Gatti, Roberta

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Gatti, Roberta

Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa

Fields of Specialization

Labor Economics, Political Economy, Social Inclusion, Economic Growth

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Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa

Last updated: April 22, 2025

Biography

Roberta Gatti is the Chief Economist of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region of the World Bank. In that role, she oversees analytical work to support the Bank’s operations and economic surveillance in countries in the region. In her previous capacity of Chief Economist for the Human Development practice group, she co-led the conceptualization and release of the World Bank Human Capital Index and oversaw the Service Delivery Indicators data initiative. Roberta joined the World Bank in 1998 as a Young Professional in the Macro unit of the Development Research Group. She has since led analytical agendas on growth, firm productivity, gender, social inclusion and labor markets, including as the Global Lead for Labor policies. She has also managed teams and lending portfolios in both the MENA and the Europe and Central Asia regions. Roberta’s research is published in top field journals such as the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Economic Growth, and the Journal of Development Economics. Roberta is also the author of numerous flagship reports, including Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa; Being Fair, Faring Better: Promoting Equality of Opportunity for Marginalized Roma; The Human Capital Project; and The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19. Roberta holds a B.A. from Università Bocconi and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. She has taught at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 45

Shifting Gears: The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23) Gatti, Roberta; Onder, Harun; Islam, Asif M.; Torres, Jesica; Mele, Gianluca; Bennett, Federico; Chun, Sumin; Lotfi, Rana; Suvanov, Ilias
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is estimated to have grown at a modest rate of 1.9 percent in 2024 and is expected to grow moderately at 2.6 percent in 2025. This is against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty, particularly in trade policy. The region is far from the frontier in standards of living, largely due to low productivity. This issue of the MENA Economic Update sheds light on a critical engine of productivity growth: the private sector. Businesses create jobs, boost livelihoods, and serve as a bastion of innovation in the economy. The MENA private sector, however, is not dynamic and is ill prepared to absorb shocks. To boost the performance of the private sector, governments in the region may need to rethink their role in engaging with markets including improving competition, the business environment, and the availability of data. Additionally, private sector businesses in the region can increase performance through better management practices and harnessing untapped talent in the region.
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16) Gatti, Roberta; Torres, Jesica; Elmallakh, Nelly; Mele, Gianluca; Faurès, Diego; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Suvanov, Ilias
This issue of the MENA Economic Update presents a summary of recent macroeconomic trends, including an update of the conflict centered in Gaza and its regional spillovers, alongside an analysis of factors that shape the long-term growth potential of the region, with special attention to the persistent effects of conflicts. A modest uptick in growth is forecast for 2024, which nonetheless masks important disparities within the region. The acceleration is driven by the high-income oil exporters, while growth is expected to decelerate among developing MENA countries, both developing oil exporters and developing oil importers. Despite current challenges, the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labor market, leveraging its strategic location, and promoting innovation. Closing the gender employment gap, rethinking the footprint of the public sector, and facilitating technology transfers through trade under enhanced data quality and transparency can help the region leap toward the frontier. Peace is a pre-condition for catching up to the frontier, as conflict can undo decades of progress, delaying economic development by generations.
Conflict and Debt in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-15) Gatti, Roberta; Bennett, Federico; Assem, Hoda; Lotfi, Rana; Mele, Gianluca; Suvanov, Ilias; Islam, Asif M.
The global economy is in its third year of deceleration amidst declining inflation and oil prices. The MENA region grew at 1.9 percent in 2023 and is forecasted to grow at 2.7 percent in 2024. And for the first time since the pandemic, MENA oil exporters and importers will grow at similar rates. The tragedy of the conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty. Rising debt leaves many countries in the region exposed. This report unpacks the nature of debt in the region. Oil importers have been unable to either inflate or grow out of debt. Exchange rate fluctuations, and particularly stock flow adjustments (SFA) play a sizeable role. The report highlights the need to address debt transparency. Extrabudgetary items, especially for developing oil importers, need to be accounted for. Primary balances are key, but only to the extent that they capture the true state of government finances.
Extreme Weather Shocks and Firms in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-19) Zaveri, Esha; Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M.
The Middle East and North Africa is the most water scarce region in the world. Although studies have explored the effect of extreme weather events on agriculture, much less is known about the effect on businesses. Using geocoded firm-level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys across the Middle East and North Africa region, this study analyzes the effects of precipitation shocks on firm performance. The findings show that firms in areas that experience negative precipitation shocks have lower sales, labor productivity, and investment. The study tests a number of channels identified in the literature. Poor infrastructure, such as water and electricity outages, and lower access to finance that occur as a result of negative precipitation shocks are found to be key channels. Negative precipitation increases the share of temporary workers, possibly explaining the drop in labor productivity. A new channel of governance is also uncovered—negative precipitation shocks increase the time spent by senior management in dealing with regulations and expectations of solicitations of bribes. The results also show that firms respond to precipitation shocks by adopting greener practices, suggesting scope for adaptation in the region.
Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023-04-06) Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Islam, Asif M.; Andree, Bo, Pieter Johannes; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Bennett, Federico; Assem, Hoda
Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich, thus compounding food insecurity in MENA that had been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of hundreds of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making.
Balancing Act: Jobs and Wages in the Middle East and North Africa When Crises Hit
