Publication: Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009
Date
2009-07
ISSN
Published
2009-07
Author(s)
Abstract
Newly available data show that
remittance flows to developing countries reached $328
billion in 2008, larger than previous estimate of $305
billion. Remittances grew rapidly during 2007 and 2008, but
have slowed down in many corridors since the last quarter of
2008. In line with a recent downward revision in the World
Bank's forecast of global economic growth, also lowered
forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries to
-7.3 percent in 2009 from the earlier forecast of -5
percent. Flows to Latin America have been falling in a
lagged response to the construction sector slowdown in the
US, but there are emerging signs of a bottoming out. In
contrast, flows to South Asia and East Asia have been
strong; but there is risk of a slowdown going forward. The
predicted decline in remittances is far smaller than that
for private flows to developing countries. The resilience of
remittances arises from the fact that while new migration
flows have declined, the stock of migrants has been
relatively unaffected by the crisis. Sources of risk to this
outlook include uncertainty about the depth and duration of
the current crisis, unpredictable movements in exchange
rates, and the possibility that immigration controls may be
tightened further in major destination countries.
Citation
“Ratha, Dilip; Mohapatra, Sanket; Silwal, Ani. 2009. Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009. Migration and Development Brief; No. 10. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/f0f3a876-6c26-5013-90d1-b2649e8b94a9 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”