Publication:
Collapse and Recovery: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Date
2023
ISSN
Published
2023
Author(s)
Schady, Norbert
Holla, Alaka
Silva, Joana
Yi Chang, Andres
Editor(s)
Abstract
Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has been an enormous shock to mortality, economies, and daily life. But what has received insufficient attention is the impact of the pandemic on the accumulation of human capital—the health, education, and skills—of young people. How large was the setback, and how far are we still from a recovery? Collapse and Recovery estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth and discusses the urgent actions needed to reverse the damage. It shows that there was a collapse of human capital and that, unless that collapse is remedied, it is a time bomb for countries. Specifically, the report documents alarming declines in cognitive and social-emotional development among young children, which could translate into a 25 percent reduction in their earnings as adults. It finds that 1 billion children in low- and middle-income countries missed at least one year of in-person schooling. And despite enormous efforts in remote learning, children did not learn during the unprecedentedly long school closures, which could reduce future lifetime earnings around the world by US$21 trillion. The report quantifies the dramatic drops in employment and skills among youth that resulted from the pandemic as well as the substantial increase in the number of youth neither employed nor enrolled in education or training. In all of these age groups, the impacts of the pandemic were consistently worse for children from poorer backgrounds. These losses call for immediate action. The good news is that evidence-based policies can recover these losses. Collapse and Recovery reviews governments’ responses to the pandemic, assessing why there was a collapse in human capital accumulation, what was missing in the policy architecture to protect human capital during the crisis, and how governments can better prepare to withstand future shocks. It offers concrete policy recommendations to recover losses in human capital—programs that will end up paying for themselves in the long term. To better prepare for future shocks such as climate change and wars, the report emphasizes the need for solutions that bring health, education, and social protection programs together in an integrated human development system. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. The time to act is now.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Schady, Norbert; Holla, Alaka; Sabarwal, Shwetlena; Silva, Joana; Yi Chang, Andres. 2023. Collapse and Recovery: How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39403 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Acting Now to Protect the Human Capital of Our Children
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-17) World Bank
    The sanitary and economic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic brought about the most significant disruption in the history of the education sector in Latin America and the Caribbean region, leading to school closures at all levels and affecting over 170 million students throughout the region. Despite the tremendous efforts made by countries to mitigate the lack of in-person education through remote learning, education is taking a serious hit and outcomes are plummeting in the region. Learning poverty by the end of primary education could increase by more than 20 percent. Over 2 in 3 lower secondary education students could fall below minimum proficiency levels, and learning losses will be substantially larger for the most disadvantaged students. There is no time to lose. All countries must act now to make sure schools are ready to reopen safely and effectively country-wide so as to speed up the recovery process from the dramatic effects of the pandemic. They can leverage many emerging lessons and evidence, and must protect public funding for education, to enable this reopening process. While education systems face a challenge like no other, this exceptionally difficult situation also opens a window of opportunity to build back better their education systems to become more effective, equitable and resilient.
  • Publication
    Toward a Conflict-Sensitive Poverty Reduction Strategy : Lessons from a Retrospective Analysis
    (Washington, DC, 2005-06) World Bank
    This report constitutes the first year's product of a three-year program that aims to contribute to effective poverty reduction strategies in conflict-affected countries. The key questions discussed in this report are based on the lessons from retrospective case studies of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burundi, Cambodia, Chad, Georgia, Nepal, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka. The report analyzes experiences of these nine countries as they developed their first PRSP. Among the questions posed are: In what ways have Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRSs) in conflict-affected countries taken their particular contexts into account? To what extent have an assessment of the sources of conflict and the ways they interact with poverty informed the strategies? How did groups that were socially excluded or especially conflict-affected participate in the process? How did the countries plan to address sources of conflict and deal with the destructive consequences of violence? How did governments organize the PRSP preparations in divided societies, and how did international donors engage with the process?
  • Publication
    Poorer than Adults and Deprived in Almost All Counts
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03) Schimanski, Caroline; Azad, M. Abul
    Analyzing data from four waves of the Nigerian General Household Survey and the Nigerian Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, covering the period from 2010 through 2019, this study provides evidence that poverty levels of children exceed those of adults. Overall, rural children throughout the country and children in the North face higher poverty and chronic poverty rates than urban children and those living in the South without clear trends of a closing of those gaps. These findings hold for monetary poverty as well as, for severe health, education, food, shelter, water, information deprivation and improved sanitation deprivation across Nigeria’s six regions. One exception is severe sanitation deprivation, for which especially rural areas in the Southwest stand out with higher levels of severe sanitation deprivation than in rural areas in the north and any other region. Large inter-state heterogeneity of estimates within regions, ranging up to 50 percentage points, for all except severe food deprivation however highlight the importance of looking beyond regional poverty estimates and regional differences. Only state specific, but no systematic evidence has been found for a gender difference in severe educational deprivation and school enrollment rates. Existing gender gaps though seem negligible compared to the overall level of deprivation and urban-rural and north-south gaps. Moreover, the parents’ literacy and more so the educational level is highly correlated with the probability of being poor or deprived in any dimension, in particular in rural and northern areas. Interestingly, up to about half of the monetary non-poor children at the top of the consumption distribution still face at least one severe deprivation.
