Publication: Net Zero Energy by 2060: Charting the Path of Europe and Central Asia toward a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future
Loading...
Published
2024-06-07
ISSN
Date
2024-06-07
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
In the long term, both energy security and decarbonization in the region will depend on substantial increases in national climate ambitions. Achieving those increases will depend, in turn, on equally substantial increases in investment in low-carbon technologies, accompanied by timely policies and regulatory measures. The World Bank has developed a whole-energy-system model, data driven, technology rich, and bottom-up, to project optimal least-cost pathways for Europe and Central Asia to achieve a net zero energy target by 2060. This Live Wire is based on a report published in March 2024 (World Bank and ESMAP 2024).
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Doczi, Szilvia. 2024. Net Zero Energy by 2060: Charting the Path of Europe and Central Asia toward a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future. Live Wire; 2024/132. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41672 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Measuring the Climate Resilience of the Power Sector: Harmonization, Not Homogenization(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-31)Although by its very nature climate resilience can never be fully “standardized”, the development and mainstreaming of climate resilience metrics can benefit from greater consensus around key topics. Areas such as metric categories, methodologies, and reporting frameworks can be aligned through coordinated efforts among regulators, utilities, and other stakeholders, enabling more consistent, effective, and scalable resilience planning across the sector. The key is harmonization and not homogenization.Publication Exploiting the Potential of Energy Efficiency in Residential Buildings(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-31)The residential sector makes up about 70 percent of building energy demand. This demand is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade. Although the sector offers huge potential for energy efficiency gains, a range of barriers impedes the realization of these benefits. Fortunately, a wealth of global experience shows how these challenges can be overcome through a combination of sound planning, strong policy and regulatory frameworks, well designed financing and incentives, robust institutional and market development, and accessible information to scale up residential energy efficiency.Publication Decarbonizing Ammonia and Nitrogen Fertilizers with Clean Hydrogen(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-12)Synthetic fertilizers are essential to sustaining the world’s population, but their production is responsible for 1.8–2.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Clean hydrogen holds growing potential (amid falling costs) to decarbonize fertilizer production. Hydrogen produces synthetic ammonia, a building block of most fertilizers. With the fertilizer market as a reliable off-taker, this shift could support the overall expansion of clean hydrogen, even as it boosts global food security. However, this transition may require adjustments, including changes in fertilizer types and modifications to existing subsidy schemes.Publication Shared Infrastructure for Clean Hydrogen(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-31)Studies of the development of clean hydrogen have often focused on the production side. Infrastructure built and used for storage and transportation warrants more attention. Among the topics that should be assessed are system design, operation, integration, and ownership; market design and governance; and planning. This Live Wire examines case studies and literature on the infrastructure for hydrogen hubs, with an emphasis on the benefits of shared infrastructure. Given the breadth of hydrogen production and infrastructure, the focus is on renewable hydrogen production for domestic use and for export after conversion to ammonia.Publication Using Biomass or Green Ammonia to Replace Coal in Existing Thermal Power Plants(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-06)Finding fuel sources to replace coal in power plants is crucial in the march toward decarbonization. Biomass and ammonia are two options offering significant potential. Both can be used with coal or alone in newly constructed facilities or in modified power plants. Relatively new power plants are good candidates for modification. While work is underway demonstrating the feasibility of each material, there are logistical challenges to address, particularly in the case of ammonia.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Digitally Financed Energy(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03)The expansion of digital finance systems in the developing world has altered this financial context and enabled new business models that rely on small, regular payments. In the off-grid energy sector a group of solar companies, primarily in East Africa and South Asia, are leveraging digital finance to offer pay-as-you-go (PAYG) energy. This brief explains how digital finance is enabling PAYG energy expansion, which in turn provides a gateway to a range of financial products for the financially excluded.Publication Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation : A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models(2009-03-01)This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.Publication Clean Stove Initiative Forum Proceedings : Beijing, China, April 26-29, 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-11)The objectives of the second EAP CSI Regional Forum are twofold. The first is to share the progress, findings, and challenges of implementing the initiative s second phase. The second is to promote South-South collaboration, learning, and