India Development Update, July 2020

Abstract

The pandemic has afflicted India at a time when its economy had already been decelerating. Defying a long-term accelerating path, real GDP growth moderated from 7.0 percent in 2017-18 to 6.1 percent in 2018-19 and 4.2 percent in 2019-20. The pre-COVID-19 growth deceleration was perceived to be due to long-standing structural rigidities in key input markets; continuing balance sheet stress in the banking and corporate sector, which were compounded more recently by stress in the non-banking segment of the financial sector; increased risk aversion among banks and corporates; a decline in rural demand; and a subdued global economy.