Publication:
The Sub Prime Crisis : Implications for Emerging Markets

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (272.28 KB)
5,752 downloads
English Text (147.22 KB)
753 downloads
Published
2008-09
ISSN
Date
2012-06-04
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper discusses some of the key characteristics of the U.S. subprime mortgage boom and bust, contrasts them with characteristics of emerging mortgage markets, and makes recommendations for emerging market policy makers. The crisis has raised questions in the minds of many as to the wisdom of extending mortgage lending to low and moderate income households. It is important to note, however, that prior to the growth of subprime lending in the 1990s, U.S. mortgage markets already reached low and moderate-income households without taking large risks or suffering large losses. In contrast, in most emerging markets, mortgage finance is a luxury good, restricted to upper income households. As policy makers in emerging market seek to move lenders down market, they should adopt policies that include a variety of financing methods and should allow for rental or purchase as a function of the financial capacity of the household. Securitization remains a useful tool when developed in the context of well-aligned incentives and oversight. It is possible to extend mortgage lending down market without repeating the mistakes of the subprime boom and bust.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Gwinner, William B.; Sanders, Anthony. 2008. The Sub Prime Crisis : Implications for Emerging Markets. Policy Research Working Paper No. 4726. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6976 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12) Iimi, Atsushi
    Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    From Policy to Practice: Lessons from the Implementation of the Refugee Work Rights Policy in Ethiopia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-10) Perez, Ana Maria; Rozo, Sandra V.
    This paper examines the early implementation of Ethiopia’s refugee work rights policy, with a focus on the issuance of permits that enable refugees to engage in economic activities. Building on significant legal and institutional advances under the 2019 Refugee Proclamation and subsequent directives, the analysis explores how these reforms are being operationalized in practice. Using a mixed-methods approach, combining document review, administrative data analysis, and semi-structured interviews, the paper identifies both progress and remaining challenges. Permit issuance has increased since the adoption of detailed operational guidance in 2024, reflecting the Government of Ethiopia’s commitment to operationalizing its progressive legal framework and ensuring that refugees can exercise their right to work. However, take-up remains modest, with about 5.2 percent of the working-age population holding a permit. Preliminary evidence suggests that coordination gaps, limited subnational capacity, low awareness among refugees and employers, and disincentives to formalize in a largely informal labor market are contributing to the low take-up. The paper offers policy suggestions, grounded in the Ethiopian context and emerging evidence, to help translate legal commitments into improved labor market outcomes for refugees.
  • Publication
    Monitoring Global Aid Flows: A Novel Approach Using Large Language Models
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04) Luo, Xubei; Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji; Scruggs, Andrew Conner
    Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400,000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    IFC Financials and Projects 2014 : Big Challenges, Big Solutions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2014-09-25) International Finance Corporation
    International Finance Corporation (IFC or the Corporation) is the largest global development institution focused on the private sector in developing countries. Established in 1956, IFC is owned by 184 member countries, a group that collectively determines its policies. IFC is a member of the World Bank Group (WBG)1 but is a legal entity separate and distinct from IBRD, IDA, MIGA, and ICSID, with its own Articles of Agreement, share capital, financial structure, management, and staff. Membership in IFC is open only to member countries of IBRD. At the 2013 Spring Meetings, the WBG adopted two ambitious goals: to end extreme poverty by 2030 and to boost shared prosperity for the poorest 40 percent in developing countries. At the Annual Meetings in October 2013, the Board of Governors approved the first strategy for the WBG focused on delivery of transformational solutions, marshaling combined resources more effectively, and accelerating collaboration with the private sector and our development partners. IFC s strategic focus areas are: strengthening the focus on frontier markets; addressing climate change and ensuring environmental and social sustainability; addressing constraints to private sector growth in infrastructure, health, education, and the food-supply chain; developing local financial markets; and building long-term client relationships in emerging markets.
