Person:
Mattoo, Aaditya
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Last updated
September 21, 2023
Biography
Aaditya Mattoo is Chief Economist of the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank. He specializes in development, trade and international cooperation, and provides policy advice to governments. He is also Co-Director of the World Development Report 2020 on Global Value Chains. Prior to this he was the Research Manager, Trade and Integration, at the World Bank. Before he joined the Bank, Mr. Mattoo was Economic Counsellor at the World Trade Organization and taught economics at the University of Sussex and Churchill College, Cambridge University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and an M.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford. He has published on development, trade, trade in services, and international trade agreements in academic and other journals and his work has been cited in the Economist, Financial Times, New York Times, and Time Magazine.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 66
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Publication
The Internet and Chinese Exports in the Pre-Alibaba Era
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11)This paper uses the dramatic expansion of access to the Internet in China to analyze the impact of the Internet on firm performance. The paper combines firm-level production data with province-level information on Internet penetration to examine how the rollout of the Internet across Chinese provinces between 1999 and 2007 influenced firms' export behavior. The econometric strategy enables identifying the impact of the Internet on firm performance in China. The paper shows that the rollout of the Internet boosted manufacturing exports of firms in China, even before the rise of major e-commerce platforms in the country such as Alibaba. The paper takes a closer look at why, focusing on three questions: what aspects of firm performance were affected, what types of firm communication were facilitated, and what dimensions of the new communication medium were relevant? The paper finds that the Internet not only enhanced trade, but also improved overall firm performance. The results are consistent with improvements in communication with buyers and input suppliers. The benefits arose not just from better communication, but from establishing a visible virtual presence, and were enhanced by, but not contingent on, access to broadband. -
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Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-09)Preferential trade agreements have boomed in recent years and extended their reach well beyond tariff reduction, to cover policy areas such as investment, competition, and intellectual property rights. This paper uses new information on the content of preferential trade agreements to examine the trade effects of deep agreements and revisit the classic Vinerian question of trade creation and trade diversion. The results indicate that deep agreements lead to more trade creation and less trade diversion than shallow agreements. Furthermore, some provisions of deep agreements have a public good aspect and increase trade also with non-members. -
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Labor Market Effects of Demographic Shifts and Migration in OECD Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-12)The labor force of each industrial country is being shaped by three forces: ageing, education and migration. Drawing on a new database for the OECD countries and a standard analytical framework, this paper focuses on the relative and aggregate effects of these three forces on wages across different skill and age groups over 2000 to 2010. The variation in the age and educational structure of the labor force emerges as the dominant influence on wage changes. The impact is uniform and egalitarian: in almost all countries, the changes in the age and skill structure favor the low-skilled and hurt the highly skilled across age groups. Immigration plays a relatively minor role, except in a handful of open countries, like Australia and Canada, where it accentuates the wage-equalizing impact of ageing and education. Emigration is the only inegalitarian influence, especially in Ireland and a few Eastern European countries which have seen significant outflows of high-skilled labor to Western European Union countries. -
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Pandemic Trade: Covid-19, Remote Work and Global Value Chains
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01)This paper studies the trade effects of Covid-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector-level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by Covid-19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders’ vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks. -
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Services in the Trans-Pacific Partnership: What Would Be Lost?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02)As the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) hangs in balance, an evaluation of what it offers could inform current decisions and shape future negotiations. The TPP's services component has been hailed as one of the agreement's major accomplishments. To assess the agreement’s impact on national policy in the major services sectors, we created a new public database. This database reveals that TPP commitments seldom go beyond countries' applied policies, suggesting the explicit liberalization resulting from the agreement is limited only to a few countries and a few areas. However, the TPP enhances transparency and policy certainty because parties' services commitments cover more trading partners, more sectors and are in some cases closer to applied policies than their commitments under previous agreements. Furthermore, new TPP rules, including on state-owned enterprises, government procurement and competition policy, could enhance services market access. In particular, the TPP breaks new ground in prohibiting restrictions on international data flows, while at the same time creating unprecedented obligations on all parties to protect consumers from fraud and protect privacy. These dual obligations on importing and exporting countries represent a model for regulatory cooperation that could elicit greater market opening if applied to other areas. -
