Publication: Assessing Incentives to Increase Digital Payment Acceptance and Usage: A Machine Learning Approach
Loading...
Published
2022-01-18
ISSN
Date
2022-05-31
Editor(s)
Abstract
An important step to achieve greater financial inclusion is to increase the acceptance and usage of digital payments. Although consumer adoption of digital payments has improved dramatically globally, the acceptance and usage of digital payments for micro, small, and medium-sized retailers (MSMRs) remain challenging. Using random forest estimation, The authors identify 14 key predictors out of 190 variables with the largest predictive power for MSMR adoption and usage of digital payments. Using conditional inference trees, they study the importance of sequencing and interactions of various factors such as public policy initiatives, technological advancements, and private sector incentives. The authors find that in countries with low point of sale (POS) terminal adoption, killer applications such as mobile phone payment apps increase the likelihood of P2B digital transactions. They also find the likelihood of digital P2B payments at MSMRs increases when MSMRs pay their employees and suppliers digitally. The level of ownership of basic financial accounts by consumers and the size of the shadow economy are also important predictors of greater adoption and usage of digital payments. Using causal forest estimation, they find a positive and economically significant marginal effect for merchant and consumer fiscal incentives on POS terminal adoption on average. When countries implement financial inclusion initiatives, POS terminal adoption increases significantly and MSMRs’ share of person-to-business (P2B) digital payments also increases. Merchant and consumer fiscal incentives also increase MSMRs’ share of P2B electronic payments.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Allen, Jeff; Carbo Valverde, Santiago; Chakravorti, Sujit; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Francisco; Pinar Ardic, Oya. 2022. Assessing Incentives to Increase Digital Payment Acceptance and Usage: A Machine Learning Approach. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37487 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Environmental Implications of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-07)Two-thirds of central banks in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have started researching or testing the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). At the same time, the region accounts for one-third of world CO2 emissions and is vulnerable to climate risks. As the Group of 7 (G7), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE) have stated in their public statements, it is increasingly important to consider environmental impact when designing CBDC. However, only a few brief studies have been done on this subject, which will be crucial for the region. This Note explores the environmental implications of CBDC by comparing technical mechanisms and energy consumption within its distributed structure. It also illustrates differences in ecological footprint between CBDC and other payment methods (cryptocurrency, cash, and card networks). As the legitimacy of CBDC is backed by the trust of central banks, CBDC does not need to prove its legitimacy through its technological structure. Therefore, CBDC does not require the energy-intensive consensus or mining mechanisms used by a cryptocurrency, so its energy consumption is lower (comparable to that of a credit card system). CBDC can be designed to use various systems, such as Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS), Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), or a mixture of both. Careful deliberation to meet the objectives and implications will be important as CBDC can be a catalyst for financial innovation.Publication Sustainable Cities Towards A Green, Resilient and Inclusive Recovery(Washington, DC, 2022-03)Cities are key to unlocking a climate-smart future for all, as they account for more than 50 percent of the global population, about 70 percent of global energy-related CO2 emissions and 80 percent of global GDP. Urban centers’ share of emissions is expected to grow as the urban population is projected to increase by 2.3 billion people by 20502. As the world recovers from the COVID-19 crisis, cities will present a huge opportunity to rebuild in a way that is climate friendly and meets some of the world’s ambitious climate targets. Cities are viewed as the source of and the solution to many of today's economic, social, and environmental challenges. This is not only because of the concentration of population and economic assets in urban areas, but also because local authorities perform key functions that impact the quality of life of their residents. From an urban management perspective, the leading resource and knowledge sharing platform is the GEF funded Global Platform for Sustainable Cities (GPSC), hosted by the World Bank. The GPSC states that achieving sustainability requires the balanced accomplishment of outcomes against four pillars, namely (1) robust economic growth, prosperity, and competitiveness across all parts of the city; (2) protection and conservation of ecosystems and natural resources into perpetuity; (3) mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while fostering overall city resilience; and (4) inclusiveness and livability, mainly through the reduction of city poverty levels and inequality. The Urban Sustainability Framework (USF), developed to outline the areas of work and support by the GPSC, offers a very useful representation of both outcomes as well as enabling actions and requirements (such as spatial data and good governance) cities could focus on.Publication Assessment of the Labor Market Information System (LMIS) in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic PDR(Washington, DC, 2022)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) has made substantial progress in poverty reduction even though its resource-based development pattern has historically limited the impact of growth on poverty reduction. The objective of the assessment is to support the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (MOLSW) in their planned reforms of labor market institutions and systems in Lao; in particular by supporting investments in a comprehensive Labor Market Information System (LMIS) for improved jobseeker data collection and analytics, jobseeker profiling, and assignment to various employment support programs such as vocational trainings and job