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-05) Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Elmallakh, Nelly; Torres, Jesica; Silva, Joana; Lotfi, Rana; Suvanov, Ilias
Covid-19. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commodity price volatility. The rise of global inflation and interest rates. Currency depreciations among indebted middle-income economies. And now, natural disasters. As a sequence of events, the consequences can be both tragic and long-lasting. After analyzing the macroeconomic prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, this edition of the regional Economic Update assesses the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods of the people of MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 after experiencing an oil-price induced growth spurt in 2022 among the high-income oil exporters of the region. Yet as the region continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 shock and navigates the heightened volatility in its terms of trade, the region’s labor force is contending with the ramifications for their livelihoods of the inflationary pressures associated with currency fluctuations in some countries. The authors estimate that the macroeconomic shocks of 2020-22 led to an additional 5.1 million individuals becoming unemployed in MENA. Will these shocks permanently scar the hard-working people of MENA? The report answers this question by highlighting the trade-offs facing labor markets when facing macroeconomic shocks. A critical trade-off pertains to the loss of jobs versus decreases in real incomes, neither of which is desirable. The report advocates for maintaining the flexibility of real wages and discusses policy options to support the most vulnerable.
Thirsty Business: A Global Analysis of Extreme Weather Shocks on Firms
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-25) Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M.; Maue, Casey; Zaveri, Esha
Using global data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys that includes the precise geo-location of surveyed firms, this paper examines how dry spells and precipitation shocks influence firm performance. The study finds that firms in areas that experience dry spells have lower performance in terms of sales. This is particularly true for smaller firms and those in developing economies. A higher number of extreme dry days also increases the chances that a firm will exit the market. The main channels are largely through labor productivity and infrastructure service disruptions such as water and power outages. There is also some evidence of limited access to finance due to negative precipitation shocks. Governance may be an exacerbating factor, with negative precipitation shocks increasing exposure to corruption. Yet, there is also some indication that digitally connected and innovative firms are more resilient to negative precipitation shocks. Process innovation, website ownership, and use of technology licensed from foreign firms mediate the effects of negative precipitation shocks on firm performance. However, there is little evidence of adaptation. Negative precipitation shocks have no effect on the presence of green management practices or green investments for a subset of firms for which such data is available.
Caseloads and Competence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Fundamental Reassessment of the Human Resources Crisis in Primary Health Care
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-24) Daniels, Benjamin; Das, Jishnu; Gatti, Roberta; Yi Chang, Andres
This paper presents a fundamental reassessment of the global human resources crisis in primary health care, using nationally representative survey data from 7,915 health facilities across 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. The reassessment consists of three main parts. First, in contrast to a literature that posits pervasive health workforce shortages, the paper estimates that the median primary health care provider sees 10.9 patients each day and spends under two hours doing so. However, variation in patient loads across facilities implies that most patients visit busier facilities, and therefore the median patient experiences long wait times. Second, by combining caseload data with measures of medical competence for 14,367 individual providers, the paper demonstrates that provider caseload is very weakly correlated with medical competence. As a result, the most competent doctors in each system are nearly as likely to be underutilized as the least competent. Third, the paper assesses how much productivity is lost due to the low observed correlation between caseload and competence, by calculating potential quality improvements from matching the most competent providers to the busiest postings. Such transfers could increase the likelihood that a patient sees a provider who can correctly manage simple cases by 4.5 percentage points, or 12 percent, but with substantial variation across countries. The paper concludes that in half of the countries in the sample, there are substantial numbers of competent but underutilized providers; but in the other half, quality improvements will require a full overhaul of the training infrastructure and spatial distribution of facilities.
Conflict and Firms’ Performance: A Global View
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-09) Brancati, Emanuele; Di Maio, Michele; Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M,
This study provides a global analysis of the effect of conflict exposure on firms’ performance, combining geolocalized longitudinal firm-level data and information on political violence events from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019. Higher conflict exposure does not affect firm profits, as it reduces both sales and total costs. Sales decline due to the conflict-induced reduction in the availability of production inputs and the increase in informal competition. Firms react to lower sales by reducing labor costs and expenditure on other production inputs. The effect of conflict is more detrimental for firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy and that are initially at peace.
A New State of Mind: Greater Transparency and Accountability in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-05) Belhaj, Ferid; Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Sergenti, Ernest John; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Assem, Hoda
The MENA region is facing important vulnerabilities, which the current crises—first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine—have exacerbated. Prices of food and energy are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates from the global tightening of monetary policy are making debt service more burdensome. Part I explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA. MENA countries are facing diverging paths for future growth. Oil Exporters have seen windfall increases in state revenues from the rise in hydrocarbon prices, while oil importers face heightened stress and risk—from higher import bills, especially for food and energy, and the depreciation of local currencies in some countries. Part II of this report argues that poor governance, and, in particular, the lack of government transparency and accountability, is at the root of the region’s development failings—including low growth, exclusion of the most disadvantaged and women, and overuse of such precious natural resources as land and water.