Publication: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2017: Balancing Act
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2017-10-03
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2017-09-25
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The economic outlook for the developing EAP region remains positive, and will benefit from an improved external environment as well as strong domestic demand. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to accelerate in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to decline in 2018 and 2019, although remain higher than most countries in the region. Poverty is projected to continue its long-term decline. Major downside risks include financial sector vulnerabilities, large fiscal imbalances, and the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions. The improved outlook for global growth provides a window of opportunity for developing EAP to continue to reduce key vulnerabilities and strengthen the foundations for sustained and inclusive growth in the medium term. The region could also benefit from further developing tourism sectors and deepening of regional integration, to offset the emerging global protectionism. And policies to ensure inclusive growth should involve ensuring economic mobility and security for all, going beyond the primary focus on reducing poverty.
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“World Bank. 2017. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2017: Balancing Act. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28396 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2016(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-04)Growth in developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) has remained broadly stable in the past 6 months. It is expected to decline gradually during 2016-18, driven entirely by the ongoing slowdown in China, partly offset by a pick-up in the large ASEAN economies. This outlook is subject to elevated risks, and it is critical to address underlying vulnerabilities. China should continue measures to bring the growth in debt under control. Among other large economies, risk can be reduced through enhanced micro- and macroprudential policies. Across EAP, maintaining fiscal buffers is a priority; in Mongolia, Timor-Leste, and to a lesser degree Vietnam, substantial consolidation is needed. Over the longer term, China should maintain its commitment to rebalancing toward consumption-led growth. 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Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The region’s growth prospects face intensified downside risks, including further escalation of trade disputes, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, the United States and the Euro Area, along with a disorderly Brexit, and an abrupt change in global financing conditions. In some countries, rising indebtedness and other vulnerabilities, such as the constrained capacity for foreign debt rollover, could amplify the negative effects of external shocks. The regional growth moderation underscores the need to address key vulnerabilities and preserve economic dynamism among developing East Asia and Pacific economies. In the short run, countries with sufficient policy space should use available policy tools to stimulate domestic activities. Better quality spending, together with prudent debt management, is needed to safeguard fiscal sustainability. 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