Publication
Does Vertical Specialization Increase Productivity?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02)This paper investigates the impact of global value chain participation on productivity, using data on trade in value added from the World Input-Output Database. The results based on a panel estimation covering 13 sectors in 40 countries over 15 years suggest that participation in global value chains is a significant driver of labor productivity. Backward participation in global value chains, that is, the use of imported inputs to produce for exports, emerges as particularly important. An increase by 10 percent in the level of global value chain participation increased average productivity by close to 1.7 percent. -
Publication
Are Trade Preferences a Panacea? The Export Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02)Does “infant industry” preferential access durably boost exports? Using country-product-year data for 1992–2017 and triple-differences regressions, we show that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) enhanced apparel exports of African countries on average. But the impact leveled off after the Multi-Fiber Arrangement unleashed competition from Asian countries. Furthermore, the positive average impact masks regional heterogeneity: East Africa’s late-bloomers offset Southern Africa’s boom-bust pattern. Firm-level data reveal that even East Africa’s export growth was driven by entrants rather than incumbents who received large preference margins during the early AGOA years. Overall, the authors find little evidence that preferences durably boosted exports. -
Publication
Internal Borders and Migration in India
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11)Internal mobility is a critical component of economic growth and development, as it enables the reallocation of labor to more productive opportunities across sectors and regions. Using detailed district-to-district migration data from the 2001 Census of India, the paper highlights the role of state borders as significant impediments to internal mobility. The analysis finds that average migration between neighboring districts in the same state is at least 50 percent larger than neighboring districts on different sides of a state border, even after accounting for linguistic differences. Although the impact of state borders differs by education, age, and reason for migration, it is always large and significant. The paper suggests that inter-state mobility is inhibited by state-level entitlement schemes, ranging from access to subsidized goods through the public distribution system to the bias for states' own residents in access to tertiary education and public sector employment. -
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Services Development and Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05)Most manufacturing activities use inputs from the financial and business services sectors. But these services sectors also compete for resources with manufacturing activities, provoking concerns about de-industrialization -- financial services in industrial countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, and business services in developing countries like India and the Philippines. This paper examines the implications of services development for the export performance of manufacturing sectors. It develops a methodology to quantify the indirect role of services in international trade in goods and constructs new measures of revealed comparative advantage based on domestic value added in gross exports. The paper shows that the development of financial and business services enhances the revealed comparative advantage of manufacturing sectors that use these services intensively but not that of other manufacturing sectors. It also finds that a country can partially overcome the handicap of an underdeveloped domestic services sector by relying more on imported services inputs. Thus, lower services trade barriers in developing countries can help to promote their manufacturing exports. -
Publication
Trade in Developing East Asia: How It Has Changed and Why It Matters
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-07)East Asia, for long the epitome of successful engagement in trade, faces serious challenges: technological change that may threaten the very model of labor intensive industrialization and a backlash against globalization that may reduce access to important markets. A detailed analysis of the evolution of East Asia's trade and trade policy in goods and services leads to the conclusion that how East Asia copes with these global challenges will depend on how it addresses three more proximate national and regional challenges. The first is the emergence of one East Asian country, China, as a global trade giant—accounting for nearly one-seventh of global exports and one-tenth of global imports -- which is fundamentally altering the trading patterns and opportunities of its neighbors. The second is the asymmetric implementation of national reform -- remarkable openness to goods trade and investment coexists with relative restrictiveness of services policies -- which is affecting the evolution of comparative advantage and productivity in each country. The third is the divergence between the relatively shallow and fragmented agreements that regulate the region’s trade and investment and the growing importance of regional and global value chains as crucial drivers of productivity growth.