Publication: Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011: Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall
Loading...
Published
2011-03
ISSN
Date
2017-06-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2011. Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011: Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27251 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication India Development Update, October 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-10)Growth rebounded significantly due to strong industrial recovery aided by growth in investment and exports. Capital flows are back, signaling growing investor confidence, as inflation has moderated from double digits, exchange rate has stabilized, and financial sector stress has plateaued. Monetary policy continuity has been maintained and there has been some progress on fiscal consolidation. With the economy still below potential and reform momentum picking up, growth is expected to strengthen over the medium-term. Inflation is expected to decline with monetary policy switching to inflation targeting while the current account deficit is expected to widen somewhat as import demand and capital inflows rise. Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue through stronger revenue mobilization. Downside domestic risks can be offset through accelerated structural reforms.Publication Russian Economic Report, No. 28, Autumn 2012(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10)Early in the year, as the global economy was slowing and the euro area entered a recession, Russia's economy held steady. But now, as 2012 is entering its final quarter, growth is slowing. Just at a time when Russia's output levels have exceeded the pre-crisis peak, the economy is settling onto a lower trajectory, even though oil prices have stayed high. But let us start with the strong points. The economy had a good first half of the year. While growth was stalling in Europe and slowing in other emerging economies, it remained steady in Russia. Key economic indicators were near or at record levels: the current account surplus stayed high and the Central Bank of Russia added to its reserves, helping to bolster market confidence. Capital outflows, long regarded as one of the soft spots of Russia's economy, declined in the second and third quarters of 2012 from the peaks in the previous two quarters. Whereas many countries in Europe are struggling with large public debt and high fiscal deficits, Russia's federal government public debt is close to single digit and the fiscal balance is in surplus. Inflation and unemployment rates declined to their lowest level in two decades. As people's purchasing power improved and more people had jobs, fewer people were in poverty than at any time since the beginning of the economic transition. A challenging external environment and worsening sentiments among businesses and consumers translate into weak growth prospects. Excluding the crisis years of 1998 and 2009, growth in 2012 is set to decline to its lowest rate in a decade and a half. And 2013 is unlikely to look much better. The weak outlook means that strong, three-pronged policy action is essential to reinvigorate the economy. First, economic policies have to ensure stability. The recent tightening in monetary policy was an important step in this direction. Second, Russia has to build buffers against the external volatility. This means replenishing the reserve fund, moving towards inflation targeting and strengthening banking supervision. Finally, the government has to lift the growth potential of the economy. This means raising productivity and competitiveness, diversifying the economy, and improving transport connectivity, as discussed in the last section of this report, in line with its longer-term economic policy goals. Making headway on this agenda will enable Russia to lift growth above 4 percent and more.Publication Public-Private Partnerships in Transport(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12)This paper summarizes the evidence on the evolution of transport PPPs over the last 15 years or so. In the process, it provides a primer on the associated policy issues, including of the central role of project finance in the implementation of PPP policies and the debates on risk allocation in the design of PPPs. The paper also offers a discussion of the increasingly well recognized residual roles for the public sector in transport, with an emphasis on the regulatory debates surrounding the adoption of PPPs.Publication Public-Private Partnerships in Europe and Central Asia : Designing Crisis-Resilient Strategies and Bankable Projects(World Bank, 2011-02-24)This study aims to help governments design sustainable Public-Private Partnership (PPP) strategies and projects in the context of the changed circumstances brought on by the global financial and economic crisis that began in the fall of 2008. The study analyses the impact and implication of the crisis on PPP infrastructure projects across the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. In the research undertaken for this study, it appears that most crisis-specific issues are cross-sectoral, therefore requiring cross-sectoral responses. The intended audience for this report includes national government stakeholders involved in infrastructure financing, including Ministries in charge of infrastructure, especially transport, energy, and water; state-owned enterprises with operational responsibilities, such as road directorates; and Ministries of Finance and development banks involved in PPP. This report reviewed the region's experience in PPPs in infrastructure before and during the financial crisis period (from late 2006 to 2010). Since not all ECA countries have had successful or ongoing PPP projects during this time, the report draws on lessons from Brazil, India, Spain, and the United Kingdom, countries with established PPP project pipelines to draw on cross-sectoral lessons. The findings can be used by countries wishing to start or re-start their PPP program following the impact of the recent crisis. However, beyond the crisis and its effects, the report can also guide future development of sustainable and crisis-resilient PPP programs. Most of the analysis supporting the report recommendations was undertaken for the highway sector and was financed through from a grant from the transport research support program. Initially, the highway sector was the focus of this study but the scope was later widened to include all infrastructure sectors because most issues facing highway PPP projects are common to other sectors requiring a cross-sectoral approach to PPP. Sector-specific strategies for highways have been documented in a recent World Bank study.Publication Beyond Keynesianism : Global Infrastructure Investments in Times of Crisis(2012-01-01)As the world recovers only slowly from the 2008 financial