Publication: A Novel Tobacco Market Diversification: Unsmoking Rich Countries while Smoking Low-and-Middle Income Countries
Loading...
Date
2022-04-27
ISSN
Published
2022-04-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
In this working paper, an exploration of available data and information is conducted and findings presented, to support the view that the dichotomous business model and related harm reduction narrative promoted nowadays by the tobacco industry, merits scrutiny by the international community. The promotion of e-cigarettes as welfare enhancing in rich countries, particularly because they are posited to help adult smokers quit, tends to obfuscate a dire reality. The same tobacco industry that promotes (e-cigarettes as harm reduction in rich countries, derives the bulk of its profits by selling cigarettes in lower income countries.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Marquez, Patricio V.. 2022. A Novel Tobacco Market Diversification: Unsmoking Rich Countries while Smoking Low-and-Middle Income Countries. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37490 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Environmental Implications of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-07)Two-thirds of central banks in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have started researching or testing the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). At the same time, the region accounts for one-third of world CO2 emissions and is vulnerable to climate risks. As the Group of 7 (G7), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE) have stated in their public statements, it is increasingly important to consider environmental impact when designing CBDC. However, only a few brief studies have been done on this subject, which will be crucial for the region. This Note explores the environmental implications of CBDC by comparing technical mechanisms and energy consumption within its distributed structure. It also illustrates differences in ecological footprint between CBDC and other payment methods (cryptocurrency, cash, and card networks). As the legitimacy of CBDC is backed by the trust of central banks, CBDC does not need to prove its legitimacy through its technological structure. Therefore, CBDC does not require the energy-intensive consensus or mining mechanisms used by a cryptocurrency, so its energy consumption is lower (comparable to that of a credit card system). CBDC can be designed to use various systems, such as Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS), Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), or a mixture of both. Careful deliberation to meet the objectives and implications will be important as CBDC can be a catalyst for financial innovation.Publication Sustainable Cities Towards A Green, Resilient and Inclusive Recovery(Washington, DC, 2022-03)Cities are key to unlocking a climate-smart future for all, as they account for more than 50 percent of the global population, about 70 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions and 80 percent of global GDP. Urban centers’ share of emissions is expected to grow as the urban population is projected to increase by 2.3 billion people by 20502. As the world recovers from the COVID-19 crisis, cities will present a huge opportunity to rebuild in a way that is climate friendly and meets some of the world’s ambitious climate targets. Cities are viewed as the source of and the solution to many of today's economic, social, and environmental challenges. This is not only because of the concentration of population and economic assets in urban areas, but also because local authorities perform key functions that impact the quality of life of their residents. From an urban management perspective, the leading resource and knowledge sharing platform is the GEF funded Global Platform for Sustainable Cities (GPSC), hosted by the World Bank. The GPSC states that achieving sustainability requires the balanced accomplishment of outcomes against four pillars, namely (1) robust economic growth, prosperity, and competitiveness across all parts of the city; (2) protection and conservation of ecosystems and natural resources into perpetuity; (3) mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while fostering overall city resilience; and (4) inclusiveness and livability, mainly through the reduction of city poverty levels and inequality. The Urban Sustainability Framework (USF), developed to outline the areas of work and support by the GPSC, offers a very useful representation of both outcomes as well as enabling actions and requirements (such as spatial data and good governance) cities could focus on.Publication Structured Lesson Plans for Literacy Instruction(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-03-31)Literacy is the cornerstone of education, and a driver of human economic, social, and civic wellbeing. Despite its importance, far too many children fail to become literate. The World Bank uses a measure called learning poverty to indicate when a child cannot read and understand an age-appropriate text by age ten. The best available data showed that more than two-thirds of children in low- and middle-income countries suffer learning poverty. The World Bank is committed to helping countries achieve the learning target: to cut learning poverty by at least half by 2030. Achieving better outcomes in literacy requires a comprehensive effort in many domains. One of the most important is ensuring that students and teachers have and use high-quality