Publication: Nigeria Development Update, June 2020: Nigeria in Times of COVID-19 - Laying Foundations for a Strong Recovery
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2020-06
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2020-06
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This edition of the Nigeria Development Update provides policy options that Nigerian policymakers may consider in order to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 (coronavirus) and lay the foundation for a strong recovery. These policy options are organized in the five areas: 1. Containing the COVID-19 outbreak and preparing to deal with a more severe outbreak; 2. Enhancing macroeconomic management to boost investor confidence; 3. Safeguarding and mobilizing revenues; 4. Reprioritizing public spending to protect critical development expenditures; 5. Supporting economic activity and provide relief for poor and vulnerable communities.
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“World Bank. 2020. Nigeria Development Update, June 2020: Nigeria in Times of COVID-19 - Laying Foundations for a Strong Recovery. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34046 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Nigeria Development Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)This report highlights how the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis has impacted Nigeria’s economy. In 2020, Nigeria’s economy is expected to experience its deepest recession since the 1980s due to the COVID-19-related disruptions, notably lower oil prices and remittances, enhanced risk aversion in global capital markets, and mobility restrictions. In the baseline scenario—which assumes further macroeconomic reforms and a gradual recovery in oil prices—Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020, growing modestly by 1.1 percent in 2021, and then recovering gradually towards the estimated population growth rate of 2.6 percent. With the rate of economic growth remaining below the population growth rate, per-capita incomes would continue declining and better full-time jobs will be much harder to find. 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However, the eruption of Taal Volcano in early January, the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the region, and the rise of COVID-19 infection cases in the Philippines in March, forced the economy to a near halt in the latter part of March due to severe disruptions in manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and hospitality, construction, and trade. The economy contracted by 0.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first contraction in over two decades, and was a sharp reversal from the 5.7 percent growth over the same period in 2019. Leading indicators that track economic activity in real time suggest that the contraction would be even more severe in the second quarter as most regions of the country entered an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in mid-March.
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