Publication: India Development Update, July 2020
Abstract
The pandemic has afflicted India at a time when its economy had already been decelerating. Defying a long-term accelerating path, real GDP growth moderated from 7.0 percent in 2017-18 to 6.1 percent in 2018-19 and 4.2 percent in 2019-20. The pre-COVID-19 growth deceleration was perceived to be due to long-standing structural rigidities in key input markets; continuing balance sheet stress in the banking and corporate sector, which were compounded more recently by stress in the non-banking segment of the financial sector; increased risk aversion among banks and corporates; a decline in rural demand; and a subdued global economy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. India Development Update, July 2020. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34367 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Afghanistan Development Update, July 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)The global COVID-19 crisis has compounded the daunting challenges currently facing Afghanistan. Afghanistan has officially recorded 31,238 cases and 733 deaths as of end-June, with actual cases and fatalities expected to be far higher. The number of cases is increasing rapidly, with no sign that the pandemic is under control. With major disruptions to domestic economic activity, regional trade, and remittance flows, the economy is now contracting rapidly. With declining incomes and increasing food prices, hardship is increasing, with the poverty rate expected to increase to up to 72 percent over 2020. Due to reduced trade, administrative disruptions, and declining economic output, government revenues fell by more than a third below target levels in May, placing major pressure on government finances. COVID-19 has hit Afghanistan in the midst of a difficult political transition, an intensifying conflict, and significant uncertainty regarding future grant support.Publication Bhutan Development Update, August 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08)Bhutan’s economy has been severely affected by Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and the subsequent border closure to contain a domestic outbreak of the pandemic. In this context, economic growth is estimated to have decelerated from 3.8 percent in FY2018-19 to 1.5 percent in FY2019-20. Exports and imports have decreased significantly, in line with weak foreign and domestic demand and disruptions to trade. The government outlined a comprehensive national response to COVID-19 to protect vulnerable households and minimize the impact on employment, growth, and financial stability. Health measures are aimed at containing the pandemic and strengthening healthcare system resilience. The recovery of manufacturing and other exporting industries is likely to be gradual, because of the slowdown in India, Bhutan’s main export market. Similarly, the construction sector is expected to recover slowly reflecting a limited pipeline of public sector infrastructure projects.Publication Nigeria Development Update, June 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)This edition of the Nigeria Development Update provides policy options that Nigerian policymakers may consider in order to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 (coronavirus) and lay the foundation for a strong recovery. These policy options are organized in the five areas: 1. Containing the COVID-19 outbreak and preparing to deal with a more severe outbreak; 2. Enhancing macroeconomic management to boost investor confidence; 3. Safeguarding and mobilizing revenues; 4. Reprioritizing public spending to protect critical development expenditures; 5. Supporting economic activity and provide relief for poor and vulnerable communities.Publication Papua New Guinea Economic Update, July 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)Papua New Guinea’s economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis due to weaker demand and less favorable terms of trade. Pandemic-related global and national movement restrictions have weakened external and domestic demand and affected commodity prices, which will lead to an economic contraction, wider financing gaps in the external and fiscal accounts, and higher unemployment and poverty than previously anticipated in 2020. The authorities reacted swiftly to the emerging external shock by developing a package of emergency health and economic relief measures. While the focus of the authorities is currently on crisis mitigation measures, they should also look beyond the current year at a more robust and resilient recovery over the medium term. In addition to the economic analysis, the report contains additional sections dedicated to physical infrastructure development in PNG. The infrastructure section suggests that the provision of more equitable access to quality infrastructure will be crucial once the country moves to the recovery and resilience phase of COVID-19 response. While improving the quality of infrastructure in PNG faces serious constraints, the country’s abundance of natural resources is a potential source for financing the work and government’s stated vision and strategy can provide necessary policy guidance.Publication Kazakhstan Economic Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The fallout of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has hit the economy more than the crises in 2008 and 2015. The pandemic is projected to shrink by 2.5 percent this year. The economy is expected to grow modesty by 2.5 percent next year, based on an improved global economic outlook. This report estimates Kazakhstan’s poverty rate will increase to 12-14 percent in 2020 from a baseline of 6 percent Nevertheless, there are significant risks because of uneven economic recovery across countries due to the protracted pandemic and higher debt-related risks to the global financial market. The domestic financial sector is also exposed to a higher risk of growing non-performing loans if support measures are withdrawn.