Publication: Technological Decoupling? The Impact on Innovation of US Restrictions on Chinese Firms
Loading...
Date
2024-10-23
ISSN
Published
2024-10-23
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Recent U.S.-China tensions have raised the specter of technological decoupling. This paper examines the impact of U.S. export restrictions and technology licensing on Chinese firms’ innovation. It finds that U.S. sanctions reduce the quantity and quality of patent outputs of targeted Chinese firms, primarily due to decreased collaboration with U.S. inventors. However, firms with higher initial patent stock or in sectors with a smaller technological distance to the U.S. are less affected. Sanctions in specific technology fields lead to a decline in the patent output of both Chinese firms with U.S. collaborators and U.S. firms with Chinese collaborators.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Cao, Yu; de Nicola, Francesca; Mattoo, Aaditya; Timmis, Jonathan. 2024. Technological Decoupling? The Impact on Innovation of US Restrictions on Chinese Firms. Policy Research Working Paper; 10950. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42282 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-23)Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic adjustment. To make these comparisons, we compile a cross-country, historical database of “rate cycles” (i.e., easing and tightening phases for monetary policy) for 24 advanced economies from 1970 through 2024. This allows us to quantify the characteristics of interest rate adjustments and corresponding macroeconomic outcomes and tradeoffs. We also calculate Sacrifice Ratios (output losses per inflation reduction) and document a historically low “sacrifice” during the post-pandemic tightening. This popular measure, however, ignores adjustments in the price level—which increased by more after the pandemic than over the past four decades. A series of regressions and simulations suggest monetary policy (and particularly the timing and aggressiveness of rate hikes) play a meaningful role in explaining these tradeoffs and how adjustments occur during tightening phases. Central bank credibility is the one measure we assess that corresponds to only positive outcomes and no difficult tradeoffs.Publication Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-22)Most disaster risk assessments use damages to physical assets as their central metric, often neglecting distributional impacts and the coping and recovery capacity of affected people. To address this shortcoming, the concepts of well-being losses and socio-economic resilience—the ability to experience asset losses without a decline in well-being—have been proposed. This paper uses microsimulations to produce a global estimate of well-being losses from, and socio-economic resilience to, natural disasters, covering 132 countries. On average, each $1 in disaster-related asset losses results in well-being losses equivalent to a $2 uniform national drop in consumption, with significant variation within and across countries. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses. Compared to high-income countries, low-income countries experience 67% greater well-being losses per dollar of asset losses and require 56% more time to recover. Socio-economic resilience is uncorrelated with exposure or vulnerability to natural hazards. However, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 0.9 percentage point gain in resilience, but this benefit arises indirectly—such as through higher rate of formal employment, better financial inclusion, and broader social protection coverage—rather than from higher income itself. This paper assess ten policy options and finds that socio-economic and financial interventions (such as insurance and social protection) can effectively complement asset-focused measures (e.g., construction standards) and that interventions targeting low-income populations usually have higher returns in terms of avoided well-being losses per dollar invested.Publication From Chalkboards to Chatbots(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-20)This study evaluates the impact of a program leveraging large language models for virtual tutoring in secondary education in Nigeria. Using a randomized controlled trial, the program deployed Microsoft Copilot (powered by GPT-4) to support first-year senior secondary students in English language learning over six weeks. The intervention demonstrated a significant improvement of 0.31 standard deviation on an assessment that included English topics aligned with the Nigerian curriculum, knowledge of artificial intelligence and digital skills. The effect on English, the main outcome of interest, was of 0.23 standard deviations. Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed substantial learning gains, equating to 1.5 to 2 years of ’business-as-usual’ schooling, situating the intervention among some of the most cost-effective programs to improve learning outcomes. An analysis of heterogeneous effects shows that while the program benefits students across the baseline ability distribution, the largest effects are for female students, and those with higher initial academic performance. The findings highlight that artificial intelligence-powered tutoring, when designed and used properly, can have transformative impacts in the education sector in low-resource settings.Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Firm Foundations of Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-22)In an era of rapid global technological change, productivity growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region has decelerated. The most-productive firms in EAP, the “national frontier,” are lagging behind the world’s leading firms, the “global frontier,” particularly in the digital-intensive sectors driving innovation. This widening gap is critical, as these national frontier firms are pivotal to output, employment, and the dissemination of advanced technologies to other domestic enterprises. Detailed firm-level analysis reveals that barriers to competition are stifling incentives to innovate and are inhibiting the movement of workers and capital to more-productive firms. At the same time, inadequate skills and infrastructure are constraining the region’s capacity to innovate. "Firm Foundations of Growth: Productivity and Technology in East Asia and Pacific" argues that enhancing competition, bolstering digital infrastructure, and developing relevant skills can reignite productivity growth across the region, particularly for frontier firms. This book will be of interest to researchers, businesses, and policy makers dedicated to understanding and addressing the productivity challenges in the EAP region.Publication Productivity in the Time of COVID-19(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-26)Firms in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have been hit hard by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, with dramatic and widespread falls in sales and employment. Firm sales in some EAP countries were 38 to 58 percent lower in April or May 2020, compared to the same month in the previous year. