Publication: Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead
Date
2009-11
ISSN
Published
2009-11
Author(s)
Abstract
Newly available data show that
officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries
reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous
estimate of $328 billion. Based on monthly and quarterly
data released by some central banks and in line with the
World Bank's global economic outlook we estimate that
remittance flows to developing countries will fall to $317
billion in 2009. This 6.1 percent decline is smaller than
our earlier expectation of a 7.3 percent fall. While new
migration flows have fallen, existing migrants are not
returning even though the job market has been weak in many
destination countries. We maintain our expectation of a
recovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011,
but the recovery is likely to be shallow. In all the
regions, remittance flows are likely to face three downside
risks: a jobless economic recovery, tighter immigration
controls, and unpredictable exchange rate movements. Despite
these risks, remittances are expected to remain more
resilient than private capital flows and will become even
more important as a source of external financing in many
developing countries. Policy responses should involve
efforts to facilitate migration and remittances, to make
these flows cheaper, safer and more productive for both the
sending and the receiving countries.
Citation
“Ratha, Dilip; Mohapatra, Sanket; Silwal, Ani. 2009. Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 : A Better-Than-Expected Outcome So Far, But Significant Risks Ahead. Migration and Development Brief; No. 11. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/427b5dd5-e939-53df-a8ce-5e76f53a35ba License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”