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication FY 2025 China Country Opinion Survey Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-04)The Country Opinion Survey in China assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in China perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in China on 1) their views regarding the general environment in China; 2) their overall attitudes toward the WBG in China; 3) overall impressions of the WBG’s effectiveness and results, knowledge work and activities, and communication and information sharing in China; and 4) their perceptions of the WBG’s future role in China.Publication Stress Testing Survey to Survey Imputation: Understanding When Poverty Predictions Can Fail(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21)Accurate and timely poverty measurement is central to development policy, yet the availability of up-to-date high-quality household survey data remains limited—particularly in countries where poverty is most concentrated. Survey-to-survey imputation has emerged as a practical response to this challenge, allowing practitioners to update poverty estimates using recent surveys that lack direct welfare measures by borrowing information from other comprehensive surveys. A critical review of the method is provided, revisiting its statistical underpinnings and testing its limitations through extensive model-based simulations. Through these simulations, the analysis demonstrates how violations of parameter stability, omitted variable bias, and shifts in survey design can introduce substantial errors—particularly when imputing across time or under economic and structural change. Results show that standard corrections such as re-weighting or covariate standardization may fail to eliminate these biases, especially when imputing across time or under structural change. The performance of alternative model specifications is also evaluated under various methods, including performance under heteroskedastic errors, non-normality. The findings offer practical guidance for practitioners on when survey-to-survey imputation is likely to succeed, when it should be reconsidered, and how to communicate its limitations transparently in the context of poverty monitoring and policy design.Publication The World Bank Group in Tanzania, Fiscal Years 2012–22(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-22)This evaluation assesses the relevance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group's support to Tanzania between Fiscal Years 2012 and 2022. Over the past decade, Tanzania has experienced resilient growth, with an average annual per capita GDP increase of 2.2%. However, poverty remains widespread and slow to decline, underscoring the need for more inclusive growth. The report examines the Bank Group's strategic and operational approaches during this period, which were aligned with Tanzania's development priorities and focused on industrialization, human development, and public sector reforms. The evaluation includes thematic chapters on the Bank Group's support for private sector-led growth and spatial transformation, as well as lessons to inform future support to the country.Publication Decarbonizing Air Transport(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-13)The US-China direct flights in mid-2023 were only 7 percent of those available in mid-2019. This quasi-experiment informs the debate on air transport de-carbonization. An estimated structural model shows that re-establishing the pre-pandemic direct connectivity could increase passengers by 387 percent and reduce prices by 63 percent. Moreover, due to the suppression of flights, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 80 percent. A counterfactual exercise shows that maintaining pre-COVID connectivity and achieving the same emissions reduction through a market mechanism (i.e. offsetting), would have resulted in more passengers (+365 percent), lower prices (−60 percent), and lower reduction in consumer surplus (−40 percent) than observed in the post COVID-19 equilibrium. ThisPublication The World Bank Group in Georgia, 2014-23(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-30)This Country Program Evaluation assesses the performance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group’s support to Georgia in achieving the country’s development objectives. In the decade leading up to the evaluation period, Georgia pursued economic reforms to attract critical investments for becoming a regional trade and transport hub. Ambitious economic reforms went hand in hand with efforts to improve human development and strengthening social protection systems. Growing geopolitical tensions and internal political polarization have challenged Georgia’s reform progress in recent years. The Bank Group’s strategy adapted well to Georgia’s development needs and was well coordinated with other development partners. It successfully employed a range of instruments to help increase competitiveness, growth, and job creation, and effectively contributed to improved infrastructure and increased trade by using programmatic and innovative approaches. The Bank Group’s regular investments in analytical work and the switch to results-based programmatic support helped improve the efficiency and effectiveness of education and health care systems. The IEG offers the following lessons based on the evidence and analysis in the Country Program Evaluation: (i) Prioritizing Bank Group support around the move towards deeper regional integration was an effective anchor for key economic reforms for economic convergence. (ii) Pursuing a selective and adaptive approach in a country with high implementation capacity and institutions, strong coordination among development partners, and access to a wide range of external resources can allow the Bank Group to exercise significant influence in areas of comparative advantage and global expertise. (iii) A stronger focus on outcome-based programmatic approaches helped to build local capacity and crowd-in partner financing.