Publication:
Leveraging Trade for More and Better Jobs

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Date
2024-09-12
ISSN
Published
2024-09-12
Author(s)
Maliszewska, Maryla
Editor(s)
Abstract
Trade exposure is traditionally seen as key to job creation and poverty reduction, but its efficacy is questioned amid global labor market upheavals and protectionist trends. Drawing on six underlying studies, this report uses disaggregated data from 1995 to 2019 to explore the nuanced impact or trade on jobs. Specifically, it investigates the impact of trade exposure on job creation, labor earnings, productivity, and job quality across countries with varying income levels. It finds that trade exposure, particularly in exports and global value chains, correlates with increased employment, especially in manufacturing where it is also associated with higher female workforce participation. Higher trade exposure is associated with increased labor earnings, with wage inequality decreasing in low- and middle-income countries due to global value chain integration. Labor productivity improves with export growth, especially benefiting unskilled workers in low-tech manufacturing and agriculture in developing countries. Job quality is also enhanced with more exports, transitioning to salaried employment positions and higher value-added activities outside of production. However, the report notes that trade exposure does not significantly boost job numbers or reduce earnings inequality in low- income countries. It also finds that the positive effects of trade on employment, earnings, and productivity have diminished following the global financial crisis of 2007. These findings Offer insights into future job and trade policy strategies.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Maliszewska, Maryla; Winkler, Deborah. 2024. Leveraging Trade for More and Better Jobs. Prosperity Insight Series. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42148 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05) Balistreri, Edward J.; Maliszewska, Maryla; Osorio-Rodarte, Israel; Tarr, David G.; Yonezawa, Hidemichi
    Evidence indicates that trade costs are a much more substantial barrier to trade than tariffs are, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into: (i) trade facilitation, (ii) non-tariff barriers, and (iii) the costs of business services. The paper assesses the poverty and shared prosperity impacts of deep integration to reduce these three types of trade costs in: (i) the East African Customs Union–Common Market of East and Southern Africa–South African Development Community "Tripartite" Free Trade Area; (ii) within the East African Customs Union; and (iii) unilaterally by the East African Customs Union. The analysis employs an innovative, multi-region computable general equilibrium model to estimate the changes in the macroeconomic variables that impact poverty and shared prosperity. The model estimates are used in the Global Income Distribution Dynamics microsimulation model to obtain assessments of the changes in the poverty headcount and shared prosperity for each of the simulations for the six African regions or countries. The paper finds that these reforms are pro-poor. There are significant reductions in the poverty headcount and the percentage of the population living in poverty for all six of the African regions from deep integration in the Tripartite Free Trade Area or comparable unilateral reforms by the East African Customs Union. Further, the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the populations noticeably increase in all countries or regions that are engaged in the trade reforms. The reason for the poor share in prosperity is the fact that the reforms increase unskilled wages faster than the rewards of other factors of production, as the reforms tend to favor agriculture. Despite the uniform increases in income for the poorest 40 percent, there are some cases where the share of income captured by the poorest 40 percent of the population decreases. The estimated gains vary considerably across countries and reforms. Thus, countries would have an interest in negotiating for different reforms in different agreements.
  • Publication
    India Development Update
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-06) World Bank
    In India, economic growth increased from 7.0 percent in FY22/23 (April 2022-March 2023) to 8.2 percent y-o-y in FY23/24. On the demand side, growth was primarily driven by a significant expansion of investment, in particular public infrastructure investment and private investment in real estate. On the supply side, it was supported by a rebound in the manufacturing sector, benefitting from a buoyant construction sector and low input costs. India needs to diversify its exports and increase its participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs). Over the past decades, despite rapid overall economic growth, India's trade in goods and services has decreased as a percentage of GDP and India’s participation in GVCs has fallen. Exports are also relatively concentrated in goods and services that tend not to be labor-intensive. As a result, trade-jobs linkages are not fully exploited. A key factor behind this decline is the increase in import tariffs on key intermediary inputs, which has raised production costs and made producers less competitive in international markets. To achieve its ambitious export target and maximize the job creation potential of trade, India must diversify its export basket and enter new markets. Participating more actively in GVCs is crucial for doing so, and it would also boost overall competitiveness in the domestic economy and attract greater foreign investment. India's current trade policy stance features both liberalizing measures and rising protectionism. The implementation of the National Logistics Policy and digital initiatives aimed at reducing logistics costs are proactive steps towards enhancing trade facilitation and competitiveness. However, a resurgence in protectionist measures, including increased tariff and non-tariff barriers, is restricting India's trade openness. Recent Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia signify a move towards preferential agreements. However, India does not participate in mega trade blocs, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), despite potential benefits from broader trade cooperation.