  • Publication
    Mongolia Financial Sector Assessment
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank
    As the Mongolian mortgage market grows rapidly, and the Government of Mongolia (GoM) pursues an ambitious social housing agenda, there is an urgent need for a holistic sector approach. The following three key areas require attention from policymakers: first, there is a need to better balance housing supply and demand, which requires the authorities to focus on prudent mortgage lending standards and supervision, as well as on provision of housing infrastructure and zoned land. Second, it will be important to ensure effective implementation of ongoing and planned public housing finance programs, with a focus on preventing mortgage market distortions in pricing, emphasizing robust planning and rigorous transparency and governance. Third, authorities should aim for better balance in the composition of mortgage funding, with a focus on improvement in the legal and regulatory framework for capital markets, as well as Mongolian Mortgage Corporation (MIK) governance, products and operations. The Mongolian mortgage market is exhibiting strong growth, with portfolio outstanding increasing by 190 percent to Mongolian Tughrik (MNT) 656 billion (US$482 million) between 2009 and end-2011. This represents 8 percent of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) and 12 percent of the 2011 banking loan book. The sector is highly concentrated, with top 4 lenders accounting for 89 percent of the market, as well as spatially in and around Ulaanbaatar. Housing prices have risen sharply in the last two years, particularly in 2011, when the increase for the predominantly mortgaged market segment was over 36 percent. While mortgage lending growth rates are consistent with the overall growth of household credit, real estate prices significantly outpaced Consumer Price Index (CPI) and GDP growth in 2011. Currently non-performing loans (NPL) are very low due to the unseasoned mortgage portfolio; however, high debt-to-income (DTI) ratio levels may exacerbate future loan age-related and cyclical delinquency increases. Due in part to extreme climatic constraints, shortage of zoned and serviced land, and infrastructure bottlenecks, housing supply is severely constrained. Large-scale, publicly-funded, subsidized housing initiatives, such as the '100,000 Apartments' Program, need to be carefully planned, so that they cause minimal distortion to the broader housing finance market.
  • Publication
    Europe and Central Asia Housing Finance Crisis Prevention and Resolution : A Review of Policy Options
    (Washington, DC, 2013-03) World Bank
    The objective of this paper, besides offering insight in the regional and global development and stability issues, is to initiate a dialog with housing finance market stakeholders on the course of action appropriate for their jurisdictions. The policy options presented in the paper are practical and implementable and should frame discussions between public and private housing finance market participants. It offers observations of the recent Europe and Central Asia (ECA) market developments and presents a menu of policy actions that should be considered by the mortgage regulators to address the current challenges and to better prepare for next cyclical events. The scope of the paper is on the mortgage finance in ECA region. Some of the policy measures discussed deal with the real estate market evolution- notably the market observatories- as the real estate market evolutions are intricately linked with the cyclicality of the mortgage credit (and with the broad business cycles) and this linkage should be analyzed and considered by the mortgage market stakeholders. The policy options discussed in this paper are: (a) interconnected; and (b) need to be tailored to the specific country circumstances. The paper is structured as follows: after an overview of ECA mortgage market characteristics, key elements of the post-2008 performance are discussed in details- Non-Performing Loan (NPL) and funding mechanisms evolution. A number of policy options that can be utilized in a crisis management and counter-cyclical context are suggested.
  • Publication
    Financial Sector Assessment Program - Poland : Housing Finance Technical Note
    (Washington, DC, 2014-01) World Bank
    This note primarily addresses the mortgage market development objectives, although the regulator is encouraged to consider the use of the macro prudential tools at its disposal for institutional and systemic stability of the mortgage sector as the current portfolio outstanding is large and risky and thus presents a negative performance outlook. The rest of the material is structured as follows. Firstly, brief background information on recent Polish mortgage sector evolution provides context. Secondly, details of certain regulatory initiatives are discussed with the view on potential strengthening. Thirdly, suggestions for modernization of certain features of the current capital market funding framework are provided; specifically on expanding the issuance of Mortgage Covered Bond (MCBs) to the universal banks as well as bringing the framework in line with the latest global best practices.
