Publication: Conflict and Firms’ Performance: A Global View
Loading...
Date
2024-09-09
ISSN
Published
2024-09-09
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This study provides a global analysis of the effect of conflict exposure on firms’ performance, combining geolocalized longitudinal firm-level data and information on political violence events from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019. Higher conflict exposure does not affect firm profits, as it reduces both sales and total costs. Sales decline due to the conflict-induced reduction in the availability of production inputs and the increase in informal competition. Firms react to lower sales by reducing labor costs and expenditure on other production inputs. The effect of conflict is more detrimental for firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy and that are initially at peace.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Brancati, Emanuele; Di Maio, Michele; Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M,. 2024. Conflict and Firms’ Performance: A Global View. Policy Research Working Paper; 10898. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42132 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication Chinese Imports and Industrialization in Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-12)The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high- and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. The analysis shows that a one unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. The inputs effect is disentangled from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables. The evidence shows that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employment gains. The findings are consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately.Publication VAT Exemptions, Embedded Tax, and Unintended Consequences(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-15)The value-added tax (VAT) has proved to be a highly effective tool at raising revenue in developed and developing countries alike. However, the effective operation of the VAT breaks down in the presence of exemptions. Unlike zero rates, exemptions deny input tax credits, thereby increasing production costs and resulting in VAT being embedded within the prices of goods and services. This paper develops a VAT model based on input-output table and household budget survey data for 29 European countries to examine the effects of VAT exemptions on final prices and to assess the merits of their use. Simulation results show that exemptions suffer from the same targeting problems as reduced VAT rates, but, in addition, they are non-transparent and have unpredictable and counterproductive indirect effects. These effects are in addition to the well-known distortionary impact of exemptions on production decisions, and their creation of incentives to self-supply. The paper concludes that the use of exemptions should be limited to addressing pragmatic concerns, such as the disproportionate compliance costs of small businesses and the practical difficulty in taxing margin-based financial services.Publication Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.Publication Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2025-04-04)This paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chains (GVC), crucial for informed policy-making. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two-sided) covering trade and production data. The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications over-estimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Human Capital of Firms and the Formal Training of Workers(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06)The benefits of formal training are numerous, and yet in many regions few firms utilize them. This study builds on the literature by exploring how two forms of human capital—the quality of management practices and the proportion of university educated employees—influence the adoption of formal training. Using both cross-sectional and panel firm-level data for 29 economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and six economies in the Middle East and North Africa, the study finds that firm management practices are positively correlated with the implementation of formal training in Eastern Europe and Central Asia but not in the Middle East and North Africa. The proportion of university educated workers is positively correlated with formal training in both regions, but the finding is more robust for the Middle East and North Africa. These findings imply significant heterogeneity across regions in the determinants of formal training, suggesting that policies should be context specific.Publication Management Practices and the Partial Government Ownership of Firms in the Middle East and North Africa Region(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06)A wealth of evidence has shown the positive effects of better management practices on firms. More recent evidence has highlighted that ownership matters for several developing and advanced economies. However, this relationship has not been studied extensively for economies in the Middle East and North Africa, a region where the presence of the government in the productive sphere looms large. This study contributes to this gap in the literature by exploring how partial government ownership can influence the management practices of medium and large formal firms in the Middle East and North Africa. Using two waves of Enterprise Surveys undertaken in 2013 and 2019/2020, the evidence points at a negative relationship between partial government ownership and management practices in the developing Middle East and North Africa region. A subsample of panel firms confirms these findings. Analysis conducted for firms surveyed in Europe and Central Asia in the same time frame does not show a similar negative relationship between partial government ownership and management practices, highlighting regional heterogeneity.Publication Civil Conflict and Firm Performance : Evidence from Cote d'Ivoire(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-10)This paper investigates the impact of political instability and civil conflict on firms. It studies the unrest in Cote d'Ivoire that began in 2000, using a census of all registered firms for the years 1998-2003. The analysis uses structural estimates of the production function and exploits spatial variations in conflict intensity to derive the cost of conflict on firms in terms of productivity loss. The results indicate that the conflict led to an average 16-23 percent drop in firm total factor productivity and the decline is 5-10 percentage points larger for firms that are owned by or employing foreigners. These results are consistent with anecdotal evidence of increasing violent attacks and looting of foreigners and their businesses during the conflict. The results suggest increases in operating costs is a possible channel driving this impact. Finally, the paper investigates whether firms responded by hiring fewer foreign workers and finds evidence supporting this hypothesis.Publication Displaced Persons from Ukraine in Moldova(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-13)As the number of forcibly displaced persons around the world reached a record 120 million in June 2024, the World Bank continues to deepen its efforts to understand and respond to the unique needs of these vulnerable populations. In recognition of the level of priority this issue has taken on in The World Bank, the 2023 edition of the annual World Development Report (WDR) focused on the topic of Migrants, Refugees and Societies. This WDR includes a specific call for a medium-term perspective that addresses the needs of refugees and prioritizes clear global and national responsibility sharing. The World Bank’s support for people displaced outside of their home countries is underpinned by its adherence to the Global Compact on Refugees, adopted by the United Nations in 2018. Most recently, The World Bank adopted a new corporate scorecard which includes the provision of services and livelihoods to displaced persons and host communities as one of the organizations’ 15 main results indicators.4 This study aims to identify the key impacts, needs of refugees and their host communities in Moldova and recommendations for addressing