crisis and Europe is facing a looming debt crisis, concerns have increased that the "new normal" -- a period of high unemployment, low returns on investment, high risks, and low growth -- may become protracted in advanced economies. If growth remains weak, unemployment rates and debt levels will be slow to recede. Consequently, the global recovery may continue to be fragile for years to come. What the world needs now is a growth-lifting strategy. This strategy could take the form of a global infrastructure initiative. Since debt levels are high, governments in the United States and Europe could increase demand and support growth through investments in bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects that are self-financing. An infrastructure initiative should, however, go beyond the borders of advanced countries and include developing countries. Economic and social returns to infrastructure investments tend to be high in developing countries, which have become increasingly important drivers of global growth. At the same time, infrastructure investments require capital goods, most of which are produced in high-income countries. Scaling up infrastructure investment in developing countries could therefore help generate a virtuous cycle in support of a global recovery.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2022(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10)This brief focuses on the economic development in Vietnam as of October 2022. Vietnam’s economy registered a strong growth of 13.7 percent (y/y) in Q3-2022 and 8.9 percent (y/y), mostly reflecting a low base effect. Industrial production and retail sales posted another month of high growth rates (13.0 percent (y/y) and 36.1 percent (y/y)), which could be attributed both to strong economic activities and to the low-base effects. Both exports and imports growth moderated in September 2022 due to weakening demand from major export markets. FDI commitment fell in September affected by the heighted uncertainty about the global economic prospects while FDI disbursement continued to improve. While the economic recovery has remained strong, heightened uncertainties related to the slowing global economy, rising domestic inflation, and tightening global financial conditions warrant increased vigilance and policy agility. Given the economy has not fully recovered and growth in main export markets is expected to slow, continued active fiscal policy to support the economy should be closely aligned with economic outcomes and coordinated with monetary policy. At the same time, as CPI and Core CPI are reaching 4 percent, the policy rate set by the authorities, monetary authorities should be ready to considerfurther tightening of monetary policy to ensure inflation remains anchored. Given the end of forbearance and tightening financial conditions, the financial sector faces heightened risks and prompt SBV guidance would help stem materialization of such risks at the sector level, potentially affecting the real economy. The recent turmoil around the Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) case highlights the need for increased transparency through timely publication of detailed information about the banking sector performance, an enhanced corporate governance, a strengthened risk-based supervision, including supervision of business groups and related party lending and early intervention, and an enhanced bank resolution framework.Publication Republic of Tunisia : Water and Sanitation Strategy(Washington, DC, 2009-04-01)This strategy is a comprehensive overview of the institutional, organizational, and economic aspects of the sector. Based on an analysis of the current situation, this strategy will examine the strengths and weaknesses of the sector and review reform options of reform that address upcoming challenges and provide the highest level of service at the lowest possible cost for urban and rural beneficiaries, while guaranteeing the widest and most sustainable service coverage. The Tunisian economy's strong growth during the past four decades, at over 5 percent per annum, enabled the government to mobilize substantial internal and external resources to finance sector investments. The increase in public revenue parallel to this growth was also instrumental in ensuring sustainable project funding. Moreover, this economic growth greatly stimulated household incomes, thus access to water supply and sanitation services. The objective of these studies and other related projects is to mobilize the potential in variable surface water as well as in fragile groundwater resources, in order to satisfy fast-growing water needs while limiting the negative effect of pollution, and ensuring water resources sustainability. The studies and programs were carried out within the framework of a larger regional master plan (for the North, Central, and South regions), mobilizing the various hydraulic systems in order to satisfy the need for drinking water in major urban and rural areas, as per the water code, as well as the tourist, agricultural, and industrial sectors.Publication National Health Accounts Data from 1996 to 2010(World Health Organization, 2015-08)We downloaded country-generated NHA reports from the World Health Organization global health expenditure database and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) StatExtract website. We also obtained reports from Abt Associates, through contacts in individual countries and through an online search. We compiled data in the four main types used in these reports: (i) financing source; (ii) financing agent; (iii) health function; and (iv) health provider. We combined and adjusted data to conform with OECD’s first edition of A system of health accounts manual, (2000).Publication Drivers and Obstacles to Banking SMEs : The Role of Competition and the Institutional Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-12)This paper studies the factors banks perceive as drivers and obstacles to financing small and medium enterprises (SMEs), focusing on the role of competition and the institutional framework. Using a survey of banks in Argentina and Chile, the paper shows that, despite alleged differences in the countries' environments regarding rules, regulations, and ease of doing business, SMEs have become a strategic segment for most banks in both countries. In particular, banks have begun to target SMEs due to the significant competition in the corporate and retail sectors. They perceive the SMEs market as highly profitable, large, and with good prospects. Moreover, banks are developing coping mechanisms to overcome the particular institutional obstacles present in each country and to compete for SMEs. Banks' interest in SMEs is not based on government programs, yet policy action might help reduce the cost of providing financing, especially long-term lending.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.