Publication: Beyond Keynesianism : Global Infrastructure Investments in Times of Crisis
Loading...
Date
2012-01-01
ISSN
Published
2012-01-01
Author(s)
Doemeland, Doerte
Editor(s)
Abstract
As the world recovers only slowly from the 2008 financial crisis and Europe is facing a looming debt crisis, concerns have increased that the "new normal" -- a period of high unemployment, low returns on investment, high risks, and low growth -- may become protracted in advanced economies. If growth remains weak, unemployment rates and debt levels will be slow to recede. Consequently, the global recovery may continue to be fragile for years to come. What the world needs now is a growth-lifting strategy. This strategy could take the form of a global infrastructure initiative. Since debt levels are high, governments in the United States and Europe could increase demand and support growth through investments in bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects that are self-financing. An infrastructure initiative should, however, go beyond the borders of advanced countries and include developing countries. Economic and social returns to infrastructure investments tend to be high in developing countries, which have become increasingly important drivers of global growth. At the same time, infrastructure investments require capital goods, most of which are produced in high-income countries. Scaling up infrastructure investment in developing countries could therefore help generate a virtuous cycle in support of a global recovery.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Doemeland, Doerte; Lin, Justin Yifu. 2012. Beyond Keynesianism : Global Infrastructure Investments in Times of Crisis. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5940. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3225 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication Engineering Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-29)As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild.Publication Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence from the Gulf Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21)This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydro-carbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the fiscal space of countries in which that space is significantly dictated by hydrocarbon income, with such shocks being uncorrelated with non-hydrocarbon output at the same time. Using a local projection-instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework, the paper estimates that short-run fiscal expenditure multipliers to be in the ballpark of 0.1–0.4. In addition, the findings show that multipliers are at the upper end of this interval during recessions, indicating that fiscal policy in the Gulf countries is particularly effective during economic downturns.Publication Stress Testing Survey to Survey Imputation: Understanding When Poverty Predictions Can Fail(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21)Accurate and timely poverty measurement is central to development policy, yet the availability of up-to-date high-quality household survey data remains limited—particularly in countries where poverty is most concentrated. Survey-to-survey imputation has emerged as a practical response to this challenge, allowing practitioners to update poverty estimates using recent surveys that lack direct welfare measures by borrowing information from other comprehensive surveys. A critical review of the method is provided, revisiting its statistical underpinnings and testing its limitations through extensive model-based simulations. Through these simulations, the analysis demonstrates how violations of parameter stability, omitted variable bias, and shifts in survey design can introduce substantial errors—particularly when imputing across time or under economic and structural change. Results show that standard corrections such as re-weighting or covariate standardization may fail to eliminate these biases, especially when imputing across time or under structural change. The performance of alternative model specifications is also evaluated under various methods, including performance under heteroskedastic errors, non-normality. The findings offer practical guidance for practitioners on when survey-to-survey imputation is likely to succeed, when it should be reconsidered, and how to communicate its limitations transparently in the context of poverty monitoring and policy design.Publication The Future of Poverty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15)Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Public-Private Partnerships in Europe and Central Asia : Designing Crisis-Resilient Strategies and Bankable Projects(World Bank, 2011-02-24)This study aims to help governments design sustainable Public-Private Partnership (PPP) strategies and projects in the context of the changed circumstances brought on by the global financial and economic crisis that began in the fall of 2008. The study analyses the impact and implication of the crisis on PPP infrastructure projects across the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. In the research undertaken for this study, it appears that most crisis-specific issues are cross-sectoral, therefore requiring cross-sectoral responses. The intended audience for this report includes national government stakeholders involved in infrastructure financing, including Ministries in charge of infrastructure, especially transport, energy, and water; state-owned enterprises with operational responsibilities, such as road directorates; and Ministries of Finance and development banks involved in PPP. This report reviewed the region's experience in PPPs in infrastructure before and during the financial crisis period (from late 2006 to 2010). Since not all ECA countries have had successful or ongoing PPP projects during this time, the report draws on lessons from Brazil, India, Spain, and the United Kingdom, countries with established PPP project pipelines to draw on cross-sectoral lessons. The findings can be used by countries wishing to start or re-start their PPP program following the impact of the recent crisis. However, beyond the crisis and its effects, the report can also guide future development of sustainable and crisis-resilient PPP programs. Most of the analysis supporting the report recommendations was undertaken for the highway sector and was financed through from a grant from the transport research support program. Initially, the highway sector was the focus of this study but the scope was later widened to include all infrastructure sectors because most issues facing highway PPP projects are common to other sectors requiring a cross-sectoral approach to PPP. Sector-specific strategies for highways have been documented in a recent World Bank study.Publication Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011(Washington, DC, 2011-03)Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.Publication Public-Private Partnerships in Transport(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12)This paper summarizes the evidence on the evolution of transport PPPs over the last 15 years or so. In the process, it provides a primer on the associated policy issues, including of the central role of project finance in the implementation of PPP policies and the debates on risk allocation in the design of PPPs. The paper also offers a discussion of the increasingly well recognized residual roles for the public sector in transport, with an emphasis on the regulatory debates surrounding the adoption of PPPs.Publication Togo - Reviving the Traditional Sectors and Preparing for the Future : An Export-Led Growth Strategy - Country Economic Memorandum(World Bank, 2010-09-01)Togo is one of the smallest countries in mainland Africa, with an area of 57,000 kPublication Uruguay Policy Notes : Challenges and Opportunities 2010-2015(Washington, DC, 