Publication: Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead
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2009-11
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2012-08-13
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Newly available data show that officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous estimate of $328 billion. Based on monthly and quarterly data released by some central banks and in line with the World Bank's global economic outlook we estimate that remittance flows to developing countries will fall to $317 billion in 2009. This 6.1 percent decline is smaller than our earlier expectation of a 7.3 percent fall. While new migration flows have fallen, existing migrants are not returning even though the job market has been weak in many destination countries. We maintain our expectation of a recovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011, but the recovery is likely to be shallow. In all the regions, remittance flows are likely to face three downside risks: a jobless economic recovery, tighter immigration controls, and unpredictable exchange rate movements. Despite these risks, remittances are expected to remain more resilient than private capital flows and will become even more important as a source of external financing in many developing countries. Policy responses should involve efforts to facilitate migration and remittances, to make these flows cheaper, safer and more productive for both the sending and the receiving countries.
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“Mohapatra, Sanket; Ratha, Dilip; Silwal, Ani. 2009. Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead. Migration and Development Brief; No. 11. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/10958 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Outlook for Remittance Flows 2011-12 : Recovery After the Crisis, But Risks Lie Ahead(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-11)Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to increase by 6 percent to $325 billion in 2010. This marks a healthy recovery from a 5.5 percent decline registered in 2009. Remittance flows are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1 percent in 2012, to reach $374 billion by 2012. This outlook for remittance flows, however, is subject to the risks of a fragile global economic recovery, volatile currency and commodity price movements, and rising anti-immigration sentiment in many destination countries. 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Remittances are now being factored into sovereign ratings in middle-income countries and debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. Countries are also becoming increasingly aware of the income and wealth of overseas diaspora as potential sources of capital. Some countries are showing interest in financial instruments such as diaspora bonds and securitization of future remittances to raise international capital.Publication Outlook for Remittance Flows 2012-14 : Remittance Flows to Developing Countries Exceed $350 Billion in 2011(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-12-01)Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to have reached $351 billion in 2011, up 8 percent over 2010. For the first time since the global financial crisis, remittance flows to all six developing regions rose in 2011. 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However, remittance costs continue to remain high, especially in Africa and in small nations where remittances provide a life line to the poor.Publication Outlook for Remittance Flows 2011-13 : Remittance Flows Recover to pre-Crisis Levels(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-05)Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries recovered quickly to $325 billion in 2010 after the global financial crisis. But they have not kept pace with rising prices in recipient countries. Remittance flows are expected to grow at lower but more sustainable rates of 7-8 percent annually during 2011-13 to reach $404 billion by 2013. Remittance flows to Latin America are growing again in 2011 because of the stabilization of the U.S. economy. Remittance flows from Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia have been strong due to high oil prices. However, weak job markets in Western Europe are creating pressures to reduce migration. The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa has brought a great deal of uncertainty for migration and remittance flows. These political crises and the recent global financial crisis have highlighted, once again, the need for high-frequency data on migration and remittances.Publication Outlook for Remittance Flows 2008-2010 : Growth Expected to Moderate Significantly, But Flows to Remain Resilient(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-11)The outlook for remittances for the rest of 2008 and 2009-10 remains as uncertain as the outlook for global growth, oil and non-oil commodity prices, and currency exchange rates. In the past, remittances have been noted to be stable or even counter-cyclical, during an economic downturn in the recipient economy, and resilient in the face of a slowdown in the source country. This time, however, the crisis has affected all countries, creating additional uncertainties.
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