instructional materials, especially textbooks, for reading instruction. As countries and systems review their literacy teaching and learning materials, they will want to compare them to the materials from other countries and systems. The purpose of the compendium is to allow such reviews and comparisons by grouping a critical mass of structured pedagogy lesson plans and related materials in one place.Publication WBG COVID-19 Crisis Response Operational Update(Washington, DC, 2022-03-31)This note provides an update on the WBG’s COVID-19 Crisis Response, outlined in June 2020 to help developing countries address the impacts of the pandemic while maintaining a line of sight to long-term development goals. It comprises five short sections: (I) the impacts of COVID-19 and compounding crises on developing countries, (II) an update on the WBG’s operational crisis response and priorities moving forward, (III) the critical role of international coordination, (IV) WBG financing framework for GRID, and (V) concluding remarks.Publication Assessing Incentives to Increase Digital Payment Acceptance and Usage(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-18)An important step to achieve greater financial inclusion is to increase the acceptance and usage of digital payments. Although consumer adoption of digital payments has improved dramatically globally, the acceptance and usage of digital payments for micro, small, and medium-sized retailers (MSMRs) remain challenging. Using random forest estimation, The authors identify 14 key predictors out of 190 variables with the largest predictive power for MSMR adoption and usage of digital payments. Using conditional inference trees, they study the importance of sequencing and interactions of various factors such as public policy initiatives, technological advancements, and private sector incentives. The authors find that in countries with low point of sale (POS) terminal adoption, killer applications such as mobile phone payment apps increase the likelihood of P2B digital transactions. They also find the likelihood of digital P2B payments at MSMRs increases when MSMRs pay their employees and suppliers digitally. The level of ownership of basic financial accounts by consumers and the size of the shadow economy are also important predictors of greater adoption and usage of digital payments. Using causal forest estimation, they find a positive and economically significant marginal effect for merchant and consumer fiscal incentives on POS terminal adoption on average. When countries implement financial inclusion initiatives, POS terminal adoption increases significantly and MSMRs’ share of person-to-business (P2B) digital payments also increases. Merchant and consumer fiscal incentives also increase MSMRs’ share of P2B electronic payments.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Tobacco Control in Brazil(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-08)The objective of this study was to assess the smoking situation in Brazil, and the role of the tobacco control program, and compare it to experience in other countries. The study assessed key trends in smoking rates and lung cancer in Brazil, and reviewed price and non-price interventions. A discussion of fiscal instruments and smuggling is also included in this report. This study aimed at further evaluating the smoking situation in Brazil, the role of the tobacco control program in the country, and compares it to global best practice and experience in other countries. The study report is structured into three main parts: in the first chapter, trends in smoking prevalence, consumption, and cigarette expenditures in Brazil are reviewed, including the illegal market; in the second chapter, trends in lung cancer mortality and health care costs of smoking-related diseases in the country are analyzed; in the third chapter, non-price and price interventions are reviewed, including those taken by the Brazil tobacco control program, as well as the impact increases in cigarette prices and taxes would have on smoking prevalence and tax revenue. The report concludes with recommendations for further action to protect the Brazilian population from premature death and disease caused by smoking, and to reverse the negative impact of smoking on public expenditures.Publication Economics of Tobacco Toolkit, Tool 6 : Equity Issues, Tobacco, and the Poor(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013)Currently there are approximately 4 million tobacco related deaths annually. If present trends continue, by the year 2030 the number of deaths will soar to about 10 million annual deaths, with 7 million in low-income countries. However, government action to establish various tobacco control initiatives can prevent this from happening and save a significant number of lives. Tobacco control measures include: i) raising tobacco prices by imposing higher excise taxes; ii) advertising and marketing bans and restrictions; and iii) clean indoor air provisions. A popular and valid concern holds that raising tobacco excise taxes for the purposes of tobacco control imposes an untenable and unfair burden on the poor. In short, it is argued that higher tobacco excise taxes increase inequality in the post-tax distribution of income and reduces the real incomes of a particularly vulnerable group, the poor. This tool discusses a number of approaches in which to examine the validity of this argument. Techniques to analyze the impact of tobacco consumption and tobacco taxes on the poor are explained. And analytical methods