  • Publication
    Remarks at the Human Capital Conclave
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-05) Malpass, David
    David Malpass, President of the World Bank, discussed the importance of investing in human capital for a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery from the Coronavirus disease crisis. He highlighted three important measures: 1) investing in people; 2) efficient expenditures and good governance; and 3) freeing up fiscal space.
  • Publication
    The Puppet Masters : How the Corrupt Use Legal Structures to Hide Stolen Assets and What to Do About It
    (World Bank, 2011) van der Does de Willebois, Emile; Halter, Emily M.; Harrison, Robert A.; Park, Ji Won; Sharman, J. C.
    This report, the puppet masters, deals with the corporate and financial structures that form the building blocks of hidden money trails. In particular, it focuses on the ease with which corrupt actors hide their interests behind a corporate veil and the difficulties investigators face in trying to lift that veil. It serves as a powerful reminder that recovering the proceeds of corruption is a collective responsibility that involves both the public and private sector. Law enforcement and prosecution cannot go after stolen assets, confiscate and then return them if they are hidden behind the corporate veil. All financial centers and developed countries have committed, through the UN Convention against Corruption and international anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism standards, to improving the transparency of legal entities and other arrangements. This report provides evidence of how far we still have to go to make these commitments a reality. Narrowing the gap between stated commitments and practice on the ground has a direct impact on actual recovery of assets.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Migrants, Markets, and Mayors
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-14) Christiaensen, Luc; Lozano-Gracia, Nancy
    Research on migration and urban development in Africa has primarily focused on larger cities and rural-to-urban migration. However, 97 percent of Africa’s urban centers have fewer than 300,000 inhabitants, and a sizable share of urban migrants come from other urban areas. A more holistic and dynamic perspective, incorporating migration flows along the full urban hierarchy, as well as urban-urban migrants, is needed to better understand and leverage migration for urban development. Migrants, Markets, and Mayors: Rising above the Employment Challenge in Africa’s Secondary Cities draws on demographic data, research literature, key informant interviews, and empirical research to better understand how migrants in Africa’s secondary cities fare in urban labor markets, how they affect aggregate urban productivity, and how mayors can leverage migrants’ potential to the benefit of all. It explores these questions across countries and four urban case settings: Jijiga in Ethiopia, Jinja in Uganda, and Jendouba and Kairouan in Tunisia. Although mayors in secondary cities often see migrants as a burden to their cities’ labor markets and a threat to development, the report finds that migrants contribute increasingly less to urban population growth and that they usually strengthen the resident labor force. The report also finds that labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for nonmigrants. Africa’s secondary cities are well placed to leverage migration, but evidence-based policies are needed to manage the growth and development of land and labor markets. The report reviews policy options that mayors can take to strengthen the financial, technical, and planning capacity of secondary cities and better leverage migration to benefit migrants and nonmigrants alike. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "Much of the literature on migration to cities examines migration in a nonspatial fashion or focuses on rural-urban migration to the largest, most visible cities. This volume fills a gap by focusing on migration to secondary cities, coming up with a compelling set of facts. Overall, the volume is very well done and sets a benchmark for future research." – J. Vernon Henderson, School Professor of Economic Geography, London School of Economics
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06) World Bank
    Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    A Blue Transformation for Pacific Maritime Transport: Overarching Regional Transport
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-29) World Bank
    This report has eight chapters. Following the introduction (Pacific Peoples and the Sea), the next six chapters each focus on a separate significant component of Pacific maritime transport, analyzing the major influences and challenges, and, where relevant, key areas for future attention. The topics are: international shipping, gateway ports, domestic maritime transport, four related sectors, cruise ship tourism, tuna fisheries, fossil fuel imports, and bulk shipping, natural disasters and climate resilience, and sector governance and institutions. The final chapter, transforming pacific maritime transport, ways forward, distils the report’s findings into the most significant and far-reaching opportunities to transform maritime transport in the Pacific. These are grouped into three broad themes, infrastructure, services, and governance and capacity building. Ways Forward comes at the end and, for readers unable to view the whole report, is a good place to begin. The rest of this executive summary explains why the Pacific is a special case for investment and provides a summary of the main chapters and findings. But first, it describes which Pacific Island countries contributed to the study.
  • Publication
    Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023-04-06) Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Islam, Asif M.; Andree, Bo, Pieter Johannes; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Bennett, Federico; Assem, Hoda
    Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich, thus compounding food insecurity in MENA that had been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of hundreds of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making.