Publication: Balancing Act: Jobs and Wages in the Middle East and North Africa When Crises Hit
Loading...
Files in English
5,964 downloads
Date
2023-10-05
ISSN
Published
2023-10-05
Author(s)
Elmallakh, Nelly
Lotfi, Rana
Suvanov, Ilias
Editor(s)
Abstract
Covid-19. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Commodity price volatility. The rise of global inflation and interest rates. Currency depreciations among indebted middle-income economies. And now, natural disasters. As a sequence of events, the consequences can be both tragic and long-lasting. After analyzing the macroeconomic prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, this edition of the regional Economic Update assesses the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods of the people of MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 after experiencing an oil-price induced growth spurt in 2022 among the high-income oil exporters of the region. Yet as the region continues to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 shock and navigates the heightened volatility in its terms of trade, the region’s labor force is contending with the ramifications for their livelihoods of the inflationary pressures associated with currency fluctuations in some countries. The authors estimate that the macroeconomic shocks of 2020-22 led to an additional 5.1 million individuals becoming unemployed in MENA. Will these shocks permanently scar the hard-working people of MENA? The report answers this question by highlighting the trade-offs facing labor markets when facing macroeconomic shocks. A critical trade-off pertains to the loss of jobs versus decreases in real incomes, neither of which is desirable. The report advocates for maintaining the flexibility of real wages and discusses policy options to support the most vulnerable.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Elmallakh, Nelly; Torres, Jesica; Silva, Joana; Lotfi, Rana; Suvanov, Ilias. 2023. Balancing Act: Jobs and Wages in the Middle East and North Africa When Crises Hit. MENA Economic Update, October 2023. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40390 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Growth in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16)This issue of the MENA Economic Update presents a summary of recent macroeconomic trends, including an update of the conflict centered in Gaza and its regional spillovers, alongside an analysis of factors that shape the long-term growth potential of the region, with special attention to the persistent effects of conflicts. A modest uptick in growth is forecast for 2024, which nonetheless masks important disparities within the region. The acceleration is driven by the high-income oil exporters, while growth is expected to decelerate among developing MENA countries, both developing oil exporters and developing oil importers. Despite current challenges, the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labor market, leveraging its strategic location, and promoting innovation. Closing the gender employment gap, rethinking the footprint of the public sector, and facilitating technology transfers through trade under enhanced data quality and transparency can help the region leap toward the frontier. Peace is a pre-condition for catching up to the frontier, as conflict can undo decades of progress, delaying economic development by generations.Publication Shifting Gears: The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23)The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is estimated to have grown at a modest rate of 1.9 percent in 2024 and is expected to grow moderately at 2.6 percent in 2025. This is against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty, particularly in trade policy. The region is far from the frontier in standards of living, largely due to low productivity. This issue of the MENA Economic Update sheds light on a critical engine of productivity growth: the private sector. Businesses create jobs, boost livelihoods, and serve as a bastion of innovation in the economy. The MENA private sector, however, is not dynamic and is ill prepared to absorb shocks. To boost the performance of the private sector, governments in the region may need to rethink their role in engaging with markets including improving competition, the business environment, and the availability of data. Additionally, private sector businesses in the region can increase performance through better management practices and harnessing untapped talent in the region.Publication Conflict and Debt in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-15)The global economy is in its third year of deceleration amidst declining inflation and oil prices. The MENA region grew at 1.9 percent in 2023 and is forecasted to grow at 2.7 percent in 2024. And for the first time since the pandemic, MENA oil exporters and importers will grow at similar rates. The tragedy of the conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty. Rising debt leaves many countries in the region exposed. This report unpacks the nature of debt in the region. Oil importers have been unable to either inflate or grow out of debt. Exchange rate fluctuations, and particularly stock flow adjustments (SFA) play a sizeable role. The report highlights the need to address debt transparency. Extrabudgetary items, especially for developing oil importers, need to be accounted for. Primary balances are key, but only to the extent that they capture the true state of government finances.Publication Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023-04-06)Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich, thus compounding food insecurity in MENA that had been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of hundreds of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making.Publication Inclusion and Resilience : The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa, OVERVIEW(Washington, DC, 2012-09)The report aims to meet two broad objectives: (a) enhance knowledge about the current state of existing social safety nets (SSNs) and assess their effectiveness in responding to new and emerging challenges to the poor and vulnerable in the region by bringing together new evidence, data, and country-specific analysis; and (b) open up and inform a debate on feasible policy options to make SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative. First chapter, 'a framework for SSN reform,' describes and