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been particularly affected. The pandemic will have a lasting impact on productivity growth as firm indebtedness and increased uncertainty inhibit investment, and firm closures and unemployment lead to a loss of valuable intangible assets. Support for firms is needed but must be based as far as possible on objective criteria, related not only to past performance or current pain but to the potential for firms, including new firms, to thrive in the future. To avoid unduly prolonging assistance, governments should build exit strategies into the design of support measures and commit to phasing support out by linking it to observable macroeconomic indicators of recovery.Publication Green Technologies: Decarbonizing Development in East Asia and Pacific(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-19)The East Asia and Pacific region is helping the world decarbonize and is encouraging the domestic adoption of renewables. But there is an imbalance: while the region’s innovation and investment improve global access to green technologies, its own emissions continue to grow because of the reluctance to penalize carbon-intensive practices. The disparity between domestic supply and demand spills over into international trade, provoking measures by other countries that limit access to markets and technologies. "Green Technologies: Decarbonizing Development in East Asia and Pacific" argues that deeper reform of the region’s own policies will encourage the domestic diffusion of cleaner technologies and may also foster greater international cooperation—on climate as well as on innovation and trade in green goods. The book proposes a framework to guide policy on green technology development and diffusion. It will be of interest to policy makers, businesses, and researchers working at the intersection of economics and environmental policy.Publication Financial Structure and Firm Innovation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)This paper analyzes the relationship between financial structure and innovation. Analysis of cross-country micro data over 2009–18 shows that a firm’s financial sources matter for the choice to innovate and the extent to which a firm innovates. The relationship is stronger for firms relying on non-bank financial intermediaries and for firms in low-technology sectors. Moreover, the use of external sources of finance is associated with improved prospects of innovation, especially in more financially developed countries. These findings suggest that developing the financial sector can bring benefits in terms of innovation.Publication Bank Ownership and Firm Innovation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-20)This paper studies the effect of bank ownership on product innovation by borrowing firms, highlighting the role of the state, foreign, and combined foreign-state bank ownership. It uses Enterprise Survey data for more than 22,000 firms in 49 countries from 2016 to 2020, linked to Fitchconnect data on banks: their ownership, soundness indicators, and legal origins. The paper confirms that a firm's access to bank credit is associated with a greater probability of product innovation, even when adjusting for possible reverse causality. If the credit is provided by a state-owned bank, the probability that the borrowing firm will innovate increases. The analysis does not find a similarly positive effect for foreign bank ownership. But when considering the combined effect of foreign state ownership, the results are most statistically and economically significant. Although the results may not be extendable to research and development spending (a key input to innovation), the findings show that foreign state banks can serve as an additional financing vehicle to stimulate radical innovation alongside equity financiers.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Kingdom of Morocco : Poverty Update, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2001-03-30)According to the 1998-99 Living Standards Measurement Survey conducted in Moroocco, poverty showed a disturbing increase during the 1990s, regardless of how poverty is measured. This report updates the poverty profile for Morocco following the comprehensive approach suggested by the latest World Development Report (see report no. 20888 for an overview of this report). It presents a detailed analysis of 1) Poverty trends in the 1990s (Chapter 2), 2) which factors are key in explaining the observed increase in poverty (Chapter 3), and 3) the support given to the poor by Government intervention (Chapter 4). An overview of the main initiatives taken by the authorities as well as by nongovernmental organizations and private businesses in the late 1990s is presented in the first chapter; their effects, though not captured by the 1998/99 data, are likely to have a significant impact on poverty reduction in the coming years.Publication Case Study 2 - Andhra Pradesh, India : Participation in Macroeconomic Policy Making and Reform(Washington, DC, 2003-03)For the past six years, the State of Andhra Pradesh in India has been at the vanguard of efforts to modernize the economy and the state while pursuing policies to improve the lives of the poorest. The Chief Minister and head of the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu, is known by some as the "Laptop Minister" for his modernizing initiatives. He has reached out to international organizations and investors but has also maintained his base of support at home, in part through expanded programs in education, health, and rural development. "I have initiated so many