  • Publication
    Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-10-11) Ghosh, Swati R.; Canuto, Otaviano; Canuto, Otaviano; Ghosh, Swati R.
    The 2008 financial crisis has highlighted the challenges associated with global financial integration and emphasized the importance of macro financial linkages. In the financial sector, attention is being directed toward macro prudential regulations that are geared toward the stability of the financial system as a whole. The Third Basel Accord (Basel III) aims to dampen the pro-cyclicality of the financial sector and to reduce cross sectional systemic risks partly by introducing measures to address liquidity and issues of banks being too big to fail. In the macro arena, the facts that price stability was not sufficient to guarantee macroeconomic stability and that financial imbalances developed despite low inflation and small output gaps have highlighted the need for additional tools (macro prudential policies) to complement monetary policy in countercyclical management. Emerging markets face different conditions and have key structural features that can have a bearing on the relevance and efficacy of the measures. The chapters in this volume discuss the challenges of dealing with macro financial linkages and explore the policy toolkit available for dealing with systemic risks with particular reference to emerging markets. This report is organized as follows: chapter one is adapting macro prudential approaches to emerging and developing economies; chapter two is adapting micro prudential regulation for emerging markets; chapter three presents capital flow volatility and systemic risk in emerging markets: the policy toolkit; chapter four presents monetary policy and macro prudential regulation: whither emerging markets; chapter five deals with macro prudential policies to mitigate financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets; chapter six presents sailing through the global financial storm; and chapter seven presents operation of macro prudential policy measures.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Doing Business 2009 : Comparing Regulation in 181 Economies
    (Washington, DC : World Bank and Palgave Macmillon, 2008) International Finance Corporation; World Bank
    Doing Business 2009 is the sixth in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 181 economies from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe and over time. Regulations affecting 10 stages of the life of a business are measured: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business. Data in Doing Business 2009 are current as of June 1, 2008. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where, and why. The methodology for the legal rights of lenders and borrowers, part of the getting credit indicators, changed for Doing Business 2009. The paper includes the following headings: overview, starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business.
  • Publication
    Economy Profile of United States
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11-01) World Bank Group
    Doing Business 2018 is the 15th in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. This economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for United States. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulation and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 190 economies; for 2018 United States ranks 6. Doing Business measures aspects of regulation affecting 11 areas of the life of a business. Ten of these areas are included in this year’s ranking on the ease of doing business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. Doing Business also measures features of labor market regulation, which is not included in this year’s ranking. Data in Doing Business 2018 are current as of June 1, 2017. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms of business regulation have worked, where and why.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Vietnam
    (World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01) World Bank
    Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.
  • Publication
    Aid and Trust in Country Systems
    (2009-07-01) Knack, Stephen; Eubank, Nicholas
    The 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness sets targets for increased use by donors of recipient country systems for managing aid. A consensus view holds that country systems are strengthened when donors trust recipients to manage aid funds, but undermined when donors manage aid through their own separate parallel systems. This paper provides an analytical framework for understanding donors decisions to trust in country systems or instead to micro-manage aid using their own systems and procedures. Where country systems are sufficiently weak, the development impact of aid is reduced by donors reliance on them. Trust in country systems will be sub-optimal, however, if donors have multiple objectives in aid provision rather than a sole objective of maximizing development outcomes. Empirical tests are conducted using data from an OECD survey designed to monitor progress toward Paris Declaration goals. Trust in country systems is measured in three ways: use of the recipient s public financial management systems, use of direct budget support, and use of program-based approaches. The authors show using fixed effects regression that a donor s trust in recipient country systems is positively related to (1) trustworthiness or quality of those systems, (2) tolerance for risk on the part of the donor s constituents, as measured by public support for providing aid, and (3) the donor s ability to internalize more of the benefits of investing in country systems, as measured by the donor s share of all aid provided to a recipient.