performance when the model is estimated from seasonal data, provided the sample size is sufficiently large. The proposed model could be applied to targeting a variety of safety net programs after validating and refining the model by conducting a pilot survey.Publication A Proxy Means Test for Sri Lanka(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06)This paper intends to inform the effort of the Sri Lankan government to reform the targeting efficacy of its social protection programs, in particular, Samurdhi, which currently distributes benefits based on self-reported income. We develop a Proxy Means Test (PMT) for Sri Lanka based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016 and evaluate its performance for targeting benefits of Samurdhi. The paper considers a range of models and policy parameters that could be applied depending on data availability and country preferences. The results indicate that switching to a PMT could considerably improve the targeting performance of Samurdhi and would significantly improve the poverty impact of the program. We find that the performance of the proposed PMT model suffers when the coefficients are estimated from samples smaller than 1,000 households. However, we do not find a similar loss of model performance when the model is estimated from seasonal data, provided the sample size is sufficiently large. The model we propose could be applied to the targeting of a variety of safety net programs after validating and refining our model by conducting a pilot survey.Publication Sierra Leone Social Protection Assessment(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06)This assessment provides recommendations to help the government of Sierra Leone to put its Social Protection Policy into action. Ten years after civil war, and in the aftermath of the global crises, the key challenge for Sierra Leone in the area of social protection is to move from ad hoc emergency interventions towards a national social protection system. The assessment reviews current programs in light of risks and vulnerabilities faced by Sierra Leoneans during different stages of life. It concludes that to achieve the vision of the Social Protection Policy, it will be necessary to (a) fill program gaps while eliminating fragmentation; (b) develop effective mechanisms to maximize the poverty impact of interventions; and (c) strengthen institutional and coordination arrangements.Publication Decentralized Beneficiary Targeting in Large-Scale Development Programs : Insights from the Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-11)This paper contributes to the long-standing debate on the merits of decentralized beneficiary targeting in the administration of development programs, focusing on the large-scale Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program. Nationally-representative household survey data are used to systematically analyze the decentralized targeting performance of the program during the 2009-2010 agricultural season. The analysis begins with a standard targeting assessment based on the rates of program participation and the benefit amounts among the eligible and non-eligible populations, and provides decompositions of the national targeting performance into the inter-district, intra-district inter-community, and intra-district intra-community components. This approach identifies the relative contributions of targeting at each level. The results show that the Farm Input Subsidy Program is not poverty targeted and that the national government, districts, and communities are nearly uniform in their failure to target the poor, with any minimal targeting (or mis-targeting) overwhelmingly materializing at the community level. The findings are robust to the choice of the eligibility indicator and the decomposition method. The multivariate analysis of household program participation reinforces these results and reveals that the relatively well-off, rather than the poor or the wealthiest, and the locally well-connected have a higher likelihood of program participation and, on average, receive a greater number of input coupons. Since a key program objective is to increase food security and income among resource-poor farmers, the lack of targeting is a concern and should underlie considerations of alternative targeting approaches that, in part or completely, rely on proxy means tests at the local level.Publication Kenya Social Protection Sector Review : Executive Report(Nairobi, 2012-06)There is now broad consensus among policymakers that social protection is a powerful way to fight poverty and promote inclusive growth. This international consensus is most clearly articulated in the African Union's Social Policy Framework (SPF), which was endorsed by all African heads of state in 2009. The SPF explains that social protection includes 'social security measures and furthering income security; and also the pursuit of an integrated policy approach that has a strong developmental focus, such as job creation' the SPF commits governments to progressively realizing a minimum package of essential social protection that covers essential health care and benefits for children, informal workers, the unemployed, the elderly, and people with disabilities. Kenya has a long history of investing in social protection. Social protection in Kenya is defined as 'policies and actions, including legislative measures, that enhance the capacity of and opportunities for the poor and vulnerable to improve and sustain their lives, livelihoods, and welfare, that enable income-earners and their dependents to maintain a reasonable level of income through decent work, and that ensure access to affordable healthcare, social security, and social assistance.' However, the coverage of its social insurance schemes and safety net programs has tended to be low and their effectiveness limited. In 2005/06 the rate of poverty was 47 percent, although poverty rates were markedly higher in rural areas (50 percent) than in urban areas (34 percent). They also varied among provinces from a high of 74 percent in the North Eastern province to a low of 22 percent in Nairobi. This persistent poverty highlights the fact that social protection can play an important role in the effort to reduce poverty and promote human development in Kenya.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Services Unbound(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09)Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01)Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.Publication Unlocking Blue Carbon Development(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-11)The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical framework to guide governments in catalyzing and scaling up public and private investment in Blue Carbon as part of their blue economy development. It does this by describing in detail a Blue Carbon Readiness Framework, a step-by-step, well-illustrated guide with simple checklists. Client countries can use the illustrations and checklists to determine their readiness to catalyze and scale up investment in blue carbon credit finance. The Blue Carbon Readiness Framework consists of three pillars: 1. Data and Analytics; 2. Policy and Institutions; 3. Finance.