things," Naidu said. "They are going on and will pay off after some time. But people need something today." The challenges facing the government are daunting. Andhra Pradesh (AP) is one of the largest and poorest states in India. Its population of almost 80 million approaches that of the Philippines, the 13th most populous country in the world. Even as its high-tech industries develop rapidly, AP's overall literacy rate remains a modest 44% and one-third of the population lives in poverty.Publication Indonesia : Oil and Gas Sector Study(Washington, DC, 2000-06)This study attempts to provide a broad, first cut review of the most pressing issues facing the sector, and to recommend ways to ameliorate or eliminate the problems. The main problems are: 1) petroleum product prices are heavily subsidized at the aggregate level and distorted at relative levels, and thus need to be rationalized within an economic framework; 2) the functions and role of the state oil and gas company (Pertamina) are problematic, and therefore Pertamina must be fundamentally restructured to eliminate the conflicts of interest and inefficiencies; 3) some of the provisions of the production sharing contracts are relatively regressive and need to be re-evaluated with a view to maximize the contribution of the sector to the economy, and to increase upstream investment by the private sector; 4) existing laws and regulations are inadequate and must be replaced; 5) petroleum products are of poor quality and must be improved, particularly by phasing out the lead from gasoline; and 6) energy sector institutions are weak and must be strengthened. Although the issues are complex and sweeping changes are needed, given the current political climate, this is an opportune time for Indonesia to begin the process. As a first step, preparing an official and comprehensive declaration of government policy for the hydrocarbon sector is critically important--needed are the vision for the sector, policy objectives, and policy actions required to solve the sector's problems.Publication Strategic Planning for Poverty Reduction in Vietnam : Progress and Challenges for Meeting the Localized Millennium Development Goals(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-01)This paper discusses the progress that Vietnam has made toward meeting a core set of development goals that the government recently adopted as part of its Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS). These goals are strongly related to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), but are adapted and expanded to reflect Vietnam's national challenges and the government's ambitious development plans. For each Vietnam Development Goal, the authors describe recent trends in relation to the trajectories implied by the MDGs, outline the intermediate targets identified by the government, and discuss the challenges involved in meeting these. Relative to other countries of similar per capita expenditures, Vietnam has made rapid progress in a number of key areas. Poverty has halved over the 1990s, enrollment rates in primary education have risen to 91 percent (although there is a quality problem), indicators of gender equity have been strengthened, child mortality has been reduced, maternal health has improved, and real progress has been made in combating malaria and other communicable diseases. In contrast, Vietnam scores worse than other comparable countries in the areas of child malnutrition, access to clean water, and combating HIV/AIDS. A number of important crosscutting issues emerge from this analysis that need to be addressed. One such challenge is improving equity, both in terms of ensuring that the benefits of growth are distributed evenly across the population and in terms of access to public services. This will involve addressing the affordability of education and curative health care for poor households. Improvements in public expenditure planning are needed to align resources better to stated desired outcomes and to link nationally-defined targets to subnational planning and budgeting processes. There is also a need to address capacity and data gaps which will be crucial for effective monitoring.Publication Improving Access to Medicines in Developing Countries : Application of New Institutional Economics to the Analysis of Manufacturing and Distribution Issues(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-03)This paper examines alternative frameworks for empirical analysis of supply side activities, namely, the manufacture and distribution of medicine, through the application of New Institutional Economics (NIE) concepts. Attention is focused particularly upon the potential utility of ideas from agency theory, transaction cost analysis and contemporary ideas from strategy theory. The major purpose of this paper is to use these theoretical frameworks to provide insight for policy makers, when faced with specific situations, whether in an international agency, or a private company, or in defining a national strategy. The analysis attempts to show the importance of distinctions between ideas of 'make' or 'buy', between 'national self sufficiency' and 'international purchasing' strategies, the limitations of contractual agreements under market governance and the crucial linkages between strategy formulation, strategy implementation and the necessary capabilities to achieve successful performance in practice. The current international situation on the investment, location and capacity of pharmaceutical manufacturing is reviewed and likely future scenarios suggested. Correspondingly current patterns of trade in medicines and their likely development within the context of the WTO and bilateral trade agreements are discussed. Against this background the promise and the pitfalls for new forms of public-private partnerships, which may offer attractive alternatives to conventional structures are evaluated. The implications of alternative future strategic options for national governments in setting the balance between health and industrial policies are examined and in particular the extent to which a national manufacturing capability should be developed or sustained. Similarly the scope for improving low cost distribution systems for medicines, based upon a mix of public and private sector channels, is assessed. We conclude with suggestions for further development of a transaction-based framework.