Publication: China's and India's
Challenge to Latin America : Opportunity or Threat?
Loading...
An error occurred retrieving the object's statistics
Published
2009
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Olarreaga, Marcelo
Perry, Guillermo E.
Editor(s)
Abstract
China's and India's fast economic growth since 1990 is paralleled only by their growing presence in policy discussions throughout the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. The success of these Asian countries is looked upon with admiration, but there is also concern about the effects that growing Chinese and Indian exports may have on the manufacturing and service sectors throughout LAC. Blame for the private sector's poor performance in some LAC countries often falls on the growing presence of China, and to a lesser extent India, in world markets. The rest of this introduction is organized as follows: the next section summarizes the evidence on the positive aggregate effects of China's and India's growth in world trade markets, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and innovation activities on LAC economies, and is followed by a section presenting evidence on the effects of China's and India's growth within industries, concluding that negative effects are limited to certain manufacturing and service sectors, in particular in Mexico and to a lesser extent in Central America and the Caribbean. Next is a section that summarizes evidence of the effects of China's and India's growth on specialization patterns and factor adjustments, and actual and potential policy responses by LAC governments. The final section summarizes policy implications.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel; Perry, Guillermo E.. 2009. China's and India's
Challenge to Latin America : Opportunity or Threat?. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2591 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication China and the World Trading System(2011-12-01)The World Trade Organization has been until recently an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the largest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Although China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. The first is a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the World Trade Organization process to previous successes. The second is new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broadly non-discriminatory trading order.Publication Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan(World Bank, 2012-01-03)In 2010, Kazakhstan entered into a customs union with Belarus and Russia. The first, relatively easy step in the implementation of the customs union was accomplished in 2010 with the adoption of a common external tariff, with varying exceptions in each of the three member countries. It is the intention of the customs union to eliminate the exceptions, in phases, by 2015. In fact, the goals of the customs union are much more ambitious than implementation of the common external tariff. The governments of the member countries are working to achieve deep integration in key areas. Clearly, successfully addressing the challenge of reducing trade-facilitation costs is a major task that requires significant institutional development both in Kazakhstan and in the other member countries of the customs union. It is very difficult, however, to assess the probability of success that the customs union will have with the reduction of these costs.Publication Why Trade Facilitation Matters to Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-09)This paper reviews data and research on trade costs for Sub-Saharan African countries. It focuses on: border-related costs, transport costs, costs related to behind-the border issues, and the costs of compliance with rules of origin specific to preferential trade agreements. Trade costs are, on average, higher for African countries than for other developing countries. Using gravity-model estimates, the authors compute ad-valorem equivalents of improvements in trade indicators for a sample of African countries. The evidence suggests that the gains for African exporters from improving the trade logistics half-way to the level in South Africa is more important than a substantive cut in tariff barriers. As an example, improving logistics in Ethiopia half-way to the level in South Africa would be roughly equivalent to a 7.5 percent cut in tariffs faced by Ethiopian exporters.Publication Conclude Doha : It Matters!(2009-11-01)The Doha Round must be concluded not because it will produce dramatic liberalization but because it will create greater security of market access. Its conclusion would strengthen, symbolically and substantively, the WTO s valuable role in restraining protectionism in the current downturn. What is on the table would constrain the scope for tariff protection in all goods, ban agricultural export subsidies in the industrial countries and sharply reduce the scope for distorting domestic support - by 70 per cent in the EU and 60 per cent in the US. Average farm tariffs that exporters face would fall to 12 per cent (from 14.5 per cent) and the tariffs on exports of manufactures to less than 2.5 per cent (from about 3 per cent). There are also environmental benefits to be captured, in particular disciplining the use of subsidies that encourage over-fishing and lowering tariffs on technologies that can help mitigate global warming. An agreement to facilitate trade by cutting red tape will further expand trade opportunities. Greater market access for the least-developed countries will result from the "duty free and quota free" proposal and their ability to take advantage of new opportunities will be enhanced by the Doha-related "aid for trade" initiative. Finally, concluding Doha would create space for multilateral cooperation on critical policy matters that lie outside the Doha Agenda, most urgently the trade policy implications of climate change mitigation.Publication Incentives, Exports and International Competitiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa : Lessons from the Apparel Industry(Washington, DC, 2011-05-09)This country-level analysis of international trading patterns examines all sub-Saharan (SSA) countries for which trade data exist. Firm-level analysis is restricted to five countries: Kenya, Mauritius, Madagascar, Swaziland, and Lesotho, for which enterprise surveys are available from the period just before or after the elimination of the final quotas in 2005, under the Agreement for Textiles and Clothing (ATC). Comparators were selected from Asia (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam), and North Africa (Morocco, Egypt), as benchmarks for the SSA countries, and also to examine their performance relative to normal world trading patterns and volumes. The findings, along with corresponding policy recommendations, are summarized, and key issues are addressed, including which countries adjusted to this with lowest cost; what lessons can the SSA countries draw from this episode in their negotiation and exploitation of trade preferences offered by the US, EU and other potential markets; and how does an SSA country create or attract an export-ready apparel firm. Does the poor performance of sub-Saharan African (SSA) exporters in the period since the removal of quotas in 2005, imply that SSA countries do not have a comparative advantage in apparel, and thus should focus development efforts on other sectors? This report focussed on the evolution of the apparel trade with the removal of ATC quotas. It is important, though, to recognize that African apparel exporters have now been through two negative shocks, the end of trade diversion with the ending of the ATC quota system, and the trade elimination through demand reduction in the US and EU in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.