Publication:
World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2021: Long COVID

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Published
2021-09-27
ISSN
Date
2021-09-24
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is suffering a reversal of fortune. In 2020, many EAP countries successfully contained COVID-19 and economic activity swiftly revived as other regions struggled with the pandemic and economic recession. Now the region is being hit hard by the COVID-19 Delta variant while many advanced economies are on the path to economic recovery. The disease is damaging the economy and is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future. In the near term, the persistence of the pandemic will prolong human and economic distress unless individuals and firms can adapt. In the longer term, COVID-19 will reduce growth and increase inequality unless the scars are remedied and the opportunities grasped. Policy action must help economic agents to adjust today and make choices that avert deceleration and disparity tomorrow.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2021. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2021: Long COVID. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36295 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2021
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-25) World Bank
    A year after the first case was confirmed in Wuhan COVID-19 is proving hard to suppress even, while the emergence of more transmissible variants of the variant poses new challenges to the containment of the disease globally. The economies of the region began to bounce back in the second half of 2020. However, only China and Vietnam have followed a V-shape recovery path with output surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels. Most of the other countries have not seen a full-fledged recovery in terms of either output or growth momentum. Economic performance across countries continues to depend on (i) the efficiency with which the virus is contained; (ii) the ability to take advantage of the revival in international goods trade; and (iii) the capacity of governments to provide fiscal and monetary support. China and Vietnam are expected to enjoy strong growth in 2021, whereas other economies in the region will grow more gradually. Many economies, especially in the Pacific islands are not expected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels of output until 2022 or later. Governments in the region need to work cooperatively to address three key issues: (i) a regional and global distribution of vaccines that minimizes the risk of a continued spread of COVID-19 and its variants; (ii) continue to provide economic support to their economies while carefully evaluating the trade-offs between the need for further stimulus and debt sustainability; and (iii) enact policies and prioritize investments that protect against climate risk to ensure sustainable economic growth.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2019
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-09) World Bank
    Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed in the first half of 2019 given weakening global demand and heightened policy uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The region’s growth prospects face intensified downside risks, including further escalation of trade disputes, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, the United States and the Euro Area, along with a disorderly Brexit, and an abrupt change in global financing conditions. In some countries, rising indebtedness and other vulnerabilities, such as the constrained capacity for foreign debt rollover, could amplify the negative effects of external shocks. The regional growth moderation underscores the need to address key vulnerabilities and preserve economic dynamism among developing East Asia and Pacific economies. In the short run, countries with sufficient policy space should use available policy tools to stimulate domestic activities. Better quality spending, together with prudent debt management, is needed to safeguard fiscal sustainability. Deepening regional integration would help offset the negative impact of global protectionism. In the medium to long term, pursuing structural reforms that raise competitiveness, support trade and investment, and encourage innovation is critical to boosting productivity and growth.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2018
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-11) World Bank
    Developing EAP grew slightly faster than anticipated in 2017. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to remain stable in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to moderate as the economy keeps rebalancing. Major downside risks include volatility associated with faster than expected monetary policy tightening in advanced economies and a rising threat of trade restrictions. Developing EAP countries would need to get ready to respond to increasing interest rates and find ways to raise potential growth in the medium run. Specifically, amid the rising risk of protectionism and changes in the global manufacturing landscape, countries should continue to enhance trade facilitation and integration, increase the effectiveness of schools and education systems, and upgrade capabilities to ensure that workers and managers have necessary skills. To provide economic security to the population, policies should focus on strengthening social assistance and insurance programs, and increasing resilience to systemic shocks.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2018
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10-03) World Bank
    Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during the first half of 2018. Although the external environment has become less favorable in some respects, the outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, primarily reflecting the continued moderation in China’s economic expansion as its economy continues to rebalance. However, heightened uncertainty has intensified the risks to the region’s outlook. An escalation in trade tensions and heightened financial market turbulence, either due to an acceleration in U.S. monetary policy normalization or contagion from other emerging markets could threaten the region’s growth prospects. To navigate uncertainty, regional economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security and promote economic mobility by: expanding and strengthening social assistance and insurance programs; investing in prenatal and early childhood development; and reducing gaps in educational access and quality for disadvantaged groups and in lagging areas.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2017