2010-06-22)The policy notes have two objectives: (i) to present the incoming government team with a menu of policy options in areas where the World Bank has local and international experience; and (ii) to provide a framework for the dialogue between the new governments and the World Bank on the new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS). As such, the discussion of these notes with the authorities was also an opportunity to undertake preliminary consultations on the Bank's support to Uruguay for 2010-2015. The themes of the notes were selected by the outgoing authorities based on ongoing and completed World Bank work, and they prioritize areas where Bank cooperation would add the most value. Uruguay's economy is small, but it has many strengths and high potential for growth and social development. The country has a long democratic tradition, a political system characterized by clear rules of the game and governability, and solid institutions at all levels. Uruguay is one of the most equitable countries in Latin America and enjoys a social peace notable in the region. Good macroeconomic management following the 2002 crisis has reduced country vulnerabilities and strengthened confidence in its institutions. These characteristics are very valuable assets for promoting foreign and domestic investment, essential to sustain the high growth achieved in recent years. Another asset is the high coverage of the education system, although education quality has recently become a challenge.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Changing the Face of the Waters : The Promise and Challenge of Sustainable Aquaculture(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)This study provides strategic orientations and recommendations for Bank client countries and suggests approaches for the Bank's role in a rapidly changing industry with high economic potential. It identifies priorities and options for policy adjustments, catalytic investments, and entry points for the Bank and other investors to foster environmentally friendly, wealth-creating, and sustainable aquaculture. The objectives of the study are to inform and provide guidance on sustainable aquaculture to decision makers in the international development community and in client countries of international finance institutions. The study focuses on several critical issues and challenges: 1) Harnessing the contribution of aquaculture to economic development, including poverty alleviation and wealth creation, to employment and to food security and trade, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs); 2) Building environmentally sustainable aquaculture, including the role of aquaculture in the broader suite of environmental management measures; 3) Creating the enabling conditions for sustainable aquaculture, including the governance, policy, and regulatory frameworks, and identifying the roles of the public and private sectors; and 4) Developing and transferring human and institutional capacity in governance, technologies, and business models with special reference to the application of lessons from Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.Publication Early Child Development, From Measurement to Action : A priority for Growth and Equity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)The World Bank recently hosted a symposium on the priority of early child development (ECD) for economic growth and equity. The participants urged application of population-based tools and measures to assess the outcomes of children's early years and children's readiness for school. This study is derived from the symposium and is a valuable resource for policy makers, economists, donors, and investors, as well as researchers and practitioners in early child development. It summarizes the current neuroscience on early child development and major longitudinal studies, the rationale and urgency for greater investment, and countries' innovative funding strategies. The report consists of 15 chapters authored by ECD experts and leaders in the field. The chapters are grouped into five main parts relating to the: business imperative and societal benefits of ECD investments; lessons from evaluation of longitudinal ECD interventions; countries' experiences in monitoring ECD interventions; innovative approaches to countries' financing of ECD initiatives; and next steps on the ECD agenda for the next 5 years. A theme highlighted at the symposium and enlarged upon here is the urgent need for evidence- and population-based instruments and measures to monitor, evaluate, and compare ECD interventions over time and across settings.Publication Making Monitoring and Evaluation Systems Work : A Capacity Development Toolkit(World Bank, 2009)There are constant and growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to demands from internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are all among stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and results have grown, there is an accompanying need for useful and useable results-based monitoring and evaluation systems to support the management of policies, programs, and projects. Governments and other organizations have many different kinds of tracking systems as part of their management toolkits: good human resource systems, financial systems, and accountability systems. They also need good feedback systems. A results-based monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system is essentially such a feedback system; it is a management tool to measure and evaluate outcomes, providing information for governance and decision making. Many management systems have been missing a feedback component to enable them to track the consequences of actions. Building an M&E system gives decision-makers an additional management tool by providing feedback on performance as a basis for future improvement.Publication Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-07-15)Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change either by the incidences of extreme weather events or by variation in temperature or rainfall. A few studies have found that formal and informal institutions as well as policies also affect migration. Institutions that make government more responsive to households (for example through public spending) discourage both international and domestic migration in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Migration is often an option of last resort after vulnerable rural populations attempting to cope with new and challenging circumstances have exhausted other options such as eating less, selling assets, or removing children from school. This study is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. The surveys were administered by in-country partners to a randomly selected set of 800 households per country. It is also important to emphasize that neither the household survey results nor the findings from the qualitative focus groups are meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried, since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. This report is organized as follows: section one gives synthesis. Section two discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section three focuses on migration as a coping mechanisms and income diversification strategy. Section four examines other coping and adaptation strategies. Section five discusses perceptions about government and community programs.Publication Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-04-06)This book focuses on maternal conditions, childhood illness, and malnutrition. Specifically, the chapters address acute illness and undernutrition in children, principally under age 5. It also covers maternal mortality, morbidity, stillbirth, and influences to pregnancy and pre-pregnancy. It also includes the transition to older childhood, in particular, the overlap and commonality with the child development volume.