Publication: A Simulation of COVID-19 School Closure Impact on Student Learning in Bangladesh
Loading...
Files in English
2,274 downloads
Date
2021-01
ISSN
Published
2021-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This Note presents results from a series of simulations that aim to capture the impacts that school closures in Bangladesh might have on the learning levels, enrollment and future earnings of children and students using a methodological tool developed by the Education Global Practice of the World Bank . We find that overall loss in learning for every child enrolled in school even in the most optimistic scenario is expected to be substantial and the economic implications of the learning losses are huge. Available data also indicates that remote learning requires to be made more effective. It is hoped that the insights from this note will be useful for the government, non-government, private sector and civil society engaged in education service delivery as they are attempting to forge effective partnerships during and after the crisis. There is an urgent need to substantially reduce additional dropouts and absenteeism through stipends and safe school opening and communication campaigns.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Rahman, Tashmina; Sharma, Uttam. 2021. A Simulation of COVID-19 School Closure Impact on Student Learning in Bangladesh. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35043 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)School closures due to COVID-19 have left more than a billion students out of school. This paper presents the results of simulations considering three, five and seven months of school closure and different levels of mitigation effectiveness resulting in optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic global scenarios. Using data on 157 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall. COVID-19 could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 0.9 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.9 years to between 7.0 and 7.6 years. Close to 7 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $355, $872, or $1,408 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,472 and $25,680 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, like girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by the school closures. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. The world could thus face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor and be unable to meet the goal by 2030 unless drastic remedial action is taken.Publication Learning in the Time of COVID-19(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-29)This note discusses the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) and related school closures on primary students’ access to learning in Nepal. The primary source of data is a phone-survey with households that have children enrolled in public schools (grades 3-5) collected from November 2020 to February 2021. The authors describe student learning, parental perception of student levels, access to learning during school closures, and families’ emotional health during Coronavirus (COVID-19).Publication Learning Losses in Pakistan Due to COVID-19 School Closures(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)Pakistan was among the first countries in the world to institute widespread school closures as a result of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). What are the expected levels of learning that teachers will have to deal with in the class? Will children have lost learning while schools were closed? What should teachers, parents, and children expect from the first few weeks of schooling? How can parents, teachers, and the school system as a whole help children catch up? While school closures have been effective in supporting efforts at social distancing, they may well have serious consequences for schooling and learning. This note presents results from a series of simulations that aim to capture the impacts that school closures in Pakistan may have on the learning levels, enrollment, and future earnings of children and students. In this note, the authors present an overview of how these numbers are calculated and how to interpret them. This note draws on a simulation exercise for all countries on which data is available, including Pakistan, conducted by researchers at the World Bank.Publication Learners with Disabilities and COVID-19 School Closures(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-09)At the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the world quickly experienced a crisis within a crisis, a global public health emergency that exacerbated educational inequalities within a ‘learning crisis’ that was already occurring for hundreds of millions of young people who were attending school without acquiring basic skills in literacy and numeracy (World Bank 2019). Specifically, COVID-19 intensified this learning crisis through two global shocks to education: massive school closures and a subsequent economic recession (World Bank 2020b). In the spring of 2020, at the peak of the pandemic, 180 countries experienced temporary school closures, affecting 1.5 billion young people or 94 percent of the student population worldwide (World Bank, n.d.). For more than half of these students, schools would remain closed for more than seven months. A year after the worldwide spread of COVID-19, in March 2021, schools remained closed in more than 50 countries (World Bank, n.d.). Governments tried to respond to these unprecedented times by employing remote learning initiatives using both digital and nondigital formats. However, inadequate infrastructure or the absence of trained teachers who could quickly transition to online models of teaching often limited the effectiveness of such responses. This study arose from a deep need to understand the experiences of learners with disabilities during the onset of COVID-19 and the accompanying school closures. The survey was disseminated in May 2020 to inform the ‘just in time’ issues paper, Pivoting to Inclusion: leveraging Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis for Learners with Disabilities (World Bank 2020a) (referred henceforth as Pivoting to Inclusion). The Pivoting to Inclusion report highlighted important recommendations for policy makers and practitioners to provide an inclusive and quality education for learners with disabilities during school closures and future emergencies, including the use of Universal Design by Learning (UDL) and a twin-track approach to inclusive education sector planning. A twin-track approach involves two basic principles: (1) ensuring that mainstream education programs are designed for all learners; and (2) developing targeted support to address the specific needs of children with disabilities (World Bank 2020a). The findings from this survey show various examples of f these two tracks, as well as the importance of UDL in remote teaching and learning for learners with disabilities.Publication Remote Learning(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)This note discusses early results from a distance education program on foundational numeracy for primary school students in Nepal during Coronavirus (COVID-19) evaluated in a randomized trial. The trial included 3,700 households with children in public school (grades 3-5). It provided support for foundational numeracy through mobile phone-based tutoring. The trial tested delivery through public school teachers and also through NGO facilitators. It led to a 30 percent increase in foundational numeracy, with teachers being slightly more effective at producing learning gains than NGO facilitators. These results suggest that instructional support through mobile phones can be a high-access and low-cost approach to providing instruction at scale
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02)South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.