Publication: Imputing Poverty Indicators without Consumption Data: An Exploratory Analysis
Loading...
Published
2024-08-19
ISSN
Date
2024-08-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Accurate poverty measurement relies on household consumption data, but such data are often inadequate, outdated, or display inconsistencies over time in poorer countries. To address these data challenges, this paper employs survey-to-survey imputation to produce estimates for several poverty indicators, including headcount poverty, extreme poverty, poverty gap, near-poverty rates, as well as mean consumption levels and the entire consumption distribution. Analysis of 22 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Viet Nam yields encouraging results. Adding household utility expenditures or food expenditures to basic imputation models with household-level demographic, employment, and asset variables could improve the probability of imputation accuracy by 0.1 to 0.4. Adding predictors from geospatial data could further increase imputation accuracy. The analysis also shows that a larger time interval between surveys is associated with a lower probability of predicting some poverty indicators, and that a better imputation model goodness-of-fit (R2) does not necessarily help. The results offer cost-saving inputs for future survey design.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Kilic, Talip; Abanokova, Kseniya; Carletto, Calogero; Abanokova, Ksenia. 2024. Imputing Poverty Indicators without Consumption Data: An Exploratory Analysis. Policy Research Working Paper; 10867. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42055 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Poverty Imputation in Contexts without Consumption Data(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)A key challenge with poverty measurement is that household consumption data are often unavailable or infrequently collected or may be incomparable over time. In a development project setting, it is seldom feasible to collect full consumption data for estimating the poverty impacts. While survey-to-survey imputation is a cost-effective approach to address these gaps, its effective use calls for a combination of both ex-ante design choices and ex-post modeling efforts that are anchored in validated protocols. This paper refines various aspects of existing poverty imputation models using 14 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Vietnam. The analysis reveals that including an additional predictor that captures household utility consumption expenditures—as part of a basic imputation model with household-level demographic and employment variables—provides poverty estimates that are not statistically significantly different from the true poverty rates. In many cases, these estimates even fall within one standard error of the true poverty rates. Adding geospatial variables to the imputation model improves imputation accuracy on a cross-country basis. Bringing in additional community-level predictors (available from survey and census data in Vietnam) related to educational achievement, poverty, and asset wealth can further enhance accuracy. Yet, there is within-country spatial heterogeneity in model performance, with certain models performing well for either urban areas or rural areas only. The paper provides operationally-relevant and cost-saving inputs into the design of future surveys implemented with a poverty imputation objective and suggests directions for future research.Publication Using Survey-to-Survey Imputation to Fill Poverty Data Gaps at a Low Cost(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-26)Survey data on household consumption are often unavailable or incomparable over time in many low- and middle-income countries. Based on a unique randomized survey experiment implemented in Tanzania, this study offers new and rigorous evidence demonstrating that survey-to-survey imputation can fill consumption data gaps and provide low-cost and reliable poverty estimates. Basic imputation models featuring utility expenditures, together with a modest set of predictors on demographics, employment, household assets, and housing, yield accurate predictions. Imputation accuracy is robust to varying the survey questionnaire length, the choice of base surveys for estimating the imputation model, different poverty lines, and alternative (quarterly or monthly) Consumer Price Index deflators. The proposed approach to imputation also performs better than multiple imputation and a range of machine learning techniques. In the case of a target survey with modified (shortened or aggregated) food or non-food consumption modules, imputation models including food or non-food consumption as predictors do well only if the distributions of the predictors are standardized vis-à-vis the base survey. For the best-performing models to reach acceptable levels of accuracy, the minimum required sample size should be 1,000 for both the base and target surveys. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys.Publication Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, and Data Imputation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-12)This paper reviews methods that have been employed to estimate poverty in contexts where household consumption data are unavailable or missing. These contexts range from completely missing and partially missing consumption data in cross-sectional household surveys, to missing panel household data. The paper focuses on methods that aim to compare trends and dynamic patterns of poverty outcomes over time. It presents the various methods under a common framework, with pedagogical discussion on the intuition. Empirical illustrations are provided using several rounds of household survey data from Vietnam. Furthermore, the paper provides a practical guide with detailed instructions on computer programs that can be used to implement the reviewed techniques.Publication Educational inequalities during COVID-19: Results from longitudinal surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa(Elsevier, 2025-01-21)While the literature on the COVID-19 pandemic is growing, there are few studies on learning inequalities in a lower-income, multi-country context. Analyzing a rich database consisting of 34 longitudinal household and phone survey rounds from Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda with a rigorous linear mixed model framework, we find lower school enrolment rates during the pandemic. But countries exhibit heterogeneity. Our variance decomposition analysis suggests that policies targeting individual household members are most effective for improving learning activities, followed by those targeting households, communities, and regions. Households with higher education levels or living standards or those in urban residences are more likely to engage their children in learning activities and more diverse types of learning activities. Furthermore, we find some evidence for a strong and positive relationship between public transfers and household head employment with learning activities for almost all the countries.Publication The Important Role of Equivalence Scales(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Hardly any literature exists on the relationship between equivalence scales and poverty dynamics for transitional countries. This paper offers a new study on the impacts of equivalence scale adjustments on poverty dynamics in the Russian Federation, using equivalence scales constructed from subjective wealth and more than 20 waves of household panel survey data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The analysis suggests that the equivalence scale elasticity is sensitive to household demographic composition. The adjustments for the equivalence of scales result in lower estimates of poverty lines. The study decomposes poverty into chronic and transient components and finds that chronic poverty is positively related to the adult scale parameter. However, chronic poverty is less sensitive to the child scale factor compared with the adult scale factor. Interestingly, the direction of income mobility might change depending on the specific scale parameters that are employed. The results are robust to different measures of chronic poverty, income expectations, reference groups, functional forms, and various other specifications.