these needs. It builds on previous and ongoing assessments by various agencies, including UN agencies, to better understand the current and future implications of refugee movements and settlements in Moldova, especially in terms of service delivery, infrastructure, household livelihoods and local government capacity. This report’s survey focused on LPAs because these local officials are the primary government points of contact for displaced population in their communities as well as the interlocutors between displaced persons and national government departments. This study focuses on the perspectives of LPAs and the open-ended expressed needs and experiences of displaced persons.Publication Informality among Formal Firms : Firm-level, Cross-country Evidence on tax Compliance and Access to Credit(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-01-01)The authors use firm-level, cross-county data from Investment Climate surveys in 49 developing countries to investigate an important channel through which informality can affect productivity: access to credit and external finance. Informality is measured as self-reported lack of tax compliance in a sample of registered firms that also answered questions on a large set of other characteristics. The authors find that more tax compliance is significantly associated with more access to credit both in OLS and in country fixed effects estimates. In particular, the link between credit and formality is stronger in high-formality countries. This suggests that firms' balance sheets are relatively more informative for financial institutions in environments where signal extraction is a less noisy process. The authors' results are robust to the inclusion of a wide array of correlates and to two-stage estimation.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines : Enhancing Poverty Alleviation Through Disaster Reduction(Washington, DC, 2005-10)The Philippines by virtue of its geographic circumstances is highly prone to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones and floods, making it one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. This report seeks to document the impacts of natural disasters on the social and economic development of the Philippines; assess the country's current capacity to reduce and manage disaster risk; and identify options for more effective management of that risk. The Philippine institutional arrangements and disaster management systems tend to rely on a response, or reactive approach, in contrast to a more effective proactive approach, in which disasters are avoided, by appropriate land-use planning, construction and other pre-event measures which avoid the creation of disaster-prone conditions. To evolve to a more proactive role, it is important that a national framework for comprehensive disaster risk management be prepared and implemented. The framework should incorporate the essential steps of integrated risk management, which include risk identification, risk reduction, and risk sharing/financing. The study identified some specific areas under these key themes that would need to be addressed to improve the current system, discussed through the study. The study also found that currently, the Government and individual households bear the majority of costs caused by natural disasters. More effective options for financing disaster risk, and relieving the burden of disasters from the public sector should be explored, including the idea of a catastrophe insurance pool, and/or contingent credit facilities. Also found was that, despite the high hazard risk in the Philippines, the insurance coverage for residential dwellings' catastrophes is almost non-existent. It is stipulated the Bank should examine the ongoing portfolio to identify how its projects can support the goal of disaster risk reduction. In addition, the Bank should consider more direct support to the development of an integrated disaster management risk approach, through the provision of technical assistance and lending.Publication Building Engines for Growth and Competitiveness in China : Experience with Special Economic Zones and Industrial Clusters(World Bank, 2010)China's meteoric economic rise over the past three decades is an unprecedented "growth miracle" in human history. Since the Open Door policy and reforms that began in 1978, China's gross domestic product (GDP) has been growing at an average annual rate of more than 9 percent, with its global share increasing from 1 percent in 1980 to almost 6.5 percent in 2008 and its per capita GDP increasing from US$193 to US$3,263. Total exports have been growing at an average annual rate of 13 percent (21.5 percent from 1998 to 2007), with China's share of total exports increasing from 1.7 percent in 1980 to 9.5 percent in 2008. In 2007, China's incremental growth in real GDP actually exceeded its entire real GDP in 1979. In 2010, China is set to outpace Japan and become the world's second-largest economy. China has indisputably become an important growth engine of the global economy and a leader in international trade and investment. Rapid growth in the past decades has helped lift more than 400 million people out of poverty. These results are truly impressive. While China's rapid rise has become a hot topic for development debate among policy makers, business people, and scholars all over the world, the numerous special economic zones (SEZs) and industrial clusters that have sprung up since the reforms are undoubtedly two important engines for driving the country's growth.Publication Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition(Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank, 2016-09-13)The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.Publication The Philippines Parametric Catastrophe Risk Insurance Program Pilot(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The Philippine Parametric Catastrophe Risk Insurance Program (the ‘parametric program’) represents a key milestone in this partnership. In July of 2017, the Philippines placed on the international financial markets a portfolio of catastrophe risk that transferred typhoon and earthquake risk from the Philippines through the World Bank to the international reinsurance market in local currency. In 2018, the GOP purchased a second insurance policy, doubling the amount of coverage. The two-year pilot has now ended, although many of the lessons learned and technical work undertaken have proved useful in the subsequent preparation and placement of the GOP catastrophe (CAT) bond in December 2019. As part of closing this activity, the World Bank commissioned a lessons-learned evaluation to help all par ties involved better understand the successes and challenges of the program, and guide their continued efforts to improve financial preparedness to disasters in the Philippines. The evaluation is also mean t to build the evidence base on parametric insurance and allow for knowledge sharing with similar programs that are being explored or implemented in other countries. This report discusses the findings from the evaluation.Publication Globalization and Firm Competitiveness in the Middle East and North Africa Region(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2002-06)Globalization has increased competitive pressures on firms. Together with rapid technological change, it has altered the environment in which firms operate. While globalization offers unprecedented opportunities for firms to act successfully, it simultaneously heightens the risks for firms lagging behind. In an open and liberalized world, increasing firm competitiveness has become a major challenge. This book provides a thorough analysis of the competitiveness of firms in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA). It is organized into four parts which detail the different issues related to firm competitiveness from global rules for business, regional business environment, corporate governance, and the key economic sectors of small/medium size enterprises, and tourism. In addition, the book also addresses key issues for the future of the region including the real challenges facing firms' operations and efficiency, the ability of MENA firms to compete in global markets, the impact of small, and medium size enterprises on the stimulation of growth, and the economic potential of the tourism sector.