Publication: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2018: Navigating Uncertainty
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2018-10-03
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2018-09-25
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Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during the first half of 2018. Although the external environment has become less favorable in some respects, the outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, primarily reflecting the continued moderation in China’s economic expansion as its economy continues to rebalance. However, heightened uncertainty has intensified the risks to the region’s outlook. An escalation in trade tensions and heightened financial market turbulence, either due to an acceleration in U.S. monetary policy normalization or contagion from other emerging markets could threaten the region’s growth prospects. To navigate uncertainty, regional economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security and promote economic mobility by: expanding and strengthening social assistance and insurance programs; investing in prenatal and early childhood development; and reducing gaps in educational access and quality for disadvantaged groups and in lagging areas.
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“World Bank. 2018. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2018: Navigating Uncertainty. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30447 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-11)Developing EAP grew slightly faster than anticipated in 2017. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to remain stable in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to moderate as the economy keeps rebalancing. Major downside risks include volatility associated with faster than expected monetary policy tightening in advanced economies and a rising threat of trade restrictions. Developing EAP countries would need to get ready to respond to increasing interest rates and find ways to raise potential growth in the medium run. Specifically, amid the rising risk of protectionism and changes in the global manufacturing landscape, countries should continue to enhance trade facilitation and integration, increase the effectiveness of schools and education systems, and upgrade capabilities to ensure that workers and managers have necessary skills. To provide economic security to the population, policies should focus on strengthening social assistance and insurance programs, and increasing resilience to systemic shocks.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-09)Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed in the first half of 2019 given weakening global demand and heightened policy uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The region’s growth prospects face intensified downside risks, including further escalation of trade disputes, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, the United States and the Euro Area, along with a disorderly Brexit, and an abrupt change in global financing conditions. In some countries, rising indebtedness and other vulnerabilities, such as the constrained capacity for foreign debt rollover, could amplify the negative effects of external shocks. The regional growth moderation underscores the need to address key vulnerabilities and preserve economic dynamism among developing East Asia and Pacific economies. In the short run, countries with sufficient policy space should use available policy tools to stimulate domestic activities. Better quality spending, together with prudent debt management, is needed to safeguard fiscal sustainability. Deepening regional integration would help offset the negative impact of global protectionism. In the medium to long term, pursuing structural reforms that raise competitiveness, support trade and investment, and encourage innovation is critical to boosting productivity and growth.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2017(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-03)The economic outlook for the developing EAP region remains positive, and will benefit from an improved external environment as well as strong domestic demand. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to accelerate in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to decline in 2018 and 2019, although remain higher than most countries in the region. Poverty is projected to continue its long-term decline. Major downside risks include financial sector vulnerabilities, large fiscal imbalances, and the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions. The improved outlook for global growth provides a window of opportunity for developing EAP to continue to reduce key vulnerabilities and strengthen the foundations for sustained and inclusive growth in the medium term. The region could also benefit from further developing tourism sectors and deepening of regional integration, to offset the emerging global protectionism. And policies to ensure inclusive growth should involve ensuring economic mobility and security for all, going beyond the primary focus on reducing poverty.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2016(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-04)Growth in developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) has remained broadly stable in the past 6 months. It is expected to decline gradually during 2016-18, driven entirely by the ongoing slowdown in China, partly offset by a pick-up in the large ASEAN economies. This outlook is subject to elevated risks, and it is critical to address underlying vulnerabilities. China should continue measures to bring the growth in debt under control. Among other large economies, risk can be reduced through enhanced micro- and macroprudential policies. Across EAP, maintaining fiscal buffers is a priority; in Mongolia, Timor-Leste, and to a lesser degree Vietnam, substantial consolidation is needed. Over the longer term, China should maintain its commitment to rebalancing toward consumption-led growth. Across the rest of EAP, enhanced expenditure on infrastructure must be accompanied by measures to improve its efficiency. Boosting inclusion will require a focus on reducing undernutrition, harnessing technology to transform financial services, and exploiting innovations in social protection to reduce vulnerability to shocks. The East Asia Pacific Economic Update provides biannual analyses of development trends and economic policy issues across the East Asia and Pacific region.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-23)Despite global economic volatility, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during 2018, and in the first quarter of 2019. The growth outlook for developing EAP is expected to soften in 2019, as China's economic expansion continues to moderate. Downside risks remain, including expected moderated global demand, continued trade tensions, the risk of a faster-thanexpected financial tightening in developed economies, the risk of weaker-than-expected growth in China, and continued financial market volatility. Also, or in combination, these risks could weigh on the· region's growth prospects in the short-to-medium term. To manage global and regional headwinds, developing EAP economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security by investing in human capital and strengthen social assistance.
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