illustrates the reasons for the region's growing need for SSN reform and establishes the framework for renewed SSNs. It identifies key goals for SSNs (promoting social inclusion, livelihood, and resilience) and illustrates how these goals have been achieved in some parts of the region and elsewhere. Second chapter, 'key challenges that call for renewed SSNs,' analyzes the challenges facing the region's poor and vulnerable households, which SSNs could focus on as a priority. Two large groups are at higher-than-average poverty risk: children and those who live in rural or lagging areas. The chapter examines factors such as inequality of opportunities and lack of access to services that can perpetuate the lower human development outcomes among the poor in these groups. It also describes the challenge of vulnerability. Finally, it identifies particular social groups that are at a higher risk of exclusion from access to services and employment. Third chapter, 'the current state of SSNs in the Middle East and North Africa,' analyzes SSN spending and assesses different aspects of the SSN systems' performance. Fourth chapter, 'the political economy of SSN reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: what do citizens want?' presents new evidence on citizens' preferences concerning redistribution and SSN design, using newly collected data. It also discusses how political economy considerations could be taken into account in designing renewed SSNs in the region. Fifth chapter, 'the way forward: how to make safety nets in the Middle East and North Africa more effective and innovative,' proposes an agenda for reform and the path for moving forward, using global experience and the evidence presented in the preceding chapters.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Conflict and Debt in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-15)The global economy is in its third year of deceleration amidst declining inflation and oil prices. The MENA region grew at 1.9 percent in 2023 and is forecasted to grow at 2.7 percent in 2024. And for the first time since the pandemic, MENA oil exporters and importers will grow at similar rates. The tragedy of the conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty. Rising debt leaves many countries in the region exposed. This report unpacks the nature of debt in the region. Oil importers have been unable to either inflate or grow out of debt. Exchange rate fluctuations, and particularly stock flow adjustments (SFA) play a sizeable role. The report highlights the need to address debt transparency. Extrabudgetary items, especially for developing oil importers, need to be accounted for. Primary balances are key, but only to the extent that they capture the true state of government finances.Publication Taking Stock August 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-26)Viet Nam’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.4 percent (y/y) in H1-2024 after a moderate 5 percent growth in 2023, boosted by a rebound in manufacturing exports as well as higher consumption and investment. On the production side, manufacturing, export-oriented services, and tourism posted robust growth. Despite recovering, consumer spending remained below pre-pandemic rates. Private investment growth accelerated in H1-2024 but remained below pre- Coronavirus (COVID) levels. The current account registered a substantial surplus, driven by a robust trade performance. However, a continued interest rate differential and strengthening US dollar in H1-2024 increased unrecorded capital outflows leading to a negative external position. The State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) responded to emerging exchange rate pressures through a combination of gradual devaluation, foreign exchange (FX) interventions, and tighter liquidity. The gradual rebalancing of Viet Nam’s financial system towards a more prominent role of capital markets remains an important agenda, as discussed further in this edition’s special topic chapter.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Strategic Investment for Health System Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-26)As efforts to build emergency-ready health systems intensify across the globe, Strategic Investment for Health System Resilience: A Three-Layer Framework provides a practical investment framework and a diverse set of country cases to inform decision-making and strategic resource allocations. The framework includes layer 1, risk reduction—promoting emergency-ready primary health care, public health, prevention, and community preparedness; layer 2, detection, containment, and mitigation capabilities; and layer 3, advanced case management and surge response. This three-layer framework prioritizes interventions that prevent a public health threat from developing in the first place (layer 1), limit its spread should one emerge (layer 2), and manage a widespread crisis that compromises a health system’s ability to deliver care sustainably (layer 3). All three layers play a role in achieving health system resilience, but not all of them have been leveraged equally in the past. Strategic Investment for Health System Resilience offers a glimpse of the relatively low cost of investments in improving the operation of the weakest parts of the three layers. Layer 1 functions are estimated to cost between US$2 per capita in low-income countries and US$4 per capita in lower-middle-income countries. The framework applies equally to short-term epidemics of communicable diseases and to slow-moving trends in noncommunicable diseases. The pace of the needed response to health threats can vary, but all require a system that is resilient across multiple layers of response. Although there is no universal blueprint for every setting, it behooves all countries to seize the moment and invest in the three layers in ways that fit their needs.Publication The Impact of Climate Change on Education and What to Do about It(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-02)Education can be the key to ending poverty in a livable planet, but governments must act now to protect it. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires. These extreme weather events are in turn disrupting schooling; precipitating learning losses, dropouts, and long-term impacts. Even if the most drastic climate mitigation strategies were implemented, extreme weather events will continue to have detrimental impacts on education outcomes.