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-03) World Bank
    The economic outlook for the developing EAP region remains positive, and will benefit from an improved external environment as well as strong domestic demand. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to accelerate in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to decline in 2018 and 2019, although remain higher than most countries in the region. Poverty is projected to continue its long-term decline. Major downside risks include financial sector vulnerabilities, large fiscal imbalances, and the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions. The improved outlook for global growth provides a window of opportunity for developing EAP to continue to reduce key vulnerabilities and strengthen the foundations for sustained and inclusive growth in the medium term. The region could also benefit from further developing tourism sectors and deepening of regional integration, to offset the emerging global protectionism. And policies to ensure inclusive growth should involve ensuring economic mobility and security for all, going beyond the primary focus on reducing poverty.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Bank Annual Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) World Bank
    This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    Water Matters
    (Washington, DC, 2022) World Bank
    Water security is a matter of increasing concern across the world and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is no exception. With rapidly growing demands for water and increasing variability due to climate change, ensuring water access to all users and mitigating water-related risks should be at the center of national and regional adaptation strategies. With nearly a third of the world's water resources, the LAC region's development has been inadvertently driven by water. This rich water endowment has allowed LAC to position itself as the world's largest net food-exporting region and greenest in terms of electricity production through hydropower. Water has played a fundamental role in reducing poverty, preserving LAC's natural wealth, and accelerating economic growth. More importantly, access to safe drinking water and sanitation services has contributed to improve the health and living conditions of millions of people. Despite this progress, there are urgent water sector challenges that threaten the region's sustainable development. Access to water and sanitation services is inequitable, with greater gaps in rural, indigenous, and peri-urban communities. In addition, water-related extremes such as floods and droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, having negative effects in lower-income communities. These gaps are more likely to be broadened by unsustainable water management practices, growing demands by competing water users, increasing pollution, and climate change impacts. In LAC, inadequate infrastructure results in a lack of storage and limited investment reduces the capacity of institutions to achieve integrated water resources management and improve service provision. The Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) conducts research, convenes multi stakeholder dialogues, builds institutional capacity, and provides policy advice to water decision-makers. Focused on improving water governance, the authors aim to contribute to more prosperous and inclusive societies.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2016
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-01-13) World Bank Group
    The 2016 World Development Report shows that while the digital revolution has forged ahead, its “analog complements”—the regulations that promote entry and competition, the skills that enable workers to access and then leverage the new economy, and the institutions that are accountable to citizens—have not kept pace. And when these analog complements to digital investments are absent, the development impact can be disappointing.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2009
    (World Bank, 2009) World Bank
    Places do well when they promote transformations along the dimensions of economic geography: higher densities as cities grow; shorter distances as workers and businesses migrate closer to density; and fewer divisions as nations lower their economic borders and enter world markets to take advantage of scale and trade in specialized products. World Development Report 2009 concludes that the transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are essential for development and should be encouraged. The conclusion is controversial. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. A billion people live in lagging areas of developing nations, remote from globalizations many benefits. And poverty and high mortality persist among the world’s bottom billion, trapped without access to global markets, even as others grow more prosperous and live ever longer lives. Concern for these three intersecting billions often comes with the prescription that growth must be spatially balanced. This report has a different message: economic growth will be unbalanced. To try to spread it out is to discourage it to fight prosperity, not poverty. But development can still be inclusive, even for people who start their lives distant from dense economic activity. For growth to be rapid and shared, governments must promote economic integration, the pivotal concept, as this report argues, in the policy debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration. Instead, all three debates overemphasize place-based interventions. Reshaping Economic Geography reframes these debates to include all the instruments of integration spatially blind institutions, spatially connective infrastructure, and spatially targeted interventions. By calibrating the blend of these instruments, today’s developers can reshape their economic geography. If they do this well, their growth will still be unbalanced, but their development will be inclusive.