  • Publication
    Leveraging Trade for More and Better Job Opportunities in Developing Countries
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-12-19) Shepherd, Ben; Winkler, Deborah
    Trade and labor markets are intimately connected. This connection presents governments with a dual economic challenge that cannot be resolved without social compromise: maximizing aggregate gains but minimizing disaggregated costs, which can include losses to individuals and groups. This paper draws on recent research to develop a framework for thinking rigorously about these linkages. It then examines aspects of policy design and implementation that relate directly to labor market outcomes. It discusses three sets of policies that are required to help resolve the government’s dual challenge in a sustainable way: policies for people, sectors, and places. The framework includes policies to mitigate losses and facilitate movement of workers, classical trade policies, and a broad set of complementary policies that reduce trade costs. It also looks at the need for fiscal space to implement policies, and highlights the tension between tariff reductions and trade-related taxes, especially in countries where trade taxes account for a significant proportion of total government revenue.
  • Publication
    Estimating the Economic and Distributional Impacts of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-15) Estrades Pineyrua, Carmen; Maliszewska, Maryla; Osorio-Rodarte, Israel; Seara E Pereira, Maria Filipa
    This paper applies a top-down, macro-micro modeling framework that links a computable general equilibrium model with the survey-based global income distribution dynamics model to assess the economic and distributional effects of the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Reductions of tariffs and non-tariff measures, implementation of a rule of origin, together with productivity gains stemming from trade cost reductions can strengthen regional trade and value chains among Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership members. The results of the analysis indicate that in an already deeply integrated region, tariff liberalization alone brings little benefit, with estimated real income gains of 0.21 percent relative to the baseline (without the RCEP) in 2035. With liberal rules of origin, the gains in real income could double to 0.49 percent. The biggest benefits accrue when the productivity gains are considered, increasing real income by as much as 2.5 percent for the trade bloc. In this scenario, trade among RCEP members increases by 12.3 percent in 2035 relative to the baseline. The RCEP also has the potential to lift 27 million additional people to middle-class status by 2035. It will also boost wages, with faster gains in sectors that employ larger shares of women. The aggregate effects mask large variety of outcomes across countries, with Vietnam expected to register the highest trade and income gains. Implementation of the RCEP help partially mitigate the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 in the East Asia and the Pacific region.
  • Publication
    The Challenge of Reducing International Trade and Migration Barriers
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-04) Winters, L. Alan; Anderson, Kym
    While barriers to trade in most goods and some services including capital flows have been reduced considerably over the past two decades, many remain. Such policies harm most the economies imposing them, but the worst of the merchandise barriers (in agriculture and textiles) are particularly harmful to the world's poorest people, as are barriers to worker migration across borders. This paper focuses on how costly those anti-poor trade policies are, and examines possible strategies to reduce remaining distortions. Two opportunities in particular are addressed: completing the Doha Development Agenda process at the World Trade Organization (WTO), and freeing up the international movement of workers. A review of the economic benefits and adjustment costs associated with these opportunities provides the foundation to undertake benefit/cost analysis required to rank this set of opportunities against those aimed at addressing the world's other key challenges as part of the Copenhagen Consensus project. The paper concludes with key caveats and suggests that taking up these opportunities could generate huge social benefit/cost ratios that are considerably higher than the direct economic ones quantified in this study, even without factoring in their contribution to alleviating several of the other challenges identified by that project, including malnutrition, disease, poor education and air pollution.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Cybersecurity Economics for Emerging Markets
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-17) Vergara Cobos, Estefania
    In our increasingly interconnected world, where digital technologies are rapidly transforming multiple aspects of daily life, the critical role of cybersecurity cannot be overstated, especially in developing nations. As these countries strive to harness the power of modern technology to drive economic growth, enhance public services, and elevate living standards, they concurrently face heightened risks associated with cyber threats. The increasing exposure of developing countries to cyber incidents is often compounded by various factors, including scarce resources, inadequate infrastructure, political unrest, inefficiencies in cybersecurity and technology markets, shortages of skilled cybersecurity professionals, legislative voids, and rapid rates of digital adoption. "Cybersecurity Economics for Emerging Markets" is a pioneering research work that delves into the drivers and profound consequences of cyber incidents worldwide. From economic setbacks that can destabilize entire economies to interruptions of vital services and impediments to social and economic development, the impacts of cyber incidents are far-reaching. This book analyzes hundreds of scholarly works and thousands of publicly disclosed cyber incidents over the past decade across some 190 countries. It sheds light on these incidents’ characteristics and trends, as well as the proactive roles that private market players and governments can assume to safeguard infrastructure in cyberspace effectively. The book presents practical, evidence-based policy suggestions that include efforts to strengthen the resilience of the most essential and interconnected sectors. It advocates for bolstering the national cybersecurity industries, strategizing cybersecurity research and development, addressing market failures through cybersecurity awareness and training programs, and taking proactive steps to reduce and control contagion effects from cyber incidents. By revealing crucial empirical and theoretical dimensions of cybersecurity economics, this book provides insights that could inform the creation of effective cybersecurity investments, with a focus on developing countries. These insights are invaluable for policy makers and stakeholders committed to fortifying the digital ecosystem against the ever-evolving landscape of cyber threats.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01) World Bank
    Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.
  • Publication
    World Bank Annual Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) World Bank
    This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.