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Evolution of the World Bank’s Thinking on Governance(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01)The preparation work for the 2017 World Development Report on Governance and the Law in 2016 will coincide with the 25th anniversary of the World Bank’s decision to broaden its ongoing work on public sector management to embrace key issues of governance in the Bank’s borrowing countries. This paper provides a broad overview of the major Bank reports on governance that went through a review process at a sufficiently high level in the institution that they can reasonably be described as reflecting the Bank’s considered views at the time on the subject. The objective is to review the evolution of the Bank’s thinking on governance and assess the relevance and effectiveness of the work and its implications for the forthcoming World Development Report. Section two of this paper begins with a brief account of how the Bank came to focus on issues of governance, reviewing the major upheaval of governance in many of the Bank’s borrowing countries in the 1980s, the legal constraints the Articles of Agreement impose on the Bank’s work on governance, and a brief overview of the Bank’s initial policy statement on governance issued to the Bank’s Board in June 1991. Section three reviews major Bank work on governance as reflected in successive World Development Reports and examines the Bank’s analysis of the issue of corruption, reviewing how the Bank’s thinking on this symptom of poor governance has evolved. Section four steps back to assess what the Bank got right and some of the issues it missed or failed to address adequately. Section five draws attention to the dramatic changes experienced by the developing world in these past 25 years, and points to the need to better understand the implications of these changes for the governance context facing developing countries.Publication Statistical Performance Indicators and Index(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)The World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index has been widely employed to measure country statistical capacity since its inception two decades ago. This paper builds on the existing advantages of the Statistical Capacity Index, conceptually and empirically, to offer new statistical performance indicators and the Statistical Performance Index, which can better measure a country’s statistical performance. The new index has clearer conceptual motivations, employs a stronger mathematical foundation, and significantly expands the number of indicators and countries covered. The paper further provides empirical evidence that illustrates the strong correlation of the new index with other commonly used development indicators of human capital, governance, poverty, and inequality. The framework can accommodate future directions to improve the index as the global data landscape evolvesPublication Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 21st Century(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-04)What can be learned from the governance trajectory of African countries since the beginning of the 21st century What is the quality of governance on the African continent and how does it shape development The first decade of the millennium saw promising growth and poverty reduction in much of the continent. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has also been the stage of a stream of governance reform failures and policy reversals, and many countries continue to suffer from the consequences of poor governance. This paper explores the dynamics of governance reform on the continent over the past two decades and points to four key trends. First, effective state institutions, capable of maintaining peace, fostering growth, and delivering services, have developed unevenly. Second, progress has been made on enhancing the inclusiveness and accountability of institutions, but it remains constrained by the weakness of checks and balances and the persistence of patterns of centralized and exclusive power arrangements. Third, civic capacity has risen considerably, but the inability of institutions to respond to social expectations and political mobilization threatens to turn liberal civic engagement into distrust, populism, and radicalization. Fourth, the combination of these three trends contributes to the rise of political instability, which constitutes a major threat for the continent.Publication Data Transparency and Growth in Developing Economies during and after the Global Financial Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The study explores the effects of data transparency on economic growth for developing economies over a unique time period—at the onset of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis and thereafter. Data transparency is defined as the timely production of credible statistics as measured by the Statistical Capacity Indicator. The paper finds that data transparency has a positive effect on real gross domestic product per capita during a period of considerable uncertainty. The estimates indicate an elasticity of the magnitude of 0.03 percent per year, which is much larger than the elasticity of trade openness and schooling in the estimation sample. The empirics employ a variety of econometric estimators, including dynamic panel and cross-sectional instrumental variables estimators, with the latter approach yielding a higher estimated elasticity. The findings are robust to the inclusion of several factors in addition to political institutions and exogenous commodity-price and external debt-financing shocks.Publication Economic Governance Improvements and Sovereign Financing Costs in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)Low- and middle-income country governments are increasingly tapping the global debt capital markets. This is increasing the amount of finance available for development, but at a considerably higher cost than traditional external borrowing on concessional terms. Using a novel methodology based on estimating sovereign credit ratings using the Moody’s scorecard, and examining the associations between these ratings and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment scores, this paper examines how making improvements in the quality of economic policies and institutions can help lower governments’ financing costs. This method aims to overcome the small-sample problem due to the number of rated developing country sovereigns still being relatively limited (although growing). Better economic governance Country Policy and Institutional Assessment scores are associated with better estimated ratings and materially lower financing costs; on average, improvements that are sufficient to increase the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment economic governance indicator score by one point are associated with interest costs that are lower by about 40 basis points, even setting aside the direct impact on ratings of better governance indicators. There are many reasons why improving governance is a good thing. Among them is the potential payoff to the public purse — savings of $40 million or more on a standard $1 billion, 10-year bond.