knowledge-sharing, with a focus on China s experiences. The forum is being held in Beijing on April 28, 2014, as part of a four-day event (April 26 29, 2014). A two-day, pre-forum event held April 26 27 focuses on participation in the 8th China Clean Stoves Expo in Langfang, Hebei province. Post-forum, South-South knowledge-exchange activities, scheduled for April 29, feature a meeting with officials of China s Rural Energy and Environment Agency (REEA) on South- South collaboration, tour of the stove-testing center at China Agriculture University in Beijing, and field visits with local stove manufacturers in Gaobeidian, Hebei province. The forum is co-organized by the China Alliance for Clean Stoves (CACS) and the REEA, Ministry of Agriculture, with funding support provided by the Australian government s DFAT, through the World Bank s EAAIG, and ASTAE.Publication Green growth, technology and innovation(2012-01-01)The paper explores existing patterns of green innovation and presents an overview of green innovation policies for developing countries. The key findings from the empirical analysis are: (1) frontier green innovations are concentrated in high-income countries, few in developing countries but growing; (2) the most technologically-sophisticated developing countries are emerging as significant innovators but limited to a few technology fields; (3) there is very little South-South collaboration; (4) there is potential for expanding green production and trade; and (5) there has been little base-of-pyramid green innovation to meet the needs of poor consumers, and it is too early to draw conclusions about its scalability. To promote green innovation, technology and environmental policies work best in tandem, focusing on three complementary areas: (1) to promote frontier innovation, it is advisable to limit local technology-push support to countries with sufficient technological capabilities -- but there is also a need to provide global technology-push support for base-of-pyramid and neglected technologies including through a pool of long-term, stable funds supported by demand-pull mechanisms such as prizes; (2) to promote catch-up innovation, it is essential both to facilitate technology access and to stimulate technology absorption by firms -- with critical roles played by international trade and foreign direct investment, with firm demand spurred by public procurement, regulations and standards; and (3) to develop absorptive capacity, there is a need to strengthen skills and to improve the prevailing business environment for innovation -- to foster increased experimentation, global learning, and talent attraction and retention. There is still considerable progress to be made in ranking green innovation policies as most appropriate for different developing country contexts -- based on more impact evaluation studies of innovation policies targeted at green technologies.Publication Africa Energy Poverty : G8 Energy Ministers Meeting 2009(Washington, DC, 2009-05-24)Worldwide, about 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity services. There are also large populations without access in the poorer countries of Asia and Latin America, as well as in the rural and peri-urban areas of middle income countries. However large-scale electrification programs that is currently underway in middle income countries and the poor countries of Asia will increase household electricity access more rapidly than in sub-Saharan Africa. Africa has the lowest electrification rate of all the regions at 26 percent of households, meaning that as many as 547 million people are without access to electricity. On current trends less than half of African countries will reach universal access to electricity even by 2050. Without access to electricity services, the poor are deprived of opportunities to improve their living standards and the delivery of health and education services is compromised when electricity is not available in clinics, in schools and in the households of students and teachers. The total financing needs for Africa to resolve the power supply crisis are of the order of approximately US$40 billion per annum or 6.4 percent of region's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In response to the power crisis, donors have increased their support to the power sector, though more is needed. From the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, donor assistance for the African power sector averaged no more than US$500 million per year. The private sector will be key to energy access expansion. For example, private sector expertise will be needed to develop the large complex generation and transmission projects (especially cross-border projects) that are necessary and for which a project finance approach will be often the most appropriate. The current global credit crisis poses additional challenges to mobilizing financing for energy infrastructure and especially for projects with perceived higher risk or higher costs. Nevertheless, governments can still access finance in the private markets for sound investments.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22)Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.Publication Comoros Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18)The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2025: A Longer View(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-24)East Asia and Pacific (EAP) outpaced most regions in economic growth in 2024. To sustain this momentum and generate jobs, EAP countries must navigate global uncertainty and tackle long-term challenges tied to shifting global integration, climate change, and demographic trends. In its 2025 Regional Economic Update, the World Bank projects that growth in EAP will slow down to 4.0 percent in 2025, compared to 5.0 percent in 2024. Uncertainty around these projections remains high, and growth outcomes will depend on global developments and national policy choices.