using country-specific data are examined so that policy analysts can effectively address concerns about the poor, tobacco consumption, and tobacco control policies.Publication Progression of Tobacco Control Policies : Lessons from the United States and Implications for Global Action(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-05)This paper examines the historical experience of tobacco control in the last five decades and shares important lessons of public health interventions to inform current and future tobacco control programs in other countries. The paper is divided into four parts. The first part gives an overview of the political economy, principal influences and interventions in tobacco control in the United States. It stresses the importance of information shocks and the role played by grassroots organizations. The current situation of tobacco control in the United States is further discussed in the second part, with emphasis on the economic case that led to litigation, as well as the response of the industry and the States. The third part focuses on the present efforts of multilaterals like the World Bank, technical United Nation (UN) agencies such as the World Health Organization, in the context of the new global governance structure: the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The last section discusses lessons learned and provides recommendations for comprehensive tobacco control programs.Publication The Effects of Tobacco Taxes on Health : An Analysis of the Effects by Income Quintile and Gender in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-10)The main objectives of this paper are to estimate the burden of tobacco-caused mortality as a whole and by main tobacco-related diseases in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, and to assess the distributional health impact of an increase in tobacco taxation in these three countries. According to the results obtained, in 2012 smoking caused around 310,000 deaths in Russia, about 70,000 in Ukraine, and 14,300 in Kazakhstan, representing a key factor of mortality among the working-age population. Using data from various sources, the paper estimates the distributional consequences of a hypothetical tax rise in the three countries that leads to an approximately 30 percent increase of the average retail price of cigarettes. The analysis includes an estimation of changes in smoking prevalence, mortality, life expectancy, and public health expenditures by income quintile and gender. Considered excise growth can lead to about 3.5 to 4.0 percent fall in smoking prevalence, which in turn can avert about 600,000 tobacco-related deaths in Russia, 140,000 in Ukraine, and 30,000 in Kazakhstan over a 50 years period. Reduced tobacco-related morbidity will also result in substantial decrease in health expenditures for the treatment of tobacco-related diseases. Positive health effects are expected to be pro-poor, as almost 60 percent of the reduction in mortality is concentrated in the two lower-income quintiles of the population of the three countries.Publication Economics of Tobacco Toolkit, Tool 3 : Economic Analysis of Tobacco Demand(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013)The tobacco epidemic is a worldwide phenomenon with significantly destructive effects on developing, transitional, and industrialized nations. The first scientific evidence on the health consequences of tobacco consumption-specifically, smoking-was discovered in industrialized nations. As a result, the economic analysis of tobacco control issues began and was developed in these countries. This tool attempts to explain the process of analysis of demand for tobacco products as simply as possible. It includes discussions of basic economic and analysis principles (written for non-specialists such as policy makers and analysts) and more advanced technical points (intended for use by the economists and econometricians who will undertake the actual demand analysis). Consumption of tobacco products includes both smoked categories (e.g., cigarettes, hand-rolled tobacco, pipe tobacco, cigars, bidis, kreteks, etc.) and smokeless types (such as snuff and chewing tobacco). In industrialized countries, cigarettes disproportionately influence tobacco epidemics. This tool discusses and presents, in technical detail, each of the steps necessary to conduct an economic demand analysis on tobacco products. In addition, the reader is presented the fundamentals of demand analysis, including its purpose, assumptions, and requirements. In turn, the reasons to intervene in the market for tobacco products stem from the destructive nature of tobacco consumption. Smoking is the single largest preventable cause of premature death in industrialized countries. In economic terms, the principle of consumer sovereignty holds that individuals know what products are in their best interests to consume. Provided consumers know the risks concerned and internalize all the costs and benefits involved, private consumption decisions result in the most efficient allocation of society's scarce resources. Tobacco products are available to consumers for a price, and an issue of great interest to tobacco control advocates (and the tobacco industry) is to what extent are consumers willing to buy those tobacco products. For instance, the willingness to buy is strongly influenced by such characteristics as the consumer's sense of value, income level, and taste.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06)Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.