Publication: India Development Update: India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context
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Date
2024-09-06
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Published
2024-09-06
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Abstract
In India, economic growth increased from 7.0 percent in FY22/23 (April 2022-March 2023) to 8.2 percent y-o-y in FY23/24. On the demand side, growth was primarily driven by a significant expansion of investment, in particular public infrastructure investment and private investment in real estate. On the supply side, it was supported by a rebound in the manufacturing sector, benefitting from a buoyant construction sector and low input costs. India needs to diversify its exports and increase its participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs). Over the past decades, despite rapid overall economic growth, India's trade in goods and services has decreased as a percentage of GDP and India’s participation in GVCs has fallen. Exports are also relatively concentrated in goods and services that tend not to be labor-intensive. As a result, trade-jobs linkages are not fully exploited. A key factor behind this decline is the increase in import tariffs on key intermediary inputs, which has raised production costs and made producers less competitive in international markets. To achieve its ambitious export target and maximize the job creation potential of trade, India must diversify its export basket and enter new markets. Participating more actively in GVCs is crucial for doing so, and it would also boost overall competitiveness in the domestic economy and attract greater foreign investment. India's current trade policy stance features both liberalizing measures and rising protectionism. The implementation of the National Logistics Policy and digital initiatives aimed at reducing logistics costs are proactive steps towards enhancing trade facilitation and competitiveness. However, a resurgence in protectionist measures, including increased tariff and non-tariff barriers, is restricting India's trade openness. Recent Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia signify a move towards preferential agreements. However, India does not participate in mega trade blocs, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), despite potential benefits from broader trade cooperation.
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“World Bank. 2024. India Development Update: India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context. © Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42123 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”