search assistance. The target audience of this report is the technical staff and management at the department levels as well as the policy makers at the MOLSW, Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) as well as the Ministry of Finance (MOF).Publication Greening Digital in Korea(Washington, DC, 2022-02)Digital technologies are making a significant impact on societies, economies, and the physical world, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the green agenda. Applications of these technologies in sectors such as energy, urban, transport, and agriculture are creating new possibilities for climate change mitigation strategies. However, the rapid expansion of digital technologies increases energy usage too, and is therefore also increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In seeking to address these challenges, the World Bank’s Digital Development Global Practice (DD) will publish a flagship report on Digital Development Opportunities for Climate Change, which will assess opportunities for greening with information communication technology (ICT), as well as opportunities for greening the ICT sector itself. To inspire and inform this flagship report, DD studied Korea’s experience in greening its ICT sector, with support from the Korean Green Growth Trust Fund. The Republic of Korea was selected for the case study due to its experience in both the digital and green sectors, and its status as a globally recognized ICT powerhouse. The country was also an early adopter of a green policy agenda, and is integrating DNA (data, network, and AI) into these policies. The government announced a national policy vision of “Low Carbon, Green Growth” in 2008 and has taken concrete steps to build a solid foundation for the green transition, through legislation, standardization, information-based instruments, economic instruments, research and development (R&D), and green procurement. More recently, the country has been aligning its green ICT strategy with the broader national GHG reduction target. Korea's experience can offer meaningful lessons to other countries looking to reduce the ICT sector’s climate impact. It shows that public policies have an important impact on the ICT market. The policy tools that can spur decarbonization of the ICT sector include green government procurement, information-based instruments, economic instruments, and provision of guidelines on green business practices. Keys to success in applying such tools include strong and early political commitment; long-term planning and comprehensive policies; prioritization; research and development (R&D) and investment; and a governance structure that allows a whole-of-government approach. Additionally, Korea’s experience shows that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in reducing GHG emissions from the energy-intensive ICT industry. Korea’s experience also underscores the fact that more evidence and analysis are needed to measure and determine the effectiveness of policy and regulatory pathways for greening the ICT sector.Publication A Novel Tobacco Market Diversification(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-04-27)In this working paper, an exploration of available data and information is conducted and findings presented, to support the view that the dichotomous business model and related harm reduction narrative promoted nowadays by the tobacco industry, merits scrutiny by the international community. The promotion of e-cigarettes as welfare enhancing in rich countries, particularly because they are posited to help adult smokers quit, tends to obfuscate a dire reality. The same tobacco industry that promotes (e-cigarettes as harm reduction in rich countries, derives the bulk of its profits by selling cigarettes in lower income countries.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Consumer Protection Laws and Regulations in Deposit and Loan Services : A Cross-Country Analysis with a New Data Set(2011-01-01)Consumer protection and financial literacy can contribute to improved efficiency, transparency, competition, and access in retail financial markets by reducing information asymmetries and power imbalances between providers and users of financial services. Financial consumer protection has gained significance in policy debates, especially since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. This paper presents the results of a survey on consumer protection regulations in 142 countries. The findings indicate that although consumer protection legislation is in place in the majority of countries, these do not necessarily address the issues specific to financial services. There is some evidence that enforcement powers and monitoring capacity are limited in many countries, obstructing the effective implementation of the existing regulations. Furthermore, independent third party dispute resolution mechanisms are not widespread. The paper also compiles comprehensive information on laws and regulations relevant for consumer protection and discusses a number of challenges related to empirical analyses of financial consumer protection to enable cross-country comparison.Publication Financial Sector Assessment Program : Saudi Arabia - CPSS Core Principles for Systematically Important Payment Systems(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09)The present document is the assessment of the systemically important payment systems in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) based on the CPSS Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems (CPSIPS). The document also contains an analysis of some developmental issues related to the reform of the payments system as a whole. The assessment was conducted in the context of the field mission of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update to the KSA (April 2011). The assessor of the CPSIPS was Massimo Cirasino. The national payments system (NPS) in Saudi Arabia efficiently serves the needs of a broad set of users. In particular, SAMA has implemented a comprehensive and robust infrastructure to support the provision of payment services and products by commercial banks. The infrastructure is primarily concentrated on payments in riyals and comprises the following systems: (i) the Saudi Arabian Riyal Interbank Express (SARIE) real time gross settlement (RTGS) system, which processes a wide range of large-value and small-value payments and provides settlement facilities for a number of clearing systems, as well as for transactions executed at the Tadawul stock exchange; (ii) the check