Publication: Piloting the Use of Network Analysis and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Transport Operations: Preparation and Appraisal of a Rural Roads Project in Mozambique under Changing Flood Risk and Other Deep Uncertainties
Date
2018-06
ISSN
Published
2018-06
Author(s)
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology to
identify key priority areas for transport investments. The
methodology uses a geospatial data-driven approach and then
proposes an innovative economic analysis for project
appraisal. The two main steps involve (i) prioritization of
road interventions based on a set of economic, social, and
risk reduction criteria; and (ii) assessment of monetized
and nonmonetized costs and benefits of road interventions
under many scenarios covering the uncertainty on future
risks and other factors. This methodology is used at
different stages of project preparation for a rural roads
lending operation to the Government of Mozambique. In the
two regions of Mozambique considered, the analysis
prioritizes regions along the coast when combining
agriculture, fisheries, poverty, network criticality, and
hazard risk criteria. With a limited budget of US$15 million
per district, the results show that investing in repairing
and rehabilitating culverts and bridges is the intervention
that performs better under most of the scenarios.
Citation
“Espinet, Xavier; Rozenberg, Julie; Rao, Kulwinder Singh; Ogita, Satoshi. 2018. Piloting the Use of Network Analysis and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Transport Operations: Preparation and Appraisal of a Rural Roads Project in Mozambique under Changing Flood Risk and Other Deep Uncertainties. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8490. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29943 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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