Publication: Understanding Compound Events in Fragile Contexts: Retrospective Compound Risk Analysis of Tropical Storms Eta and lota in Honduras
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2022-04-24
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2025-04-29
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The dual Tropical Storms Eta and Iota that hit Honduras in November 2020 are an example of how natural, socioeconomic, and political drivers can produce compounding impacts. Compound crises such as these hinder, and sometimes even reverse, development gains as direct losses and damages and long-term implications for fragility and macroeconomics affect poverty and prosperity. This retrospective analysis explores these risk interactions along with the available warnings and preventive actions to draw lessons for future crises of a similar nature as part of the Global Crisis Risk Platform (GCRP) of the World Bank. This retrospective case study draws on compound risk analysis methodologies and multi-hazard early warning system designs to understand the underlying drivers of risks at the time and how these could be anticipated in the future. The case study draws on peer-reviewed literature and key informant interviews, publicly accessible data, and geospatial analysis to consider compounding and cascading risk interactions in 2018–2020 in Honduras, their attendant impacts and risk drivers, and available warnings, as well as the communication and early actions associated with them. The compound risk case study draws on qualitative primary data gathered through key informant (KI) interviews, a geospatial data analysis, forecast analysis, and a literature review. The findings discuss the key impacts seen during the crisis, performance of the early warning system, and the drivers and root causes of risk. These serve as the building blocks for assessing the predictability of the main impacts and the needs for future decision support.
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“World Bank; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. 2022. Understanding Compound Events in Fragile Contexts: Retrospective Compound Risk Analysis of Tropical Storms Eta and lota in Honduras. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43137 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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