clearing houses operated at SAMA branches; (iii) automated teller machine (ATM) and point-of-sale services provided through Saudi payments network; (iv) electronic bill presentment and payment processed by the national electronic bill presentment and payment service; (v) the Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) which provides advanced security facilities; and (vi) the SAMA Joint Network (SJN) providing a highly secured communications network. The NPS in Saudi Arabia is characterized by a high level of standardization.Publication Closing the Credit Gap for Formal and Informal Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises(International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC, 2013-08)Job creation and economic growth through private sector development have become primary areas of focus for policy makers around the world in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Recent evidence points to the importance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in providing employment across countries. In addition to employing the largest number of people in aggregate, SMEs generate the most new jobs. But SMEs also face many challenges in day-to-day operations and to grow. This note is a report back on the state of the credit gap for MSMEs with this new and updated data, while providing additional focus on the sizable informal enterprise sector in the developing world. In addition, this report examines various operational challenges that small and informal firms face, and some formalization obstacles they often cite as the primary reasons for not registering their business. A framework to differentiate the informal sector is offered, with the intention of segmenting the vast landscape of informal firms some of which exist today due to opportunistic behavior, while others are just trying to survive and to better design specific interventions depending on the stage of development and the willingness of the firm to register its business. The rest of this report is organized as follows. Section I focuses on the credit gap for formal MSMEs, and offers some innovative models and interventions that can be used to more fully meet the financial and non-financial needs of formal MSMEs. Section II focuses exclusively on informal enterprises, and goes beyond the access to finance paradigm, describing the operational challenges faced by informal firms, reviewing the experiments that have tried to induce higher rates of formalization, and looking at a series of private sector models that if combined, could more fully meet the needs of informal firms.Publication Digital Public Infrastructure and Development(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-11)DPI is an approach to digitalization focused on creating “foundational, digital building blocks designed for the public benefit.” By providing essential digital functions at society scale that can be reused across sectors, DPIs enable public and private service providers to build on these systems, innovate, and roll out new services more quickly and efficiently. Common systems built as DPIs include digital identity and electronic signatures, digital payments, and data sharing. However, to provide DPI functionality, these systems must embed principles such as inclusion, openness, modularity, inclusivity, user-centricity, privacy-by-design, and strong governance. This paper provides a common framework and primer on DPI for policymakers, practitioners, WBG staff, and the broader development community, including: • DPI Concepts and Theory of Change: This includes a working definition of DPI and its core characteristics, including the role of the private sector, how DPI differs from past approaches to digitalization, and the relationship between core DPI systems, sector-specific systems, other digital technologies, and broader ecosystem enablers and safeguards. The paper also articulates the potential benefits of DPI across a range of public and private sector services, as well as risks and challenges for implementation and adoption. • Considerations for Implementation: Drawing on the experiences of a diverse set of countries across different regions, income levels, and DPI approaches, the paper identifies common trends for building, scaling, and using DPIs that are safe and inclusive. This includes identifying what we know (and do not yet know) around different DPI design choices and models, implementation strategies, procurement, issues around use case integration and sequencing of DPI, and more. • Principles and Practical Lessons: Finally, it summarizes key lessons from countries’ experiences with DPI to date, highlighting critical success factors and risk mitigation strategies for policymakers, practitioners, and development partners. A separate volume provides examples of DPI from countries around the globe. By leveraging the opportunities presented by DPI, countries can accelerate their digital transformation journeys and achieve more inclusive and sustainable development. The World Bank Group is committed to supporting this crucial endeavor. The WBG’s new Global DPI Program will address key knowledge gaps and support countries in building safe, inclusive, and transformative DPI.Publication ICTs for Financial Services in Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014)The second most populous continent in the world and with abundant natural resources, Africa continues to grow as the world's economy currently stands on shaky ground. However, steady GDP gains are sometimes obscured by the continent's economic, political and social problems. As Africa grows and becomes more tightly integrated with the global economy, its citizens and businesses increasingly need access to financial services tools that will allow them to compete. ICT is one avenue for increasing that access as ICT and financial services complement each other. ICTs allow for greater financial inclusion, and the financial services sector is a primary driver of communications and network technology. However, the financial services sector has distinct developmental challenges. Issues of trust, consumer protection, and network systemic risks that can slow the pace of progress require clear and strong regulations. The need for policy and regulatory development is made more difficult by the speed of technological change. Nevertheless, strategic intervention through policy or public investment can play a critical role in addressing the challenges faced by the financial services sector.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.